13 January 2014

IRB :: Centrum Technical Recommendations

IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LEVEL : 100
TARGET 1 : 125
TARGET 2 : 178
VIEW CHANGES BELOW : 85
TIMEFRAME : 3/15 months
IRB is trading in a downtrend at the current juncture with stiff resistance or supply region at 95-100. A breach of this
resistance will improve the overall structure as it will indicate a move above its downward sloping trendline and also above
its 55 week moving average both of which are near 100. While the overall oscillator setup and moving average setup is
indicating that an immediate breach of the resistance range may be difficult, once achieved chances of an intermediate and
long term revival will increase and a move towards 125 for intermediate term and 178 for the long term, is likely to open up

HSBC Research, Looking at mid-cap themes for 2014

 Mid-caps have underperformed largecaps in the last 6 years. With no easing
in sight we remain selective on them
 Three themes to play in 2014:
insulation from leverage-related stress;
rising utilisation; and strong earnings
momentum with reasonable valuations
 Analysts’ preferred plays: PTCIN, IPCA,
TRP, PEPL, BHFC, LICHF and ILFT

Kolte Patil (KPDL) Righttime,ride time? Karvy

Righttime,ride time?
Over last 3M Kolte Patil (KPDL) has outperformed CNX Realty index by
15% still the stock trades at 23.4% discount to its average cross‐cycle
multiple. With new approvals of ~7mn sqft standing at horizon we believe
KPDL is looking at FY15‐16E high‐rise. We roll forward our valuation
estimates to FY15E end and incorporate some new projects into our model.
We maintain our BUYstance with increased NAV of Rs160/share.
Fat approvals pipeline lends – visibility to FY15‐16E launches
KPDL has projects encompassing ~1.1mn sqft saleable area in final
Environmental Clearance (EC) approval phase (expected by 4QFY14E).
Besides ~5.1mn sqft of EC approvals are expected by 1QFY15E. KPDL has
been awaiting new approval since past Jul‐13 and these projects are now in
the final EC appraisal leg. With limited on hand inventory of ~1.5mn sqft,
KPDL is awaiting EC clearances for next leg of growth.
New Townships,Mumbaiforay ‐ may add upto Rs79/share optional value
We expect new Township & Mumbai foray to add about Rs79/share optional
upside to our NAV estimate. The Sanjivani Township project with ~15mn
sqft saleable area has been certified as ‘Green building’ and is currently being
evaluated for EC (can add about Rs21/share to SOTP). Increase in FSI in
township may add Rs44/share and Mumbai foray may add Rs15/share to
SOTP.
Strengthening management bandwidth, improving transparency
KPDL has taken multiple initiaives to improve productivity (i) tied up with
IBM to automate operations and improve margins (ii) hired laterals &
freshers from A‐Grade professional schools to increase management
bandwidth & (iii) changed auditors to Deliotte Haskins to improve
transparency. Besides an investor friendly dividend policy is already in
place. This is a part of overall strategy to be a market leaderin Pune and gain
traction in newer markets.
Maintain BUY: NAV increased to Rs160/share
We maintain our BUY stance on KPDL with an increased SOTP‐based target
price of Rs160/share (previous target Rs140/share). Our valuation is based on
0.9x our end‐FY15E NAV forecast. We have marginally cut our headline
numbers to factorin lagged launches. At CMP the KPDL trades at 4.1xFY16E
EPS and offers ~4.8% dividend yield. Key triggers: (i) success of new
launches (ii) faster pace of project approvals (~7mn sqft).

Plastic money just got safer :: Business Line

With entering the PIN compulsory for processing any payment at a merchant outlet, the risk of fraud on your debit card reduces significantly.
Beginning December 2013, the RBI had mandated that when you use your debit card to pay at a merchant outlet, you must punch in your PIN to complete the transaction. This rule adds to the security of your debit card transactions.
Added security when swiping

So far, the RBI has implemented many measures to prevent card frauds online. This included second-level authentication (one-time-password or verified-by-Visa/Mastercard checks) for online transactions.
Also, the introduction of virtual cards did away with the need to enter your actual card details online.
But card transactions swiped at merchant outlets remained vulnerable. All one had to do to complete a payment was to give the debit card, get it swiped and then sign the charge slip. The amount was immediately debited from your bank account.
If the card was stolen or lost, there was a real risk of misuse – even before you could inform your bank and get the card blocked. Since a debit card is directly linked to your bank account, a lost or stolen card meant the risk of your account being swept clean in quick time.
Then, there was the risk of ‘skimming’. Essentially, conmen extract (skim) cardholders’ personal information such as names, card numbers, card expiry dates, and CVV numbers stored in the magnetic strips of cards.
This is then used to make duplicate cards to indulge in fraudulent transactions. With the PIN entry compulsory for processing any payment at a merchant outlet, the risk of unauthorised use on your debit card even it is stolen, lost or skimmed reduces significantly.
Entering a wrong PIN thrice will result in the payment transaction being cancelled.
Since for a scamster, it now takes two to tango, knowing your debit card details will not take him too far. Unless, of course, the person who lays his hand on your card or duplicates it also knows your PIN.
Safety precautions

