20 September 2012

Category-Wise Turnover 20-Sep-12

Trade DateCategoryBuy Value in Rs.CroresSell Value in Rs.Crores
20-Sep-12Mutual Funds88.4821.6966.79
20-Sep-12Proprietory Trades57678.1456655.191022.95
20-Sep-12Others49305.9349608.43-302.50
Notes :
1.  Buy / Sell value at the end of day:
     Options Value (Buy/Sell) = Strike price * Qty
     Futures Value (Buy/Sell) = Traded Price * Qty
2. Others exclude FIIs, Mutual Funds, Proprietory Trades

 


-- 

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services - Stake sale in subsidiary at attractive valuations:: Edelweiss


Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services (MMFS) has approved 12.37% stake sale in its wholly-owned subsidiary, Mahindra Insurance Brokers Limited (MBIL) to Inclusion Resources, a subsidiary of Leapfrog Financial Inclusion Fund. MBIL is engaged in insurance broking operations, sourcing 85% of customers from the Mahindra Group. The pre-tax inflow to MMFS will be INR643mn valuing MBIL at INR5.2bn (INR50 per share for MMFS). Given the strategic nature of the investment with investment horizon of 5-7 years the sale has taken place at 38P/E on FY12 basis. Further Leapfrog will participate in fresh equity infusion of 2.63%, increasing stake in MBIL to 15% and thereby also providing funds for expansion.
The transaction has been concluded at very lucrative valuations, in our view. Further, equity infusion of ~INR140mn will take care of expansion needs of MBIL which was recently awarded a Composite Broking License, enabling it to undertake Reinsurance broking in addition to its existing insurance broking for Life and Non-Life products. We view this as long term positive as MBIL will expand to clientele outside of Mahindra Group.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 20-Sep-2012

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 20-Sep-2012 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES554221518.66561281523.5249822313669.78-4.86
INDEX OPTIONS44929512398.4146481512827.07191063753030.68-428.66
STOCK FUTURES960582625.201095903054.69102070628335.26-429.48
STOCK OPTIONS613891819.64586051743.87780382297.6875.76
      Total-787.24

 

-- 

FII & DII trading activity across NSE and BSE 20-09-2012



Buy
SellNet
ValueValueValue
FII3187.083260.75
-73.67
DII1136.671467.78-331.11
 
 


Mahindra and Mahindra - Quanto to target entry level sedans ::Edelweiss

Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) has launched ‘Quanto’, a mini SUV at a price range of INR 582,000- 736,000 (ex-showroom Thane). The price is in-line with our expectations though it is higher than the rumoured INR500,000. The company wants to target customers willing to upgrade to entry level sedans. Success of this new product should further strengthen M&M’s position in the fast growing utility vehicle (UV) segment and compensate for the current weakness in the tractor segment. We recommend ‘BUY’ with a target price of INR839.

NSE, Bulk deals,

DateSymbolSecurity NameClient NameBuy / SellQuantity TradedTrade Price /
Wght. Avg.
Price
Remarks
20-Sep-2012DHUNINVDhunseri Investments LtdMONET SECURITIES PRIVATE LTDBUY58,50055.00-
20-Sep-2012DHUNINVDhunseri Investments LtdUNIVERSAL INDUSTRIAL FUND LIMITEDSELL58,50055.00-
20-Sep-2012EDSERVEdserv Softsystems LimiteKALPATHI INVESTMENTS PVT LTDSELL2,56,22516.89-
20-Sep-2012HOTELRUGBYHotel Rugby LtdSAVITRIDEVI JAIPRAKASH AGARWALBUY1,02,62538.31-
20-Sep-2012KAJARIACERKajaria Ceramics LtdGARG BROTHERS PRIVATE LIMITEDSELL3,81,467179.00-
20-Sep-2012KAJARIACERKajaria Ceramics LtdGMO EMERGING MARKETS FUNDBUY8,85,000179.00-
20-Sep-2012KFAKingfisher Airlines Ltd.TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.BUY84,19,51812.59-
20-Sep-2012KFAKingfisher Airlines Ltd.TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.SELL84,19,51812.61-
20-Sep-2012ONMOBILEOnMobile Global LimitedGENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTDBUY7,05,92043.55-
20-Sep-2012ONMOBILEOnMobile Global LimitedGENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTDSELL7,05,92043.56-
20-Sep-2012RANKLINRanklin Solutions LimitedKOKA VIJAY KUMARBUY42,5775.15-
20-Sep-2012RANKLINRanklin Solutions LimitedKOKA VIJAY KUMARSELL42,5775.19-
20-Sep-2012TIDEWATERTide Water Oil Co. (IndiaMARYADA BARTER PVT LTDSELL4,4238000.40-
20-Sep-2012VADILALINDVadilal Industries LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY59,095234.98-
20-Sep-2012VADILALINDVadilal Industries LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL59,295235.13-

