02 July 2013

Equity Strategy DFC: A Welcome Oasis:: Jefferies,

Key Takeaway
The $18b DFC project will be the first major project coming in an environment
of singularly weak investment cycle. Along with other feeder routes and the
industrial corridor, the DFC could pull in investments of $40-45b in the next
five years. The DFC project is similar in cumulative scale of investments to the
highway program of the past 15 years and will likely have as big an impact.

Property-: Balance sheet and valuations remain key in an uncertain demand environment :: Credit Suisse

● The demand environment remains uncertain: Residential
absorption remains muted along with high inventory levels. On the
commercial side, although absolute inventory has dropped
significantly in the past two-and-a-half years, the inventory levels
as a proportion to absorption remain very high. Full report.
● The balance sheet becomes important in this environment: We
prefer stocks that have low leverage, which will enable them to
manage a poor demand environment better and buy land parcels, if
attractive.
● This, coupled with relative valuations, makes Oberoi our preferred
pick: Among the Indian property names, Oberoi has the strongest
balance sheet (it has net cash), attractive relative valuations (FY14
P/E of 8x, EV/EBITDA of 5x) and reasonable ROE (15% in FY14).
● We assume coverage on Oberoi with OUTPERFORM and on DLF
with NEUTRAL: Our target price for Oberoi of Rs275, implying
43% upside, is based on 15% discount to NAV. Our DLF TP of
Rs190 presents 8% upside and is based on a DCF model.

Yes Bank- Retail liabilities on the rise, retail assets up next; reiterate Buy (on CL) :: Goldman Sachs

We reiterate our Buy rating on YESB (on Conviction List) following our
recent meeting with the management. Key takeaways: (1) YESB is on track
in garnering CASA (38% CAGR FY13-FY16E), and creating ground work for
retail asset as it builds a stronger liability franchise and doubles its network
by FY15. (2) Focus on productivity (accounts/sales person), value/account
(>2X peers), and cross-sell (from 2.5X to 4X target) should ensure profitable
growth. (3) New area of growth, business banking, targeted through branch
network. (4) On corporate side, focus is on refinancing activity; knowledge
based and collateralized lending and fee income likely to reduce risks.
Catalyst
We believe improving Current Account Saving Account (CASA), roll-out and
increase in retail assets, de-risking of balance sheet and growth in earnings
will be the key catalysts for YESB over the next couple of years: (1) We
expect YESB to open 470 branches in FY13-FY16, which would drive CASA
ratio to 28.5% by FY16E from 18.9% in FY13 (management target is 30% by
FY15); (2) we forecast net interest margin improvement of 55bps to 3.3% by
FY16 on the back of improving CASA, falling yields on wholesale
borrowing, while base/prime lending rates remain sticky; (3) ramp up in
retail assets, and potential booking of capital gains on investment book
(SLR book duration at 5 years) along with higher dynamic provisions could
be an added catalyst for the stock, in our view.
Valuation
We introduce FY16E EPS and fine-tune FY14E-15E EPS for Annual report
updates. We maintain our 12m CAMELOT-based TP of Rs620, offering a
potential upside of 30%. YESB trades at 2.4X/1.9X PBR and 10.3X/8.2X PER
in FY14E/FY15E, which we consider fairly attractive given above-peer PAT
growth of over 24%, RoA and RoE of 1.6% and 26% average (FY14-FY16E).
Key risks
Key personnel departure, lower GDP growth, and tight liquidity conditions.
INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP
Asia Pacific Buy List
Asia Pacific Conviction Buy List

