09 January 2015
Investor Categorywise Turnover - 09 Jan 15
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Markets closed near the days high on volatile session :: HDFC Securities
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HDFC Sec
Tax query for Seniors and young ones! :: Business Line
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tax
Reliance Industries: Inexpensive valuations versus telecom overhang :: Kotak Securities
Please Share:: 
Inexpensive valuations versus telecom overhang. We cut our FY2015-17 EPS
estimates for RIL by 4-7% to factor in lower oil prices and modestly lower downstream
margins. We retain our ADD rating on the stock with a revised SOTP-based TP of
`1,000 (`1,100 earlier) noting (1) robust earnings growth from core business projects
and (2) inexpensive valuations. Higher-than-expected value erosion from the telecom
foray is a key risk to our positive view on the stock.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
Inexpensive valuations versus telecom overhang. We cut our FY2015-17 EPS
estimates for RIL by 4-7% to factor in lower oil prices and modestly lower downstream
margins. We retain our ADD rating on the stock with a revised SOTP-based TP of
`1,000 (`1,100 earlier) noting (1) robust earnings growth from core business projects
and (2) inexpensive valuations. Higher-than-expected value erosion from the telecom
foray is a key risk to our positive view on the stock.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
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Reliance Industries
Cement: 3QFY15 preview - the winter chill :: Kotak Securities
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3QFY15 preview –- the winter chill. A sequential decline of `7-10/bag in cement
prices will put the brakes on earnings momentum of cement companies that will see
little improvement in EBITDA/ton, compared to 2QFY15, as the advantage of a higher
volume base (post monsoon) would be lost to lower realizations. We expect sustained
volume trajectory (7% yoy) aided mainly by Ultratech, which continues to enjoy doubledigit
volume growth, helped by an expanded capacity base.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
3QFY15 preview –- the winter chill. A sequential decline of `7-10/bag in cement
prices will put the brakes on earnings momentum of cement companies that will see
little improvement in EBITDA/ton, compared to 2QFY15, as the advantage of a higher
volume base (post monsoon) would be lost to lower realizations. We expect sustained
volume trajectory (7% yoy) aided mainly by Ultratech, which continues to enjoy doubledigit
volume growth, helped by an expanded capacity base.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
Real Estate: Housing for all by 2022 - big opportunity in small housing :: Kotak Securities
Please Share:: 
Housing for all by 2022—big opportunity in small housing. The Indian government
aims to provide 100 mn new units of primarily affordable housing by 2022 at a cost of
`108 tn. The government would be constrained to reach this goal on its own and
would need to incentivize private players. Private developers, hitherto riding high-end
demand, would have to change their business models to focus on volume rather than
pricing. The spurt in demand from middle- and low-income groups is likely to benefit
housing finance companies significantly
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
Housing for all by 2022—big opportunity in small housing. The Indian government
aims to provide 100 mn new units of primarily affordable housing by 2022 at a cost of
`108 tn. The government would be constrained to reach this goal on its own and
would need to incentivize private players. Private developers, hitherto riding high-end
demand, would have to change their business models to focus on volume rather than
pricing. The spurt in demand from middle- and low-income groups is likely to benefit
housing finance companies significantly
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
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real estate
Dewan Housing Finance: More from less :: Kotak Securities
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More from less. Our forecast of 22% loan-book CAGR in FY2014-17E for DHFL puts
the book at `814 bn by FY2017E. Our estimates are propelled by improving execution
and significant untapped mortgage demand. DHFL’s stable business model and 17%
medium-term RoE with negligible NPL risk make it an attractive long-term bid. We
expect a rerating on the back of the management’s efforts to address investor
concerns. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating and a target price of `540.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
More from less. Our forecast of 22% loan-book CAGR in FY2014-17E for DHFL puts
the book at `814 bn by FY2017E. Our estimates are propelled by improving execution
and significant untapped mortgage demand. DHFL’s stable business model and 17%
medium-term RoE with negligible NPL risk make it an attractive long-term bid. We
expect a rerating on the back of the management’s efforts to address investor
concerns. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating and a target price of `540.
