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,
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03 October 2013
IIFCL Tax Free Bonds Collection Figures at 5.00 p.m. as on today
| IIFCL Tranche-1 TAX FREE BONDS - SUBSCRIPTION FIGURES | ||||||||
| WITHOUT GREENSHOE OPTION | WITH GREENSHOE OPTION | |||||||
| Category | Bonds Available | Response | Received | Over | Bonds Available | Response | Received | Over |
| For Allocation | Recd | Rs In Crs | Subscription | For Allocation | Recd | Rs In Crs | Subscription | |
| Category 1 (QIBs) |
750000
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3750000
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
| Category 2 (NIIs) |
1000000
|
326500
|
32.65
|
0.3265
|
5000000
|
326500
|
32.65
|
0.0653
|
| Category 3 (HNIs) |
1250000
|
1442170
|
144.22
|
1.15
|
6250000
|
1442170
|
144.22
|
0.23
|
| Category 4 (RIIs) |
2000000
|
311750
|
31.18
|
0.16
|
10000000
|
311750
|
31.18
|
0.03
|
| Total |
5000000
|
2080420
|
208.042
|
0.42
|
25000000
|
2080420
|
208.04
|
0.08
|
Kind Regards,
HUDCO Tax Free Bonds Collection Figures at 5.00 p.m. as on today
| HUDCO TAX FREE BONDS - SUBSCRIPTION FIGURES | ||||||||
| WITHOUT GREENSHOE OPTION | WITH GREENSHOE OPTION | |||||||
| Category | Bonds Available | Response | Received | Over | Bonds Available | Response | Received | Over |
| For Allocation | Recd | Rs In Crs | Subscription | For Allocation | Recd | Rs In Crs | Subscription | |
| Category 1 (QIBs) |
750000
|
1255000
|
125.50
|
1.67
|
4809200
|
1255000
|
125.5
|
0.26
|
| Category 2 (NIIs) |
1500000
|
2725874
|
272.59
|
1.82
|
9618400
|
2725874
|
272.59
|
0.28
|
| Category 3 (HNIs) |
2250000
|
5050067
|
505.01
|
2.24
|
14427600
|
5050067
|
505.01
|
0.35
|
| Category 4 (RIIs/NRIs) |
3000000
|
10399942
|
1039.99
|
3.47
|
19236800
|
10399942
|
1039.99
|
0.54
|
7500000
|
19430883
|
1943.09
|
2.59
|
48092000
|
19430883
|
1943.09
|
0.40
| |
HUDCO Tax Free Bonds Collection Figures at 5.00 p.m. as on today
| HUDCO TAX FREE BONDS - SUBSCRIPTION FIGURES | ||||||||
| WITHOUT GREENSHOE OPTION | WITH GREENSHOE OPTION | |||||||
| Category | Bonds Available | Response | Received | Over | Bonds Available | Response | Received | Over |
| For Allocation | Recd | Rs In Crs | Subscription | For Allocation | Recd | Rs In Crs | Subscription | |
| Category 1 (QIBs) |
750000
|
1255000
|
125.50
|
1.67
|
4809200
|
1255000
|
125.5
|
0.26
|
| Category 2 (NIIs) |
1500000
|
2725874
|
272.59
|
1.82
|
9618400
|
2725874
|
272.59
|
0.28
|
| Category 3 (HNIs) |
2250000
|
5050067
|
505.01
|
2.24
|
14427600
|
5050067
|
505.01
|
0.35
|
| Category 4 (RIIs/NRIs) |
3000000
|
10399942
|
1039.99
|
3.47
|
19236800
|
10399942
|
1039.99
|
0.54
|
7500000
|
19430883
|
1943.09
|
2.59
|
48092000
|
19430883
|
1943.09
|
0.40
| |
Another 0.50 pc repo hikes in the offing: Analysts
Having been surprised by the repo rate increase on inflation concern, analysts expect new Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan to hike the key rate by another 0.50 percentage points this fiscal. The repo rate hike "indicates that the new Governor is focusing more on inflation than growth. We now expect RBI to increase repo rate by 0.25 per cent each at the next two policy meetings to 8 per cent by end of 2013," house economists at British lender Standard Chartered said. Stating that the Reserve Bank has shifted to an "inflation targeting framework" without explicitly saying so, Japanese brokerage Nomura said it expects a 0.50 per cent hike in repo rate this fiscal. "We are changing our policy call because of this sudden regime shift. Our baseline view has been a continuation of the status quo on policy rates in FY14, followed by a 0.75 per cent repo rate cuts in FY15. We now expect repo rates to be hiked by 50 bps to 8 per cent in FY14, followed by a prolonged pause," it said. Without quantifying the expected hikes, the Credit Suisse economist also said they expect one or two more repo rate increases from in the next few months. Rajan, a celebrated monetary economist from the Chicago Business School, spooked the markets at his maiden policy announcement by increasing the repo rate by 0.25 per cent citing increased worries on inflation. Reacting to the move, Pratip Chaudhuri, the chairman of the country's largest lender State Bank of India, said he would be forced to increase the lending rates, much to the dismay of the borrowers. The support for growth came from the decision to cut the marginal standing facility by 0.75 per cent to 9.5 per cent, which according to the ratings agency Crisil will help bring down cost of funds for banks by 0.4 per cent, if we go by past references on their borrowings. The Standard Chartered economists clarified that even the two actions on the repo and MSF look contradictory, their aims are not different. The MSF hike in July was to arrest the steep fall in the rupee and we should expect more cuts as the currency stabilises while the repo is aimed solely at inflation numbers, which grew to 6.1 per cent at the wholesale level and the consumer inflation continued to remain over 9 per cent. Nomura said that the new framework being charted out by Governor Rajan lays a greater focus on the retail price rise. "We see the RBI action as a medium-term positive as it should bring down inflation expectations and help correct macroeconomic imbalances," it added.