Asian Paints In Consonance; Maintain BUY : Emkay

n Change in its brand look signifies establishment of a closer
rapport with customers, while acquisition of Sleek Group
(51%) depicts metamorphosis into a home décor company
n Product mix, improved distribution, new product launches,
international operations and high dividend payout – Key
positives
n Low volume growth, margin offsets & cautious outlook on
business – Key negatives
n Emkay forecasts for APL with UVG of 7-9% and 170 bps yoy
expansion in Ebidta margins in consonance with management
commentary. Retain BUY
‘Changing the Look, Transforming the Outlook’ says Annual Report 2013
Annual Report 2013 marks major changes and transformation in business outlook. Asian
Paints has changed its brand look by unveiling a new corporate brand entity, signifying its
intent to establish a closer rapport with its customers. With its recent foray into the home
improvement segment through acquisition of a 51% stake in Sleek Group, it is
metamorphosing itself into a home décor company, depicting transformation in business.
Product mix, improved improvement, new product launches, international
operations and higher dividend payout – Key positives
§ Richer product mix led by premium interior and exterior emulsions paints. Interior
emulsions growth was driven by Royale and its variants, while Apex Ultima in exterior
emulsions saw strong growth, led by higher ad spends and marketing activations.
§ Value growth of 12.7% in standalone operations was supported by price increases
(5.1% price hike in FY13).
§ Lower inflation in most of the raw materials led to gross margin expansion of 180bps yoy
to 42.2% in standalone operations.
§ Continues to augment distribution network; installs 2900 Colour Worlds and total
installations reaching 24,000 in India. APL increases Colour Idea stores to 100 in FY13.
§ Launched ‘Smart Care’ range of water proofing and crack building, which received
excellent response. Also, enhanced focus on wood finish by launching products in key
wood finish market in collaboration with Renner of Italy.
§ Despite the turbulence in Middle East and slowdown in Caribbean & Asia, the global
operations posted a healthy revenue growth of 23% yoy to Rs14.2bn, with a constant
currency growth of 13% yoy and APAT growth of 45% yoy to Rs 1bn.
§ Commissioned its 7th decorative plant with initial installed capacity of 300,000 KL in
Khandala. Also expanded capacities in Rohtak plant by 50,000 KL p.a. to 200,000 KL
p.a. and added 240,00 KL p.a. globally.
§ Consolidated capex spends at Rs 6.4bn in FY13. Despite this, APL generated free cash
flows of Rs 5.5bn vs Rs 1.6bn in FY12.
§ Dividend payout increases to 43% in FY13 versus average of 40% in last 3 year. Higher
dividend payout exuberates confidence on future cash generation.

Gas Price Hike - Impact on Power Sector :: Fitch

Generation Costs to Increase: India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) says that the fuel cost per unit for natural gas based power generation could increase by 56% to INR3.41/kwh if domestic gas prices were to increase to USD6.775/mmbtu from the current USD4.2/mmbtu. This would manifest itself as an increase of 9paisa/kwh on the total Indian power generation of 912 billion kwh, which would lead to an additional burden of INR78bn towards gas costs on the gas-based power generation of 65 billion kwh. The additional cost, which is also contributed by the fall in INR, would ultimately have to be either recovered from consumers or borne by state power utilities.
Gas Prices Could Increase: The government is evaluating a proposal to increase domestically available natural gas prices. Various options suggested by experts and stakeholders propose a revised price in the range of USD4.4/mmbtu to USD10.8/mmbtu. The Rangarajan Panel has suggested a simple average of producers’ net back price for Indian imports and world average producers’ net back price, thus arriving at a price of USD8.8/mmbtu. The Planning Commission has suggested a price of USD10.8/mmbtu. On the basis of feelers from the Petroleum Ministry, some industry reports suggest a revised gas price of USD6.775/mmbtu.
Rupee Fall Additional Worry: Gas prices are denominated in USD and the recent volatility in the USD/INR exchange rate could further accentuate domestic gas price in INR terms. This analysis captures the twin impact of a possible gas price increase and the current INR depreciation on the power generation cost of gas-based power plants. The Indian power industry, a major consumer of natural gas, mostly operates on the principle of pass-through of fuel costs to consumers.
Fuel Costs Highly Sensitive: Ind-Ra estimates the fuel cost per unit of domestic gas-based power plants to increase by INR1.22/kwh to INR3.57/kwh (56% to 163%) depending upon the increase in domestic gas prices (USD6.775/mmbtu-USD10.8/mmbtu) and rupee depreciation (refer Table 1 and Table 2). This could mean an additional annual cost of INR78bn-INR228bn for power distribution companies (Table 3). The additional burden could increase further to INR166bn-INR485bn annually if gas availability were to improve, which would result in higher plant load factors (PLFs) for gas-based plants (Table 4).
Given that 7.1% (65 billion units) of the total electricity generation (912 billion units) during FY13 was gas based, the overall impact on all India fuel costs on account of higher gas prices and rupee depreciation is likely to range from 9 paisa to 25 paisa per unit (Table 5).
Off-take Risk Increase: Gas-based power plants would move further down in the merit order despatch schedule if gas prices were to increase from the current levels. This may increase off-take risks. The cost of generation from a domestic gas-based power plant could be 53% higher at INR5.41/kwh, compared with a coal-fired domestic plant operating at benchmark parameters (Table 6).
Consumers Being Impacted From Multiple Directions: Besides the gas price hike, the recent moves to allow pass-through for price hikes in imported coal and higher fixed cost per unit of newly commissioned plants due to higher capex costs are likely to increase power purchase costs for distribution companies (discoms). As many state discoms implemented tariff hikes in 2012 and 2013, the capability of the discoms to pass on price increases to consumers would remain limited.

