Pharma: Key drivers in 2011- ENAM: India Strategy

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Pharma: Key drivers in 2011
􀂙 Generics – The outlook for generics is bright, as over ~USD 160 bn worth of drugs (~20% of the
patented pharma market) are slated to go off-patent over the next five years. We also expect Big
Pharma to focus on generics and Emerging Markets (EM) to mitigate the impact of patent expiries.
With companies intensifying their focus on domestic growth, we expect generics to register 33%
CAGR in earnings over the next two years (FY10-FY12E)
􀂙 CRAMs – We expect the recovery process for CRAMS companies to be delayed, given the weak Q2
numbers and downward revisions of guidance. However, global CRAMS players continue to close
facilities in developed markets, transferring more work to India/ China-based facilities. Thus,
participants seem to be reposing their belief in the viability of an emerging market based CRAMS
model, which augurs well for Indian CRAMS players in the long run. We expect CRAMS cos to record
20% CAGR in earnings over the next two years