15 September 2013

Green shoots in the economy? :: Business Line

Bad times for the economy could soon be over, if macroeconomic numbers released earlier in the week are any indication. With developed economies doing well, exports looked up, showing a growth of 13 per cent in August 2013 over the same month last year. At the same time, the trend of shrinking gold imports continued, resulting in a narrower trade deficit. Industrial production numbers released towards the end of the week also shored up confidence. The IIP for July grew by 2.6 per cent over July 2012, backed by a double-digit growth in capital goods output.
RBI crackdown on unregulated NBFCs
After defaults from companies such as Rose Valley and the Saradha group, the RBI plans to get tough on companies accepting deposits from the public. Remedial measures could include speedy initiation of legal action. The RBI also runs public awareness campaigns. Although 12,230 non-banking financial companies (NBFC) are registered with the RBI, the regulator is actively monitoring only 236 deposit-taking NBFCs and the systemically important ones. Besides, an RBI survey has found that there are 96 companies accepting deposits without registering with the RBI. Guidelines for raising money through NCDs (non-convertible debentures) and for gold loan companies are also on the cards.

PF- 8.5% interest likely; Reconstituted EPFO board meeting likely on October 4 :: ET

The reconstituted EPFO's Central Board of Trustees (CBT), which has to take a call on interest rate on PF deposits for the current fiscal, is likely to hold its first meeting on October 4.

The meeting of the CBT headed by the Labour Minister is likely to be called on October 4 for reconstituting EPFO's sub-panels like its advisory body Finance and Investment Committee (FIC), an Employees' Provident Fund Organisation's (EPFO) official said.

As per the practice, FIC vets financial proposals of EPFO and puts those before the CBT for a final call. The committee is supposed to vet and put forward the proposal for providing a rate of interest on PF deposits every year.

EPFO could not announce the interest rate on PF deposits for the current fiscal as the FIC is yet to be constituted after the CBT was reconstituted in June.

The sub-panels like FIC were dissolved after CBT was formed again in June. Once FIC is reconstituted, the EPFO would provide official estimates to it for vetting and putting forward its view before CBT for taking final call.

According to sources, EPFO is likely to announce an interest rate of 8.5 per cent on PF deposits for 2013-14 to its over five crore subscribers, the same as provided for last fiscal.

The preliminary estimates indicate that the payment of 8.5 per cent rate of interest will leave no deficit for EPFO and could rather leave some surplus for the body.

EPFO paid 8.5 per cent interest rate to its subscribers in 2012-13, which was higher than 8.25 provided in the 2011-12 fiscal.

FD Schemes from "AAA" Rated Company

Attractive FD schemes from Top Performing Companies with sound track record. 
 

Company NameMinimum AmountRate of Interest (%)Additional Interest for Sr. CitizensRating
12
Months
14
Months
15
Months
22 Months
24 Months
33
Months
36
Months
40 Months
DHFL AASHRAY Deposit Plus10000
-
10.51--
-
--10.500.50%
CARE (AA+) FD
BWR FAAA
Gruh Finance Ltd20009.50---9.75-10.00-0.25%
MAAA (ICRA)
FAAA (CRISIL)
HDFC Ltd - Platinum Deposits20000--9.759.60-9.50-0.25%
FAAA (CRISIL)
MAAA (ICRA)
LIC Housing Finance Ltd100008.75---9.00-9.25-
0.10% (upto Rs.50000/-)
0.25% (Rs.51000/- & above)
FAAA/Stable (CRISIL)
Mahindra Finance - Samruddhi100009.25---10.00-10.25-0.25%
FAAA (CRISIL)
Shriram Transport - Unnati250009.25---9.75-10.75-0.25%
FAA+/stable (CRISIL) MAA+/stable (ICRA)

Technicals: Bank of India, Carborundum, Hindustan Copper, Hindustan Zinc, Reliance Industrial Infrastructure, Deepak Fertilizers :: Business Line


Pivotals - Infosys, Reliance Industries, SBI, Tata Steel :: Business Line


UltraTech cements a good deal :: Business Line


Goldman Sachs -The consequences of China’s actions :PDF link

Goldman Sachs -Down but not out :PDF link

Morgan Stanley -Emerging Dollars :PDF link

Morgan stanley -Currency Monthly :PDF link

J. P Morgan -Logistics Ecosystem Forum :PDF link

Morgan stanley -Growing Support for Tighter :PDF link

Morgan Stanley Research, ASEAN Equity Strategy Investing to Limit Downside

ASEAN Equity Strategy
Investing to Limit Downside
Risk; Prefer Singapore
Impact on our views: Investors will likely need to protect
themselves from downside risk in an environment of
rising rates and slowing growth. We prefer:1) Singapore
over Thailand over Indonesia; 2) Global Cyclicals over
Domestic Consumption; and 3) Beneficiaries of Rising
Interest Rates.
Further improving DM and deteriorating EM: Our
global economics team upgraded its view on developed
market (DM) economic growth and estimates G10 GDP
growth of 2.9% in 2013 and 3.5% in 2014, and
downgraded its forecasts for EM to 4.8% for 2013 and
4.9% for 2014. Our 2015 earnings are 6-20% below
consensus and our new 12-month forward index targets
imply 6% and 1% upside for MSCI Singapore and MSCI
Thailand, respectively, and 3% downside for MSCI
Indonesia.
Singapore over Thailand over Indonesia: Our
recommendations are also premised on:1) limiting
downside risk; 2) slowing domestic growth versus
stabilizing global growth; and 3) rising rates.
Overweight sectors: Indonesia Industrials and Utilities,
Thailand Energy and Materials,and Singapore Capital
Goods.
Underweight sectors: Indonesia Consumer Staples
and Consumer Discretionary, Thailand Consumer
Staples and Healthcare and Singapore Telecom.
Stock recommendations: ASEAN Focus 20
Theme #1 Global Cyclicals: United Tractors, ITMG,
Harum, PTT, PTTGC, Thai Airways, Esso Thailand,
Noble Group, First Resources, Wilmar International,
Keppel Corp, SIA, ST Engineering.
Theme #2 Rate Beneficiaries: DBS, OCBC, Bank
Mandiri
Theme # 3 Bottom up, attractively valued stocks:
Semen Indonesia, CP Foods, PGas