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07 February 2012

Buy Oriental Bank of Commerce; Target :Rs 310:ICICI Securities

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B a c k   o n   t r a c k   p o s t   a b y sm a l   Q 2 F Y 1 2 …
Oriental Bank of Commerce (OBC) beat our estimates with PAT of | 354.2
crore (I direct estimate: | 265.1 crore). NIM was back on track at 2.9%
from 2.6% in Q2FY12 as NII grew 10.7% YoY and 15.2% QoQ to | 1140
crore (I direct estimate: | 1060.7  crore). The bank clocked 21.9% YoY
credit growth to | 110698 crore, which the management has guided shall
be maintained at 20% in FY12E. Non-interest income growth was strong
with 27.6% YoY and 6.4% QoQ growth to | 295.3 crore. C/I ratio jumped
373 bps YoY to 42.4% as operating expenses grew 24.8% YoY. GNPA
and NNPA ratio were stable at 2.9% and 1.9%, respectively. However,
outstanding restructured assets mounted 47.7% QoQ to | 6086 crore.
ƒ NIM back on track with sharp uptick of 26 bps QoQ to 2.9%...
NIM was back on track at 2.9% in Q3FY12 after NIM had dropped to
2.6% in Q2FY12 due to interest income reversal. YoA rose 58 bps
QoQ to 12.2% while CoD inched up 22 bps QoQ to 7.9%. Priority
sector lending in Q4FY12E and rising CoD would keep a check on
the NIM. The management has guided NIM of 2.9% in Q4FY12E.
ƒ Stressed assets may remain high…
Stressed asset (GNPA + restructured) stood at 8.4% of credit in
Q3FY12 compared to 6.9% in Q2FY12. GNPA increased 3.9% QoQ
to | 3232 crore. Incremental slippages for the quarter were | 699
crore with agriculture slippage at | 336 crore. Post system based
NPA recognition, technical upgradations were strong at | 328 crore.
Fresh restructuring during Q3FY12 was | 2207 crore, primarily on
account of | 900 crore restructuring of Uttar Haryana SEB and | 600
crore restructuring on account of a single telecom infra account. The
bank suffered a sacrifice in NPV on telecom infra account whereas
no such hit was taken for Uttar Haryana SEB restructuring. Total
restructuring provision for the quarter was | 143 crore. Management
has guided that fresh restructuring during Q4FY12E may be ~| 1500
crore, excluding Air India, where it has exposure worth | 1530 crore.
V a l u a t i o n
Exposure to Air India and stressed sectors like power, steel and textile
cause concerns to remain for higher  slippage and restructuring during
Q4FY12E. The bank has capital adequacy ratio of 12.1% with Tier I ratio at
9.5%. Factoring in higher NNPA, revised BV stands at | 345 from | 358,
leading to target price revision to | 310 and BUY rating (0.9xFY13E ABV).

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