Why foreign investors matter? :: Business Line

The US Federal Reserve Chairman, Bernanke, did more than signal a cut back in monetary stimulus. He brought back memories of the massive sell-off by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in 2008 in our own equity markets. Why?
The Federal Reserve in the past five years has been pumping money to revive the battered US economy. The $85-billion monthly bond buying programme of the US central bank has been a source of liquidity for global markets. Now, amid signs of recovery in the US economy, investors world over are jittery.
Most markets and asset classes in the world have gained momentum in the last few years backed by the money infused by the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme. Hence, plugging this bounty would mean FIIs pulling out money from emerging markets soon. A depreciating rupee too did little to keep the FIIs from exiting the Indian market.
A weaker rupee implies lower returns (in dollar terms) for overseas investors on their Indian investments. Besides, there has also been other macro concerns such as inflation and high current account deficit, dampening the market sentiment in India.
During the month of June, FIIs emerged net sellers (sales exceeding purchases) of equity and debt with net outflows of Rs 11,027 crore and Rs 33,135 crore in the respective markets.

WHO ARE THEY

FIIs are entities established or incorporated outside India permitted to invest in the Indian market. As part of the reform measures in the early 1990s, FIIs were allowed to invest in the Indian market, to create foreign inflows.
An FII could be a foreign central bank, a sovereign wealth fund, a mutual fund, an insurance company or a pension fund. They can invest both in the equity and debt market.
Investments in the debt market are subject to limits. FIIs can now invest up to $30 billion in government debt and up to $51 billion in corporate debt market.
During the global financial crisis of 2008, FIIs sold close to Rs 53,000 crore in Indian equity markets. The trend soon reversed from the beginning of 2009, as the US Federal Reserve started its quantitative easing programme. Cumulatively they have invested close to Rs 4.2 lakh crores in Indian equity markets, between 2009 and now, which is 65 per cent of the value of equity investments held by FIIs today.
During 2012-13 alone, FIIs were net buyers to the extent of Rs.1.4 lakh crore, the highest ever inflows seen during a year.
Money pumped into the global financial system by central banks was a source of inflows into India. Reforms initiated by the Indian government to boost growth too created a positive market sentiment.

SEBI WELCOMES FIIS

Besides, with the growing uncertainty in European markets, FIIs continued to invest in emerging markets such as India.
The debt market too caught foreign investors’ interest and started to see significant investment from 2010 onwards. The FIIs have invested close to Rs 1.5 lakh crore in the debt market till date.
At a time when the Indian markets are grappling with the steep fall in rupee and aggressive selling by foreign investors, the Securities and Exchange Board of India wheeled in a new set of norms to ease in entry of foreign investors. Based on the Chandrasekhar Committee recommendations, SEBI has approved a single window for all categories of foreign investors, clubbing together FIIs, sub-Accounts and Qualified Foreign Investors. Categorised as Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs), this would include investments not more than 10 per cent of equity in a company.
Uptil now, each investor category was subject to different investment limits and regulatory requirements. Also, with the delegation of registration of FPIs to the designated depository participants, the entry process is expected to quicken. FIIs have pulled out close to $7.5 billion from Indian markets in the last month. While the move will simplify processes, macro concerns need to recede, to trigger FII inflows.

COLGATE PALMOLIVE Fore warned is fore armed : Edelweiss,

We recently met Ms. Prabha Parameswaran, Managing Director, Colgate‐
Palmolive India (Colgate). She reiterated that there is no slowdown in
growth, except for some impact in the mouthwash segment.
Management expects sales growth momentum (16% CAGR over FY08‐13)
to remain robust riding rise in both penetration (rural stands at only 63%
against 91% in urban) and per capita consumption (India half of China;
pushing “brushing twice”). We believe the company is well equipped to
counter competition from P&G’s impending entry in the toothpaste
market. However, we expect ad spends in the toothpaste category to
accelerate (will aid broadcasters like ZEE, Sun TV). Maintain ‘HOLD’.

