2018 Global Outlook by top brokerages: Credit Suisse, JP Morgan, BoA Merrill Lynch , Morgan Stanley , Goldman Sachs , UBS, Citi

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Credit Suisse
 We remain in the midst of the most broad-based upturn in global growth since 2010. There are clear signs of investment-led growth, something which is typically good for both markets and earnings. Also, labour does not yet have much pricing power. This keeps profit margins high and bond yields low
 Expect a modest move higher in yields, but do not expect US 10-year yields above 3%. Credit looks more risky than equities on many different metrics
 Forecast ~9% total return for global equities in 2018, largely concentrated in the first half of the year. Second half appears more challenging

JP Morgan
 Expect global growth to moderate from its recent boom pace but remain well above-potential. The rise in global long-term yields should be limited by a $700 billion increase in other G4 central bank balance sheets and the absence of rate hikes outside the US
 Looking into next year, it seems more and more tempting to turn bearish given the strong outperformance, significant P/E rerating, the likely peaking in activity momentum and an upcoming turn in liquidity conditions. However, positives (earnings upgrades) still outweigh the negatives, and therefore stay OW equities into 2018

BoA Merrill Lynch
 Expect continued above-trend growth, but see higher inflation in the US, keeping the Fed on its tightening track. Bullish macro means lower liquidity and therefore lower asset returns
 Start 2018 with a pro-risk asset allocation. However, the air in risk assets is getting thinner and thinner even though the big top in price is still slightly ahead of us. Downgrade risk aggressively once there are signs of excessive positioning, policy and profits
 Expect a H1 top in risk assets as the last flames of QE, US tax reform and robust EPS incite full capitulation into risk assets

Morgan Stanley
 The global recovery is likely to gain momentum and breadth in 2018, supported by still accommodative monetary policy and more fiscal stimulus
 Stay positive on equities for now as the global macro backdrop is likely to remain supportive over the coming months. However, as the year progresses, a number of factors that have provided oxygen for the markets in recent years will likely reverse
 At that point, expect market volatility to pick up and lead to bigger equity drawdowns at some point.

Goldman Sachs
 The macro backdrop is unlikely to be as ‘risk on’ in 2018 as there is less positive growth momentum with a gradual pick-up in inflation. However, a bad ending for "Goldilocks" in 2018 does not look likely
 Rotation from bonds to equities may have further to go. And while much more growth acceleration from here appears unlikely, the early stages of slowdown don’t have to weigh on risky assets  Pro-risk in asset allocation - overweight equities, neutral credit and underweight bonds for both 3m and 12m.

UBS
 A combination of solid growth, low but gently rising core inflation, and easy financial conditions allow space for policy makers to normalize policy further in 2018 without an accident
 Although equities are constructive, given some potential slowing in global growth momentum, 10% returns as more likely in 2018 than a repeat of 2017's nearly 20% return
 Solid growth, relatively low core inflation, and easy financial conditions imply a continuation of the low volatility regime that has supported risk assets

Citi
 2018 global economic outlook is mostly characterized by a continuation of recent developments – higher growth, steady inflation and rising advanced economy (AE) policy rates
 Expect less momentum in asset markets and more volatility, but these factors alone unlikely to lead to a bear market in risk assets