BSE, Bulk deals, 20/9/2012

Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
20/9/2012524412Aarey DrugsAJITKUMAR JOGENDARPRASAD SINGHB9030149.47
20/9/2012514332Anuvin IndsTEJAL KAUSHAL SHAHS350008.11
20/9/2012531192Associated FinPANAFIC INDUSTRIALS LTDB3000035.60
20/9/2012531420BMB MusicVINAY JAINS350005.61
20/9/2012509011CHISELSURESH DEVILAL BAGRECHAB100004.95
20/9/2012509011CHISELCOMFORT INTECH LIMITEDS145794.95
20/9/2012532312GeometricRAKESH RADHEYSHYAM JHUNJHUNWALAB2826250106.00
20/9/2012532312GeometricCREDIT SUISSE (SINGAPORE) LIMITED A/C CREDIT SUISSE (SINGAPOS2826250106.00
20/9/2012590077Ranklin Sol-$SHARMILA PARVATANENIB344525.07
20/9/2012590077Ranklin Sol-$KOKA VIJAY KUMARB361525.16
20/9/2012590077Ranklin Sol-$MADHU SUDHAN GARLAPATIS433005.07
20/9/2012590077Ranklin Sol-$KOKA VIJAY KUMARS361525.10
20/9/2012533401Servalakshmi PaperPLATINUMLINE INVESTMENT & TRADING CO LTDB2300004.65
20/9/2012533401Servalakshmi PaperSARBA MANGALAM FINE TEX PRIVATE LIMITEDS2300004.65
20/9/2012524470Syncom Form-$PARADISE VYAPAAR PRIVATE LIMITEDB20000052.75
20/9/2012524470Syncom Form-$ASHA VIJAY BANKDAS20000052.75
20/9/2012519156Vadilal Inds-$CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB59095234.96
20/9/2012519156Vadilal Inds-$CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS59095235.06
20/9/2012507892Winsome DiamondsKOHINOOR DIAMONDS PRIVATE LIMITEDB628335030.30
20/9/2012507892Winsome DiamondsSJR COMMODITIES AND CONSULTANCIES PRIVATE LIMITEDS628335030.30
* B - Buy, S - Sell
** = Weighted Average Trade Price / Trade Price

ICICI Bank ::Prabhudas Lilladher, Banks/Financials conference


􀂄 Still targeting 20% growth in domestic loan book: ICICI maintained its growth
target of 20% in the domestic business largely driven by project disbursals and
pick up in retail credit and such an outcome will be positive in our view as most
banks did indicate that system growth could be ~15%. The target areas in retail
are housing, Auto, and CVs, even though price competition has intensified.
􀂄 Fee income could miss guidance: Growth in fees income looks challenging given
the weak environment especially large corporate related fund and non fund
based fees and hence core fee could be lower than double digit growth
guidance. But with a low base of project finance, 3rd party and corporate fees,
ICICI expects pick up in fee growth from FY14.
􀂄 Structural improvement in margins: Mgt maintained their overall FY13 NIM
guidance of +3.0% and expects margins to inch further to 3.2% over the next 2-
3yrs due to (1) Lower share of overseas book (2) Higher share of non-mortgage
secured credit and (3) easing rates. Wholesale TD rates are coming off
marginally but the cost of retail deposits remains sticky (before SBI cut TD rates).
ICICI is awaiting impact of SBI’s lower mortgage rates on their volumes before
moving on mortgage rates.
􀂄 RIDF investments: There could be a rise in RIDF requirements, but ultimate
allocation to ICICI could be less as the total PSL shortfall in the system could rise
due to increased requirements from foreign banks. Within PSL, ICICI is looking at
gold loans and tractor loans but does not want to do direct Agri lending.
􀂄 Asset Quality: ICICI maintained its credit cost guidance of 75bps and noted that
the guidance has buffer for slippages like Deccan (Rs5bn exposure). Retail
quality continues to remain robust and but ICICI is seeing some inch-up in
slippages in their SME book but stress seems manageable. Restructuring
pipeline continues to remain thin. ICICI does have some non fund based
exposure to Essar (NavBharat acquisition) which is facing CBI scrutiny currently.