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Dewan Housing,
Kotak Sec
GPPL 1-9-2015 Recommendation BUY ( + ) Target Price Rs. 260 :: Kotak Securities
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Gujarat Pipavav,
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Telecom: Four years of 3G: taking stock of revenue market share movements :: Kotak Securities
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Four years of 3G: taking stock of revenue market share movements. Four years
into the commercial launch of 3G in India, it is safe to say that its impact on competitive
positioning has been strictly operator-specific: Idea and Vodafone are the only operators
to have gained significant revenue market share in their 3G circles while BSNL and
RCOM have failed to leverage 3G (similar to how these two failed to leverage 900 MHz
spectrum in the past). Bottom-line: spectrum holdings (alone) don’t win market share;
solid execution and right go-to-market strategies do.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
Four years of 3G: taking stock of revenue market share movements. Four years
into the commercial launch of 3G in India, it is safe to say that its impact on competitive
positioning has been strictly operator-specific: Idea and Vodafone are the only operators
to have gained significant revenue market share in their 3G circles while BSNL and
RCOM have failed to leverage 3G (similar to how these two failed to leverage 900 MHz
spectrum in the past). Bottom-line: spectrum holdings (alone) don’t win market share;
solid execution and right go-to-market strategies do.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
Metals & Mining: 3QFY15E preview: weak for steel :: Kotak Securities
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3QFY15E preview: weak for steel. Domestic steel companies will report a 3-27% qoq
decline in EBITDA due to a 3-4% decline in steel prices, high iron ore costs due to mine
shutdowns and muted sales; Tata Steel will be impacted most. Non-ferrous names will
benefit from higher volumes from aluminum capacity ramp-ups and increased zinc
mined metal production. Sesa Sterlite will still report a sequential EBITDA decline due to
Cairn. We maintain our cautious outlook on the sector and prefer companies with low
raw material benefit/regulatory risks. We prefer Sesa Sterlite and JSW Steel.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
3QFY15E preview: weak for steel. Domestic steel companies will report a 3-27% qoq
decline in EBITDA due to a 3-4% decline in steel prices, high iron ore costs due to mine
shutdowns and muted sales; Tata Steel will be impacted most. Non-ferrous names will
benefit from higher volumes from aluminum capacity ramp-ups and increased zinc
mined metal production. Sesa Sterlite will still report a sequential EBITDA decline due to
Cairn. We maintain our cautious outlook on the sector and prefer companies with low
raw material benefit/regulatory risks. We prefer Sesa Sterlite and JSW Steel.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
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Kotak Sec,
Metals and Mining
Energy: Good time for reforms, not so much for stocks :: Kotak Securities
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Good time for reforms, not so much for stocks. We revise our estimates for PSU
energy companies while factoring in lower crude prices. We prefer BPCL (upgrade to
BUY) among the PSU energy stocks, as we see the current pessimism on its E&P
business as an opportunity to buy. Lower crude price environment can act as a blessing
in disguise, only if the government is willing to undertake bolder reforms to (1) curb
fuel subsidies substantially and (2) formulate a sustainable subsidy-sharing framework.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
Good time for reforms, not so much for stocks. We revise our estimates for PSU
energy companies while factoring in lower crude prices. We prefer BPCL (upgrade to
BUY) among the PSU energy stocks, as we see the current pessimism on its E&P
business as an opportunity to buy. Lower crude price environment can act as a blessing
in disguise, only if the government is willing to undertake bolder reforms to (1) curb
fuel subsidies substantially and (2) formulate a sustainable subsidy-sharing framework.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
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oil and gas
Sobha Developers: Operations update: a wake-up call :: Kotak Securities
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Operations update: a wake-up call. Sobha’s 3QFY15 sales of 0.66 mn sq. ft, the
lowest since 4QFY11. We believe the low sales were due to high product prices—85%
of the products were priced above `10 mn/unit. Debt may rise marginally versus our
assumptions of a drop during the quarter. A timely launch of Aspirational Homes in
4Q15 may boost volumes in Bangalore, but still will fall short of Sobha’s FY2015
guidance. We maintain our ADD rating and March 2016E target of `540.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
Operations update: a wake-up call. Sobha’s 3QFY15 sales of 0.66 mn sq. ft, the
lowest since 4QFY11. We believe the low sales were due to high product prices—85%
of the products were priced above `10 mn/unit. Debt may rise marginally versus our
assumptions of a drop during the quarter. A timely launch of Aspirational Homes in
4Q15 may boost volumes in Bangalore, but still will fall short of Sobha’s FY2015
guidance. We maintain our ADD rating and March 2016E target of `540.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
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Sobha Developers
Banks/Financial Institutions: A silent revival in business :: Kotak Securities
Please Share:: 
A silent revival in business. With slow growth in the corporate-loan portfolio, banks
have shifted focus to retail, in which growth and risk-reward opportunities are more
