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28 September 2014

Aurobindo Pharma and Cipla :: IndiaNivesh PDF link

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Aurobindo Pharma and Cipla
Newsflash: MPP announced six new sub-licences with Aurobindo Pharma, Cipla,
Desano, Emcure, Hetero Labs and Laurus Labs to allow generic manufacturing of
TAF for 112 developing countries. The generic companies will begin development
plans for new HIV product simultaneous with USFDA’s review to expedite access to
low and middle-income countries once the medicine is approved. In studies, TAF
has demonstrated comparable antiviral efficacy to that of 300 milligram tenofovir
disoproxil fumarate (TDF) – a World Health Organization-preferred HIV therapy –
but at a dose that is 10 times lower. The smaller milligram dose may also allow
lower production costs, as well as greater ease in developing new fixed-dose
combinations and single tablet regimens.
Our view: TAF, once approved, would be one more product under tender business
for HIV drugs. Participation of Aurobindo Pharma and Cipla in this drug would depend
on the profitability from this drug, given the past history of both the companies of
prioritising profitability over revenues. The potential consumption of this product
remains promising given the small amount of dosage required. Gilead, the innovator,
has just released the positive results on two of its TAF Phase III studies. Post results
and development by generic players, we expect meaningful revenue and profitability
to accrue 12-18 months from now.
The global sales of branded TDF – Viread has been US$958mn for CY13, as per
annual report of Gilead.
Impact on Stock:
Since the product is in development stage, we expect it to have no financial impact
as of now, however, it would be sentiment positive on Aurobindo Pharma and Cipla.


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