What drives auto acquisitions :: Business Line

Automakers seek access to technology, new markets or a longer line-up of products from the acquired companies.
Apollo Tyres’ recent buyout of US-based Cooper Tires was one of the biggest deals inked in the history of the Indian auto industry. The acquisition, pegged at Rs 14,500 crore, was worth about Rs 5,000 crore more than the landmark buy of the Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) brands by Tata Motors in 2008.
What drives auto and auto component makers towards such buyouts?
Access to markets
Be it Mahindra & Mahindra’s (M&M) acquisition of Punjab Tractors (2007), the JLR deal or Apollo’s acquisition of Dunlop Tyres (2006), Vredestein Banden (2009) and now, Cooper, a key reason for all these acquisitions has been geographic diversification — basically access to new markets.
Punjab Tractors, for example, was a timely buy for M&M when its market leadership position was threatened. Earlier in 2005, TAFE had bought out the tractors division of Eicher Motors to establish a hold over northern markets such as UP, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh. These States were known for their robust tractor demand.
Mahindra’s presence, however, was predominantly restricted to the West and South of India. Punjab Tractors, with its complementary presence in the North, fitted well into M&M’s strategy to improve its market share.
With more diversified presence, companies are able to ride over a slowdown in one region through better sales in another.
Nowhere is this demonstrated better than in the financials of Tata Motors. With the domestic commercial vehicle industry reeling under a cyclical slowdown, the India business of the company booked a loss of Rs 312 crore in the latest January-March 2013 quarter. It was the Jaguar Land Rover business that came to its rescue at the consolidated level.
A third advantage is the improved visibility and consequently the opportunity to cross-sell. With Cooper not having a strong presence in the truck-bus tyres segment, Apollo Tyres plans to introduce ‘Apollo’ brand truck tyres in China and North America through Cooper’s network.
After acquiring Ssangyong in 2010, M&M has already introduced Rexton, a utility vehicle from the former, in India.
With companies buying out players much bigger than themselves in the global markets, their Indian operations are being relegated to a comparatively small position.
Therefore, recent acquisitions have led to the emergence of global players in the Indian auto industry. For example, in the year ended March 2013, JLR contributed almost three-fourths of sales for Tata Motors. Apollo’s consolidated operations will now see 50-60 per cent of revenues coming from the US and Europe alone.
Access to technology
Consider M&M’s buyout of Bangalore-based Reva Electric Cars. With electric cars having negligible market presence in the country, this buy was certainly not targeted at market access. It was, instead, for access to the electric-vehicle technology. After the acquisition of Reva in 2010, M&M has launched the e20, a second electric vehicle from the Reva stable. It is beginning work on an electric power train for both its vehicles and vehicles from Ssangyong.
Tata Motors also has technological benefits from JLR. The latter is the global leader in the use of materials such as aluminium to reduce vehicle weight, thereby making it more fuel-efficient. Three of the products in its current portfolio — the Jaguar XJ, XK and the all-new Range Rover launched in December 2012 — use this technology.
Product line expansion
The desire to add to the product line is also another reason for acquisitions in the auto industry.
From a presence only in utility vehicles (Scorpio, Bolero, SUV 500, etc.), small commercial vehicles (Alpha, Gio, Genio, Maxximo) and tractors, M&M forayed into several other segments through joint ventures and acquisitions.
While it used the joint venture route to enter into passenger cars (Logan) and truck-bus (Navistar) segments, it debuted in the two-wheeler space with the acquisition of the ailing Kinetic Motors in 2008. It captured a spot in the premium utility vehicles space through the Ssangyong buy.
For Apollo Tyres, Cooper complements Vredestein in terms of product line. While the latter focuses on winter and speciality tyres, Cooper focuses on light vehicle (passenger vehicles and light trucks) tyres.
A presence across different auto segments helps make up for a slowdown in one of them. A component maker gains bargaining power relative to automakers when he expands his product portfolio.

Telecommunications Data Story Continues :: Morgan Stanley Research

We retain our Attractive view on Indian telcos and
continue to highlight Idea Cellular as our top pick:
This follows the incumbents’ recent cuts in 2G data
tariffs for pay-per-use plans. We note that average data
volumes have grown by more than 20% QoQ in the last
2-3 quarters while data tariffs have stabilized.
Despite the rate cuts… Press reports indicate that
Vodafone has slashed data prices by 80% and Airtel and
Idea have cut data usage rates by 90% in the last week
(Economic Times, June 18-20, 2013). These rate cuts
apply to pay-per-use plans, applicable to introductory
data users and data plan users, after initial data
allowances have been exhausted.
…we believe that the data growth story will continue
to evolve: The rate cuts will help enhance data volume
growth, particularly among pre-paid users, who will find
the pay-per-use data plans more affordable, in our view.
We highlight that the pay-per-use 2G data rates are
much higher than the implied data plan rates: For
example, one needs to only pay Rs125 per month for
1GB 2G data usage, which implies a rate of Rs0.13/MB.
The new pay-per-use 2G data rates are 1-2 paise per
10KB or Rs1-2/MB. Hence, despite the 80-90% cut in
these rates, they still remain as high as ~16x the implied
2G data plan rates (Exhibit 2). Yet they contribute <5 p="">of data revenues.
We do not see any major impact from the tariff cut
on the revenues of the telco operators: Heavy data
users are likely to subscribe to a data plan, based on
their usage patterns. Thus, a very small proportion of
data users would actually end up paying on the basis of
the higher pay-per-use rate.
We maintain our current estimate of overall ARPM
growth of 6-7% over the next four quarters: This is
driven by 9-20% growth in non-voice ARPMs and 5%
growth in voice ARPMs.

Have the auto deals succeeded? :: Business Line