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Precious metals retain their luster in
2012
Feature article
We have reviewed our price forecasts along with changes to our macroeconomic
and other commodity price assumptions. In general, precious
metals look to be well supported by investment demand while longer term
demand trends and supply problems are supportive of substantially higher
PGM prices from where we are today. In short our assumptions in the
precious metals space are:
Gold looks a little range bound in the short term, but should be strong into
2012 on the back of a weaker dollar and the additional liquidity provided
by central banks globally. We expect gold to average $2005/oz in 2012,
with long term real forecasts lifted to $950/oz.
Platinum prices should be supported by gold next year and we expect the
platinum gold ratio to widen from parity over the forecast horizon. Long
run prices lifted on a stronger Rand assumption.
Silver prices upgraded substantially from previous expectations, albeit
with a steady rise in the gold/silver ratio.
Palladium upside shifted out into 2H12, with investor selling appearing to
be the key factor restraining price gains from current levels.
Latest News – ETF flows muted, big fall in the Rand
While big shifts in sentiment on debt market malaise and policy intervention is
driving the headlines, it was worth taking stock of what is happening with
demand via ETFs. Gold ETFs are down ~2moz from the peak reached in
early August, and for the year as a whole continue to be much weaker than
previous years. While we did see a pick up in ETF demand heading into the
turmoil in August, in general it seems investment in other forms has been
more important in pricing.
Silver ETF flows remain haphazard, although have increased to levels seen at
the start of August. This is still ~41koz lower than peak levels seen earlier in
the year. Palladium saw a steep fall in ETF holdings at the end of last week,
losing 44koz according to Bloomberg data, although this hasn’t severely
undermined prices. Platinum ETF flows have been broadly flat more recently,
but are up 48koz since the start of August, suggesting investors remain
interested.
The Rand also fallen sharply over the last week by a little over 7%, as the
investors look to further take risk off by reducing exposure to emerging market
currencies. This combined with solid PGM pricing has supported a
meaningful lift in the Rand basket price, although is still only around levels
seen earlier in the year and well below a level that would be seen as
sustainable.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Precious metals retain their luster in
2012
Feature article
We have reviewed our price forecasts along with changes to our macroeconomic
and other commodity price assumptions. In general, precious
metals look to be well supported by investment demand while longer term
demand trends and supply problems are supportive of substantially higher
PGM prices from where we are today. In short our assumptions in the
precious metals space are:
Gold looks a little range bound in the short term, but should be strong into
2012 on the back of a weaker dollar and the additional liquidity provided
by central banks globally. We expect gold to average $2005/oz in 2012,
with long term real forecasts lifted to $950/oz.
Platinum prices should be supported by gold next year and we expect the
platinum gold ratio to widen from parity over the forecast horizon. Long
run prices lifted on a stronger Rand assumption.
Silver prices upgraded substantially from previous expectations, albeit
with a steady rise in the gold/silver ratio.
Palladium upside shifted out into 2H12, with investor selling appearing to
be the key factor restraining price gains from current levels.
Latest News – ETF flows muted, big fall in the Rand
While big shifts in sentiment on debt market malaise and policy intervention is
driving the headlines, it was worth taking stock of what is happening with
demand via ETFs. Gold ETFs are down ~2moz from the peak reached in
early August, and for the year as a whole continue to be much weaker than
previous years. While we did see a pick up in ETF demand heading into the
turmoil in August, in general it seems investment in other forms has been
more important in pricing.
Silver ETF flows remain haphazard, although have increased to levels seen at
the start of August. This is still ~41koz lower than peak levels seen earlier in
the year. Palladium saw a steep fall in ETF holdings at the end of last week,
losing 44koz according to Bloomberg data, although this hasn’t severely
undermined prices. Platinum ETF flows have been broadly flat more recently,
but are up 48koz since the start of August, suggesting investors remain
interested.
The Rand also fallen sharply over the last week by a little over 7%, as the
investors look to further take risk off by reducing exposure to emerging market
currencies. This combined with solid PGM pricing has supported a
meaningful lift in the Rand basket price, although is still only around levels
seen earlier in the year and well below a level that would be seen as
sustainable.
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