Along with the debit card, keep the PIN secure and confidential. Memorise your PIN – don’t write it down on a piece of paper and carry it along.
Punch in the number yourself into the point-of-sale instrument – ask for the instrument to be brought to you (portable instruments are getting in vogue).
If this is not possible, take the trouble of walking the distance to where the instrument is located.
Do not hand over your debit card and reveal the PIN to the person collecting the payment .
Also, when punching in the number at merchant outlets, be discreet. Keep changing your PIN regularly – this will throw would-be card pinchers off the scent.
Remember that, except when you are making a payment through computerised interactive voice response systems, no bank or its official will ask you to reveal your PIN.
So, don’t fall for fraudulent e-mails or phone calls which solicit such confidential information.
Punching in the PIN is not yet compulsory for credit card transactions at merchant outlets. This is, perhaps, because the use of credit cards is restricted to pre-set limits, unlike debit cards where you can spend as much as you have in the bank account.
That said, PIN entry for credit card payments too will only add to transaction security, and this may also be mandated in the future.
Chip cards for global transactions
With many cases of card fraud and misuse originating from international transactions, the RBI has tightened the screws on this front too.
From December, chip-based debit and credit cards will be required for international transactions – online, at ATMs, or at merchant outlets.
These cards are embedded with EMV (Europay, Mastercard, Visa) chips which encrypt user data and make card skimming much more difficult. So, chip-based cards which are dipped rather than swiped at merchant outlets score over the magnetic strip-based cards mostly in use now.
For those who have used their magnetic strip-based cards even once earlier for international transactions, banks will replace it an EMV chip-based card.
And those who haven’t yet used their cards for international transactions but intend to – apply to your bank for a chip-based card.
Until you get your chip-based card, you will be still able to use your magnetic strip card for international transactions but only for a restricted amount decided by your bank – say $500.
If you need to spend more internationally, you will have to request your bank to enhance the limit.

IL&FS Transportation Networks: Buy :: Business Line


HSBC Dynamic: Sell :: Business Line


Prestige Estates Projects :Operations strong; pick-up in deliveries/rentals key: Religare Research

Operations strong; pick-up in deliveries/rentals key
PEPL posted steady sales in Q3FY14 (1.5msf/Rs 9.4bn) aided by the big
launch (Lakeside Habitat) in Bengaluru. This along with collections/leases of
Rs 5.9bn/~0.7msf mean that the company remains comfortably placed
vis-à-vis its full-year guidance. We however expect launches to moderate as
the focus shifts to inventory liquidation and execution. Thus, a pick-up in
deliveries and an improvement in the rental portfolio should be the key
performance indicators for PEPL from here on. Maintain BUY.
 New sales remain buoyant: PEPL reported pre-sales of 1.55msf/Rs 9.4bn helped by
the launch of Lakeside Habitatin Bengaluru. As of Dec’13, PEPL has achieved 82% of
its annual sales target. Management suggests a moderation in new launches for a few
quarters, which should mean a corresponding moderation in volumes.
 Collections remain steady: Customer advances came in at Rs 5.9bn, thus meeting
79% of its annual collection target of Rs 23bn. Management indicated that the QoQ
decline in customer advances was normal, and the number should pick up again in
Q4FY14. We also expect customer advances to improve through FY15 as new sales
start contributing.
 P/L numbers to remain flat: While construction activity across projectsremains on
track, the P/L numbers may not improve significantly in the absence of big projects
hitting the revenue-recognition threshold. We estimate Q3FY14 revenue/PAT at
Rs 4.7bn/Rs 0.8bn (-2%/+1% QoQ), and as per management, these numbers should
improve in Q4 led by the first-time revenue recognition fromsome projects.
 Maintain BUY: PEPL has improved itsscale of business, which is reflected in its
sales/launches. We however expect launches to moderate for the next few quarters
and hence see limited near-term volume growth potential. Thus, a pick-up in
deliveries/an improvement in the rental portfolio remain key growth triggers. BUY.