Financials - A story of contracting halves: Prabhudas Lilladher,


We conducted our Banks/Financials conference with participation from ~20
banks/NBFCs and banking tour covering regulators/industry experts. Overall
feedback suggested very weak credit offtake but extremely mixed views on near
term asset quality. Apart from easing rates, the most certain positive outcome was
on easing regulatory pressure for the sector especially for NBFCs. Overall feedback
was split in two contrasting halves with PSU banks at one end and retail
banks/NBFCs on the other (positive) and corporate banks/financiers like ICICI/IDFC
having a mixed outlook. We continue our preference for ICICI/Axis/Yes and also
believe most retail NBFCs are well positioned for an easing rate cycle and risks
from tightening regulations is nearing the end.

HDFC Bank ::Prabhudas Lilladher, Banks/Financials conference


􀂄 Asset Quality: Marginally cautious on CVs; sanguine on others: HDFCB was
sanguine on all parts of their retail book except some pockets of pain in MHCV
segments. In the mid sized fleet category (~50 fleet size), HDFCB has seen
cheque bounce rates going up but again they believe that delinquency levels is
just normalising from very low credit costs levels. In spite of some inch-up in
delinquencies expected in CVs, HDFCB continues to maintain it’s ~80-100bps of
credit cost guidance which has proven to be conservative over last 6 qtrs.
􀂄 Maintain margin guidance: HDFCB maintained their margin guidance of 4.1-
4.3% range in spite of some pricing competition in Cars/CVs as they believe that
falling rate environment will be positive for their fixed rate lending book and
hence expect to maintain margin in a tight range.
ô€‚„ Cost efficiency improvement‐ Next profitability driver: As credit costs are at
cyclical lows, HDFCB believes that the next round of ROA improvement will be
led by cost efficiency improvement with 50-100bps yrly improvement in costincome
to be expected over the next 2-3yrs. HDFCB is not the most aggressive in
terms of employee compensation (operating currently at the 2nd quartile) and
believes the new branch strain will get lower over the next 2-3 yrs and will be a
key factor in improving cost efficiency.
ô€‚„ PSL targets ‐Opportunity rather than burden‐ HDFCB well positioned: Of all
banks in our conference, HDFCB was the only one which sees the PSL guidelines
as an opportunity. Management said that they are present in ~400 districts of
the 650 districts and they can tap ~200 more districts profitably. Also, they have
added PSL targets to branch staff KRAs over last 2-3 yrs and have seen strong
branch driven traction on PSL lending.

State Bank of India ::Prabhudas Lilladher, Banks/Financials conference


􀂄 Credit growth sluggish; push on retail to continue: SBI is seeing very limited
pickup in industrial credit and hence acknowledged that they now expect
system credit growth of 14-15%. For SBI, deposit growth was stronger than
industry trend of 13-14% and hence SBI has moved on lowering deposit rates. As
growth remain elusive in other segments, SBI management said that they will
continue to concentrate on retail segments as perceived risk is lower but it is
still too early to ascertain impact from the cut in rates in mortgages/autos.
􀂄 Maintains margin guidance of 3.75%; we see some risks: In spite of its
aggressive retail pricing, SBI maintained its margin guidance of 3.75% for FY13
and management believes that they are just passing on the benefit of SLR cut
and not offering low rates at the cost of margins. SBI has reduced deposit rate
by 50-100bps which is again positive for margins, but very low rates on retail,
cut in rates for SME customers and high NPA % will pressure margins in our view
ô€‚„ Corporate asset quality – Weak Macro will continue to weight: After
disappointing the street in 1Q13 on delinquencies, SBI continues to refrain from
providing guidance on slippages as Macro situation continues to remain fluid.
Management re-iterated that they will have ~Rs30bn of recoveries over next 2
qtrs from slippages they had in 1Q13. We believe a significant pick up in asset
quality is unlikely in the near term given weak macros. Also, SBI seems to have
some exposure to companies where CBI respective coal block allocations.

Kotak Mahindra Bank ::Prabhudas Lilladher, Banks/Financials conference


ô€‚„ Slowing on Growth: With management’s slow economic growth scenario
materializing, Kotak has moderated growth targets significantly to ~20% v/s
+30% growth delivered over the last few qtrs with significant slowdown in CV/CE
portfolio. Core fee income will also moderate but kotak expects to monetise fee
assets in their distressed portfolio and that could aid P&L over next 12mnts.
􀂄 Momentum on SA acquisition strong: SA account accretion continues at a brisk
pace with ~40-45% of the acquisition being coroprate salary accounts. Kotak
believes that even at ~100bps lower term deposit rates from current levels, they
would be willing to hold on their SA rate of 6% as once acquired balances are
generally sticky and SA offers them a signifcant cross sell oppurtunity.
ô€‚„ Asset quality ‐ Extremely cautious on CVs: Kotak has been sounding caution on
CVs for the last 3 mnts but management commentary on CV cycle was more
draconian now especially considering an impending diesel price hike. Kotak
expects some negative outcome for mid level fleet operators over the nest
6mnts. Kotak’s corporate book asset quality is manageable but is very
concerned on some industry Infra exposures.
ô€‚„ Asset quality‐ Very early in picking up weaking signal in SME/corporates: Kotak
discussed that their ability to exit problem accounts early is linked to (1) Smaller
size of their exposure in most corporates (2) short term nature of their funding
and (3) Cashflow escrowing in most cases.

