Anti-infective to lead domestic market
We expect the domestic pharma market to grow at 12-14% in FY15
compared to 6.2% in FY14. We expect anti-infective to lead the
domestic pharma market with ~17%MS. We expect lifestyle segments –
CVS, CNS, anti-diabetic and gastro intestinal – to drive future
growth. The domestic market is characterized by brands with top 100
brands commanding ~15%MS. MNC pharma companies have been able to
create and nurture brands in the domestic market. Notable among them
are Glaxo SmithKline Pharma (GSK), Sanofi India, Abbott India, Pfizer
and Wyeth.
$ Anti-infective to lead domestic market: As per AIOCD AWACS
MAT-Feb’14 data, the domestic pharma market was placed at Rs751.5bn
and grew at 5.9%. Anti-infective emerged as the top segment with ~17%
MS in the domestic market. Anti-cancer was the fastest growing segment
which grew at 24.9%. Some other fast growing segments were respiratory
9.3%, anti-diabetic at 14.6% and dermatology 10.6%. The top five
therapeutic segments contributed ~57% to total domestic revenues.
$ Top 100 brands generated ~15% revenues: As per our analysis of the
domestic pharma market data, top 100 brands generated ~15% of revenues
in the Rs751.5bn domestic pharma market. Anti-infective and
anti-diabetes segments had 16 brands each in the top 100 brands
followed by gastro intestinal with 14 brands. On an average, vitamin
segment generated the highest revenues of Rs1.58bn per brand followed
by anti-infective with Rs1.31bn of revenues.
$ MNC pharma - pioneers in brand building: Our analysis reveals that
10 MNC pharma companies had 42 brands in the list of top 100 brands.
Glaxo SmithKline Pharma had nine brands followed by Abbott India and
Sanofi India with seven brands each. This indicates that MNC pharma
companies have been highly successful in brand building and nurturing
in the domestic pharma market. Human Mixtard of Novo Nordisk is the
largest selling product in the domestic market with revenues of
Rs3.49bn per annum.
$ Positive outlook for the pharma sector: We continue our positive
outlook for the pharma sector due to expected improvement in
performance in FY15. Our top picks for the pharma sector includes
Lupin, Aurobindo Pharma (APL) and Pfizer. Lupin’s strong presence in
the US and Japanese markets will generate good revenue growth. APL is
likely to report strong growth in the US and European markets due to
the acquisition of Actavis generic business. Pfizer is likely to
benefit from the merger with Wyeth and field force rationalization.
These companies are expected to give over 30% returns over CMP in one
year.
We expect the domestic pharma market to grow at 12-14% in FY15
compared to 6.2% in FY14. We expect anti-infective to lead the
domestic pharma market with ~17%MS. We expect lifestyle segments –
CVS, CNS, anti-diabetic and gastro intestinal – to drive future
growth. The domestic market is characterized by brands with top 100
brands commanding ~15%MS. MNC pharma companies have been able to
create and nurture brands in the domestic market. Notable among them
are Glaxo SmithKline Pharma (GSK), Sanofi India, Abbott India, Pfizer
and Wyeth.
$ Anti-infective to lead domestic market: As per AIOCD AWACS
MAT-Feb’14 data, the domestic pharma market was placed at Rs751.5bn
and grew at 5.9%. Anti-infective emerged as the top segment with ~17%
MS in the domestic market. Anti-cancer was the fastest growing segment
which grew at 24.9%. Some other fast growing segments were respiratory
9.3%, anti-diabetic at 14.6% and dermatology 10.6%. The top five
therapeutic segments contributed ~57% to total domestic revenues.
$ Top 100 brands generated ~15% revenues: As per our analysis of the
domestic pharma market data, top 100 brands generated ~15% of revenues
in the Rs751.5bn domestic pharma market. Anti-infective and
anti-diabetes segments had 16 brands each in the top 100 brands
followed by gastro intestinal with 14 brands. On an average, vitamin
segment generated the highest revenues of Rs1.58bn per brand followed
by anti-infective with Rs1.31bn of revenues.
$ MNC pharma - pioneers in brand building: Our analysis reveals that
10 MNC pharma companies had 42 brands in the list of top 100 brands.
Glaxo SmithKline Pharma had nine brands followed by Abbott India and
Sanofi India with seven brands each. This indicates that MNC pharma
companies have been highly successful in brand building and nurturing
in the domestic pharma market. Human Mixtard of Novo Nordisk is the
largest selling product in the domestic market with revenues of
Rs3.49bn per annum.
$ Positive outlook for the pharma sector: We continue our positive
outlook for the pharma sector due to expected improvement in
performance in FY15. Our top picks for the pharma sector includes
Lupin, Aurobindo Pharma (APL) and Pfizer. Lupin’s strong presence in
the US and Japanese markets will generate good revenue growth. APL is
likely to report strong growth in the US and European markets due to
the acquisition of Actavis generic business. Pfizer is likely to
benefit from the merger with Wyeth and field force rationalization.
These companies are expected to give over 30% returns over CMP in one
year.
