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01 March 2011

MphasiS Ltd -Q1FY11 Earnings Update; target Rs512 (Keynote Capitals)

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Q1-FY11 earnings update on MphasiS Ltd.

MphasiS Ltd. (MphasiS) has disappointed the market with inconsistent financial disclosures. Apparently, financial transition had a significant negative impact, with sudden irreconcilable changes in reporting, affecting the granularity of forward estimates. Accordingly, the forecasts mentioned in this update may be subjected to pre-quarter revisions.

Key highlights of Q1FY11 business performance
Ø Growth determinants:
       §     Seasonal impact on business due to holidays, taking out ~3.5% q-o-q.
       §     Demand side shocks, milestone achievement,  removing ~3.0% from topline q-o-q
       §     HP price revisions knocking out ~1.0% from topline q-o-q (effective from
1
st Dec 2010).
       §     Currency movements amounting to -0.7% topline q-o-q
Ø    Client additions look muted with significant change in the HP-channel makeup, possibly on account of price-cuts, translating to ~9.8% revenue decline q-o-q. Significant acquisitions include:
       §     2 ITO UID projects
       §     Payment solutions venture, contributing 2 wins.
Ø    Hiring schedule (equivalents; q-o-q):
       §     Applications:
             •     Onsite: +5.1%
             •     Offshore: +4.4%
       §     BPO (non-HP internal):  +6.4%
       §     ITO:  -0.2%
       §     Attrition at uncomfortably high levels; Applications: 29%, ITO: 25%
Ø    DSO's have spiked by +13.3% q-o-q.
Ø    Overall we consider the Q1FY11 business performance to be transition-robust.
Outlook
Business outlook looks robust with 1252, 471 open positions in Applications and ITO service-lines resp.  We reiterate our confidence in governance @ MphasiS and, expect the company to step up SG&A spend post the recent ‘HP-price cut’ episode.
Though our earlier target was achieved, we restate valuations at 13.0x FY12E earnings, arriving at Rs512 per share.

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