Check out cheque rules :: Business Line

Information about precautions to be taken while writing out cheques when investing in mutual funds and the changes in rules pertaining to these instruments need to be well understood to ensure a smooth investment process.
Payout bank details
While investing in mutual funds, bank details for receiving payout (dividend and redemption) must be provided in the application form. The cheque submitted along with the application may be from the same account mentioned in the application form for receiving payouts.
In case the fresh subscription cheque is not from the account mentioned in the application form, investors would have to provide valid documentary proof for the payout bank details, i.e. the bank account mentioned in the application form. This can be an original cancelled cheque having the first holder’s name printed therein.
Changes/correction
Any kind of changes or correction on cheques is not permitted without a counter signature. If there is any change in the payee’s name, amount in figures or amount in words, investors will have to write a fresh cheque.
When applying for mutual fund units, care should be taken while filling out the cheque. The cheque amount in words and figures should tally and match with the amount in the application form. The investment amount should be at least for the minimum amount mentioned in the scheme documents.
The name of the fund and the scheme should be correctly mentioned on the cheque. Care should also be taken to ensure that the scheme option mentioned in the cheque and the application form are the same.
In line with the RBI notification, validity of all cheques, drafts, pay orders and banker’s cheques is three months from the date of issue of the instrument. Investors must ensure that all dividend or redemption payments received through cheques are presented to their banks within this timeframe.
Third party cheques
According to AMFI guidelines, mutual fund investments made through third party cheques will not be processed. A cheque issued by and signed by any person other than the first holder of the investment is a third party cheque.
When a payment is made from a bank account that is not held by the beneficiary investor, that is, the First Holder or the Sole Holder, it is referred to as a ‘Third Party Payment’. If the cheque is issued from a joint account, the first named applicant/investor must be one of the joint holders of the bank account from which the instrument is issued.
There are exceptions to this rule as spelt out below:
Parents: Payment may be made by parents/grandparents/related persons on behalf of a minor for a value not exceeding Rs 50,000 (each regular purchase or per SIP instalment)
Employers: Payment may be made by employers on behalf of employees under the Systematic Investment Plans through payroll deductions.
Custodians: Payments made by custodians on behalf of FIIs or clients.
Such applications should be accompanied by the third party declaration form mentioning the relationship with the First Holder. The form is available at mutual fund Web sites.
Payments made by pre-funded instruments, such as a pay order or banker’s cheque will be accepted if the instrument is accompanied with a certificate from the issuing banker stating the account holder’s name and the account number which has been debited for issue of the instrument.
The account holder’s name mentioned in the certificate should be that of the first holder.
Alternately, investors may submit a copy of the bank statement evidencing the debit for the issuance of the instrument or a copy of the acknowledgement from the bank wherein the instructions to debit the bank account are available.
These should contain the bank account details and the name of the investor. The account number mentioned in these supporting documents should be the same as one of the registered bank accounts in the folio or mentioned in the application form.

Century Textiles :: Centrum Technical Recommendations

IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LEVEL : 320
TARGET : 395/530
VIEW CHANGES BELOW : 259
TIMEFRAME : 4-6 months / 15 months
Centuryt textiles is trading in an uptrend but is now fast approaching a stiff resistance at 320 which was the previous
breakdown level for the scrip. Once the level is toppled, a move towards 395 is likely to open up in the next few months
therafter. With a 15 month perspective, once the trading breakout is confirmed, a move towards 530-550 range is likely to
open up as this level was also the intermediate top of the scrip. At the current juncture important support is at 260 levels
which makes the risk to reward slightly stretched.

Coal India, :: Centrum Technical Recommendations

IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LEVEL : 300
TARGET : 350/410
VIEW CHANGES BELOW : 265
TIMEFRAME : 4/12 months
Since its IPO, Coal has been trading in a sideways to negative trend and had also broken below its important support at
300 a few months ago. With an intermediate term trading perspective, the scrip is likely to turn bullish if a closing above
300 is secured which will indicate a trading target of 350 for the scrip. On the long term too the breach is likely to lead to a
move till 410 in the coming 9-12 months, the level being the previous life highs.

Consider short strangle on YES Bank: :: Business Line


ICICI Bank :: Centrum Technical Recommendations

IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LEVEL : 1250
TARGET : 1250/1900
VIEW CHANGES BELOW : 899
TIMEFRAME : 3 months (trading) ; 15 months (positional)
While ICICI bank has moved lower once again after moving close to 1200-1250 resistance range recently, its overall long
term structure remains bullish with the scrip having tested its long term support line a few months ago. The scrip though
remains one of the stronger banking stocks and shows a strong consoldation since the past many months. A clear
breakout though will be confirmed once the banking giant moves beyond 1250 when a target of 1900-2000 will come into
picture in the long term. 1000-950 is a strong support range for the scrip and the scrip can be accumulated in this range

NMDC :: Centrum Technical Recommendations

IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LEVEL : 150
TARGET : 195/280
VIEW CHANGES BELOW : 125 (once breakout above 150 confirmed)
TIMEFRAME : 3/12 months
NMDC is trading close to an important resistance at 150 which is based on a downward sloping channel within which the
scrip is trading in. Once a breach is secured, an immediate move towards 200 is likely while the breakout will also have
long term implications as in the next 1 year, a swift move towards 280-300 range may be coming by. A breakout though
should be on weekly closing basis only.