Heading for double-digit agricultural output growth? :: Credit Suisse
● Amid the intense gloom surrounding India’s economic growth
prospects, we believe many underestimate the impact of two
potentially positive factors. One is the powerful turnaround in net
exports in July and August, which we expect to continue. The
other is the focus of this note and relates to the agricultural sector.
● Over the past 50 years, India has had nine “droughts” which have
not been followed by a subsequent year of significantly deficient
rainfall, the last of which was in 2012. The key point is that on
each of the last eight occasions, real agricultural output surged,
with an average rise of 11.3% and a range of 7.2-15.6%.
● This suggests that forecasters are underestimating the likely
bounce in Indian agricultural production in 2013-14––it is normally
most evident in the December quarter of the year.
● While agriculture is no longer the force it was in the economy, the
fact that 50% of people still work on the land suggests secondround effects on incomes and consumption are likely. An increase
in food supply would also help depress inflation.
prospects, we believe many underestimate the impact of two
potentially positive factors. One is the powerful turnaround in net
exports in July and August, which we expect to continue. The
other is the focus of this note and relates to the agricultural sector.
● Over the past 50 years, India has had nine “droughts” which have
not been followed by a subsequent year of significantly deficient
rainfall, the last of which was in 2012. The key point is that on
each of the last eight occasions, real agricultural output surged,
with an average rise of 11.3% and a range of 7.2-15.6%.
● This suggests that forecasters are underestimating the likely
bounce in Indian agricultural production in 2013-14––it is normally
most evident in the December quarter of the year.
● While agriculture is no longer the force it was in the economy, the
fact that 50% of people still work on the land suggests secondround effects on incomes and consumption are likely. An increase
in food supply would also help depress inflation.
Godrej Properties - Updating Model, Staying EW :: Morgan Stanley Research,
GPL continues to build its project portfolio through
the partnership and acquisition route. The balance
sheet should improve thanks to the recently
concluded Rs7 bln rights issue. However, the
sluggish macro climate, gradual ramp-up, and full
valuations keep us EW on the stock.
Our new March 2014e NAV is Rs626/share… We
incorporate new project launches and the acquisition of
new projects (Joint Development / DM model). We have
updated project prices and the execution schedule in
line with current market conditions. See Exhibit 2.
We have also cut our F14 and F15 EPS estimates by
45% each, driven by slower-than-expected sales at the
Ahmedabad and Commercial projects, delay in planned
new launches, and new revenue recognition guidelines.
…and we derive our new price target of Rs407/share
by deepening our target discount to NAV to 35%:
The change from a 15% target discount is to account for
group de-rating (52% discount to NAV) and the current
adverse macro climate. This is offset by positives,
including quality brand name, prospects for operational
scale-up, and strengthening of the balance sheet.
Scale up in operation required to unlock value: GPL
stock is down 33% YTD (vs. 41% drop in Realty Index)
and its discount to forward NAV is now 42%. To us,
valuations appear full on a P/E basis – 17x for F14e and
13x for F15e (~25% understated due to high interest
cost capitalization). Liquidation of unsold inventory of
commercial assets, faster pre-sales and execution, and
deployment of excess capital should be the key value
drivers.
the partnership and acquisition route. The balance
sheet should improve thanks to the recently
concluded Rs7 bln rights issue. However, the
sluggish macro climate, gradual ramp-up, and full
valuations keep us EW on the stock.
Our new March 2014e NAV is Rs626/share… We
incorporate new project launches and the acquisition of
new projects (Joint Development / DM model). We have
updated project prices and the execution schedule in
line with current market conditions. See Exhibit 2.
We have also cut our F14 and F15 EPS estimates by
45% each, driven by slower-than-expected sales at the
Ahmedabad and Commercial projects, delay in planned
new launches, and new revenue recognition guidelines.
…and we derive our new price target of Rs407/share
by deepening our target discount to NAV to 35%:
The change from a 15% target discount is to account for
group de-rating (52% discount to NAV) and the current
adverse macro climate. This is offset by positives,
including quality brand name, prospects for operational
scale-up, and strengthening of the balance sheet.
Scale up in operation required to unlock value: GPL
stock is down 33% YTD (vs. 41% drop in Realty Index)
and its discount to forward NAV is now 42%. To us,
valuations appear full on a P/E basis – 17x for F14e and
13x for F15e (~25% understated due to high interest
cost capitalization). Liquidation of unsold inventory of
commercial assets, faster pre-sales and execution, and
deployment of excess capital should be the key value
drivers.
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