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Global dominance in certain products, focus on niche, less-commoditised products, a geographically diversified
presence in markets such as Japan and a presence in the US branded segment distinguish Lupin among the
mid-cap players in the generic space.
In FY12, Lupin expects to launch 12 products with at least four in niche therapies, like oral contraceptives in
the USA. Along with a strong presence in the branded space through Suprax and Aerochamber, Antara has
enabled Lupin’s US business to grow at a staggering CAGR of 65% over FY06-10. With the expansion in the
branded portfolio through the anticipated launch of Allernaze we expect the US business to grow at a CAGR
of 20% over FY11-13. We expect the branded business to contribute about 35% of the total US sales over the
next two years.
With the strong core business and aggressive abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) filings (cumulative 132
ANDA filings till date), a differentiated strategy augurs well for Lupin. Niche product launches like generic
Geodon, Fortamet ER, Cipro and OCs would drive upwards performance of the stock.
Potential delays in the US Food and Drug Administration approval for oral contraceptives and its other niche
filings, and ramp-up delays in Antara and AllerNaze (expected launch in FY12) are the key challenges for Lupin.
We expect Lupin to report an earnings CAGR of 19% over FY11-13 with strong margins at the operating level. At
22.1x FY11E and 18.2x FY12E earnings, Lupin offers limited downside from the current levels. We maintain our
Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs520.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Global dominance in certain products, focus on niche, less-commoditised products, a geographically diversified
presence in markets such as Japan and a presence in the US branded segment distinguish Lupin among the
mid-cap players in the generic space.
In FY12, Lupin expects to launch 12 products with at least four in niche therapies, like oral contraceptives in
the USA. Along with a strong presence in the branded space through Suprax and Aerochamber, Antara has
enabled Lupin’s US business to grow at a staggering CAGR of 65% over FY06-10. With the expansion in the
branded portfolio through the anticipated launch of Allernaze we expect the US business to grow at a CAGR
of 20% over FY11-13. We expect the branded business to contribute about 35% of the total US sales over the
next two years.
With the strong core business and aggressive abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) filings (cumulative 132
ANDA filings till date), a differentiated strategy augurs well for Lupin. Niche product launches like generic
Geodon, Fortamet ER, Cipro and OCs would drive upwards performance of the stock.
Potential delays in the US Food and Drug Administration approval for oral contraceptives and its other niche
filings, and ramp-up delays in Antara and AllerNaze (expected launch in FY12) are the key challenges for Lupin.
We expect Lupin to report an earnings CAGR of 19% over FY11-13 with strong margins at the operating level. At
22.1x FY11E and 18.2x FY12E earnings, Lupin offers limited downside from the current levels. We maintain our
Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs520.
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