favorable in the current leg of the cycle. Retail lending has gone through a change and
private banks and SBI are probably well placed to build a strong portfolio over the next
few years. Banks that have been focusing on housing are likely to shift to other lending
products, like credit cards, quite early in the cycle.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
A silent revival in business. With slow growth in the corporate-loan portfolio, banks
have shifted focus to retail, in which growth and risk-reward opportunities are more
favorable in the current leg of the cycle. Retail lending has gone through a change and
private banks and SBI are probably well placed to build a strong portfolio over the next
few years. Banks that have been focusing on housing are likely to shift to other lending
products, like credit cards, quite early in the cycle.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
Strategy: Economic interests and land rights :: Kotak Securities
Please Share:: 
Economic interests and land rights. The recent ordinance to amend the central land
acquisition law excludes (1) the requirement of a social impact study for land acquisition
by any government or government entity and (2) a special provision that barred
acquisition of irrigated, multi-cropped land (except in certain cases), for certain types of
projects. However, other key provisions have been left unchanged. The new law
possibly makes the timeline to acquire land shorter, thereby making the process efficient.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
Economic interests and land rights. The recent ordinance to amend the central land
acquisition law excludes (1) the requirement of a social impact study for land acquisition
by any government or government entity and (2) a special provision that barred
acquisition of irrigated, multi-cropped land (except in certain cases), for certain types of
projects. However, other key provisions have been left unchanged. The new law
possibly makes the timeline to acquire land shorter, thereby making the process efficient.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
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Kotak Sec
Energy: Energy: Normal economics at play now Kotak Sec,
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oil and gas
Strategy: Smart beta - divergence between growth and value to narrow in 2015 ::Kotak Sec,
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Kotak Sec
Telecom Subscriber growth rate remains steady… :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report
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ICICI Securities,
telecom
Retail Revenue growth to remain moderate… :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report
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ICICI Securities,
Retail
Real Estate “Housing for all” –one of the top agendas of government… :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report
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ICICI Securities,
real estate
Other Sundry Industries/Companies :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report
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ICICI Securities
Power Capacity addition below target :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report
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ICICI Securities,
utilities
Oil and gas Brent crude prices decline sharply in Q3FY15 :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report
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ICICI Securities,
oil and gas
Media Broadcaster advertisement revenue to grow at a slower pace… :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report
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Media
Logistics Buoyant container volume at major ports continues :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report
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Logistics
Healthcare High base, lack of new product approvals to hamper growth :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report
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Pharma
FMCG Steady volume revival; largely price driven growth :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report
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FMCG,
ICICI Securities
Construction & Infrastructure Reforms spree to boost tormented sector… :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report
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construction,
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Infrastructure
Cement All India cement production growth to moderate during the quarter :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report
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Capital Goods - Ordering environment picking up gradually, especially in Power :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report
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capital goods,
ICICI Securities
Auto and auto ancillary :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report
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Auto,
ICICI Securities
Apparel :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report
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ICICI Securities
Q3FY15E: Cyclicals to perform better than defensives… :: ICICI Securities, report
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ICICI Securities
Monthly Corporate Action Tracker :: ICICI Securities, report
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ICICI Securities
Customising bearing needs… NRB Bearings :: ICICI Securities, report
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NRB Bearings
Building Products - Q3FY15E Results Preview :: IndiaNivesh
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construction,
IndiaNivesh
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