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03 April 2012

Trade deficit widened to ~USD15.2bn in Feb from ~USD14.7bn in Jan.; Edelweiss PDF link

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Trade deficit widened to ~USD15.2bn in Feb from ~USD14.7bn in Jan. Exports growth has slowed down to average 7% YoY in the past 3-4 months against ~45% YoY in Apr-Oct. However, adjusting for base effect and seasonality, exports momentum has actually improved since late last year, corroborating the trend in other indicators (PMI, IIP, etc).  Imports, meanwhile, have been buoyant on account of high crude oil prices and heavy gold imports. On full year basis (FY12), we expect trade deficit to be ~ USD180bn, leading to current account deficit of ~ 3.8% of GDP.
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