10 September 2013

Global Technical Perspective (10-Sept-13-Edel)

Technical Research - Global Technical Perspective (10-Sept-13-Edel)

We are pleased to send you this week's issue of Global Technical Perspective.

We hope you find this information useful. As always we welcome your thoughts, questions and feedback.


  •  Nifty (futs) – swift rebound rally to 5808 / 5823 (50 week SMA); further upside risk remains

  •  Bank Nifty (futs) – retracement rally to continue; targets of 10,190 and 10,700

  •  S&P 500 – up trend pivoted by 21 WEMA; breakdown risk recede

  •  MSCI Asia ex-Japan – momentum buy to drive index higher in the short-term

  •  DAX – 21 WEMA keeps up trend intact; momentum turns neutral

  •  US 10-year yield – rally likely to stall around 3.0%; momentum overheated

  •  DXY – likely to trade in a range of 81-82.50

  •  USDINR – finally some relief after early scare; look for test of support at 62.60

  •  Brent Crude Oil – wobbly after breakout ; bearish below $111

  •  Gold – sideways price action likely in the short-term ; rebound rally to fail below $1354


Regards,

Blue Star: BUY :: Business Line


It’s the tech money, honey :: Business Line


Technicals: Yes Bank, Hinduja Ventures, Tata Power, Aarti Drugs, SKS, IDFC, :: Business Line


Decoding the 80:20 deal :: Business Line

The existing 80:20 home loan schemes expose the borrower to risk in case of default in payments by the builder.
Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of India cautioned home buyers on innovative home loan schemes, popularly known as 80:20 or 75:25 schemes. The interest in these schemes had heightened in recent months, as builders and developers increasingly found it difficult to access funding. The central bank has clearly nipped the growing interest in the bud. This is because the scheme, in its current form, seems to give a raw deal to home buyers. Read on to understand how.

THE ORIGINAL SCHEME

This scheme was pioneered by HDFC, a leader in the housing finance market in India. In mid-2000, Nahar group, a Mumbai-based developer had tied up with HDFC to offer the 80:20 scheme. Under this original scheme, the buyer paid 20 per cent of total value of home as upfront payment, and started paying the equated monthly instalments (EMI) after taking possession of the house. During the construction period, HDFC offered construction finance to the developer under its Advance Disbursement Facility Scheme (which it also offers to other developers). The home buyer hence did not have to bear any risk over and above 20 per cent in case of default by the developer.

MOIL - BUY :: Business Line


Short-term outlook for silver mixed :: Business Line

Silver is mainly used in making jewellery, coins and utensils. It is also used in the electrical and electronics sector.
The Reserve Bank of India’s provisional data show that silver imports dropped by 61 per cent to $1.98 billion in 2012-13 from $5.08 billion in 2011-12. Imports could fall further as the Government has increased the Customs duty for silver to 10 per cent from 6 per cent last month. The Ministry of Mines expects annual silver demand to double and surpass 6,000 tonnes by 2016-17.
Data from the Silver Institute as of 2012 show that Mexico is the world’s largest producer followed by China and Peru. India holds the 13th place. Global production increased by 4 per cent in 2012 to 787 million ounces (Moz) from 757 Moz in 2011.
In this week’s dissector we take a look at the future of global silver spot price and India’s Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) futures price.

LONG-TERM VIEW

The spot price has closed higher by 1.4 per cent this week at $23.85 a troy ounce and the MCX benchmark contract is at Rs 54,940 a kg , up by 3.25 per cent for the week.
The global spot price of silver is in a strong downtrend since recording its record high of $49.8 in April 2011. Crucial resistances are at $25, $26.2 and $27.5. A decisive break above $27.5 is required for the long-term downtrend to reverse. Below $27.5, one should not be surprised to see another fall to $16-15 levels in the coming months. On the contrary, if $27.5 is broken decisively, then it can rally to $32-35. However, the possibility of a rise to $32-35 levels looks less probable.
MCX futures are currently witnessing a corrective rally after a sharp fall from Rs 73,600 in April 2011 to Rs 38,536 in June 2013. This corrective rally is facing resistance in Rs 59,500-60,500 region and is keeping the overall downtrend intact. If the pull back from this resistance level continues, then there is a danger to see a fall to Rs 41,000-40,000.
An eventual break below Rs 40,000 can test levels of Rs 26,000-25,000 on its way down. If the support at Rs 40,000 manages to hold up, then a broad sideways range between Rs 40,000-60,500 can be seen for some time. On the upside, the chances of an immediate break above Rs 60,500 are less. But a breach above this level, can test new highs surpassing the earlier high of Rs 73,600.

MEDIUM-TERM VIEW

The medium-term outlook is looking weak with a “grave stone” reversal pattern on the MCX contract’s weekly candle chart. Resistance is at Rs 56,100, and then at Rs 60,000-60,500. Having said this, the contract can fall to Rs 45,500-44,000 while it remains below Rs 56,100.
Although an intermediate break above Rs 56,100 cannot be ruled out, chances for the contract to breach Rs 60,500 look bleak.

SHORT-TERM VIEW

The short-term view for the MCX contract is mixed as the current price hovers between the support region of Rs 53,000-52,000 and the resistance zone of Rs 57,300-57,500.We will have to wait for a break either below Rs 52,000 or above Rs 57,500 which would give the direction for the short-term.
A breach below Rs 52,000 can take the contract lower to Rs 49,000-48,000, while a break above Rs 57,500 can take it higher to Rs 60,000-60,500.

Technicals-Reliance Industries, SBI, Infosys, Tata Steel, :: Business Line


Index Outlook: Speed bumps ahead :: Business Line


ING Vysya Bank - BUY :: Business Line