Buy Zee Entertainment:: Updates from Management interaction – Upgrade to BUY from ADD ::Spark Capital


Updates from Management interaction – Upgrade to BUY from ADD
Advertising revenues: While overall ad environment continues to be weak, TV broadcasting is faring better than other mediums , higher spends from FMCG being the major driver. ZEEL’s cause is also helped by the drastic improvement in ratings of Zee TV that shall help it outperform peer group on ad revenue growth in FY13. Management guided that the ad revenue growth rate for non sports business has tapered in 2Q (from the high 18% yoy in 1Q) which could be due to advertisers conserving budgets for spend in festive season (3Q). Going by the trends, we see ZEEL’s non sports business ad revenue growing by 10-12% in 2Q and ~ 12% in FY13.
Quantum of loss in sports business: India centric cricket continues to be a loss making proposition for ZEEL due to the high cost of rights, though important to retain relevance for a sports channel in India. The India-Sri Lanka ODI cricket series in July-Aug’12 should lead to higher losses in the sports biz in 2Q. Doordarshan opting not to air the series with preference for the Olympics meant loss of revenues for the cricket event further impacting its profitability. Higher sports losses shall thus impact overall earnings performance for 2Q. However, this being the only India cricket broadcast for the year management guides for lower losses in the sports business in FY13 Vs Rs1.48bn loss in FY12. We see losses of ~Rs1.2bn in FY13.

YES Bank ::Prabhudas Lilladher, Banks/Financials conference


ô€‚„ Growth moderating: Yes bank is aiming a growth of mid 20’s, but notes that
RWA growth could be less than balance sheet growth as share of retail advances
increases. As of now the approach to growth is that of flight to safety and the
bank has sold of some of the loans/credit substitutes. The bank has a bottom up
approach towards opportunities and have not taken a sectoral focus on lending.
ô€‚„ Asset Quality‐ Not seeing much stress as of now: The bank is not seeing any
large concerns on asset quality even at 5-6% GDP growth and also the
restructuring pipeline continues to remain slim. The bank pointed out that
delinquency should not exceed 2008 levels but put a caveat that in 2008 the
economic down cycle was very short.
ô€‚„ Margins‐ Expected to improve: Yes bank pointed out positive impact on margin
from increasing proportion of CASA, lower cost of wholesale funds as PSU have
cut down on bulk deposits. Also with the rate cycle expected to ease, Yes bank
will be a beneficiary of wholesale rates coming off.
􀂄 Trade off between growth and Opex efficiency: In spite of slowing growth, Yes
intends to continue to build its branch network to 800 by FY15. Management
believes that ~150-180 branches added over last 1.5 yrs will improve in
efficiency and aid improvement in operating efficiency even as new additions
add to the branch strain. Cost income have moved up to 38% from 35% last yr
and management is comfortable with ~40-42% cot income as they get more
retail both on liabilities and assets.

IndusInd Bank::Prabhudas Lilladher, Banks/Financials conference


􀂄 Growth Outlook: Management seemed less cautious than Kotak bank and
expects to grow ~25-30% in FY13. Management is still seeing opportunities in
building up a 2nd hand vehicle, car and LAP business. IIB has stayed away from
mortgages given low yields but is increasing focus on LAP and expects to build a
significant book though competition is increasing in the LAP space.
ô€‚„ Margins‐ Worst behind us: Like most retail banks, IIB believes that worst in
terms of margins is behind and easing rates should aid in improving margins. IIB
has seen its NIMs come off for 5 qtrs now and lower funding costs will aid ROAs
going forward.
􀂄 Fee income traction to continue: Fee income/assets for IIB has already reached
industry best levels of 2% but management expects the growth to still continue.
They believe on the corporate side, FX and IB business still have significant room
for growth and outstrip B/S growth. On the retail side, increasing distribution
will add to cross sell opportunities which has been limited.
􀂄 Asset quality sanguine: Falling CV rentals have been our concern echoed by
Kotak/HDFCB but IIB is not seeing any material stress in their CV portfolio
currently though diesel price hike can be a risk to this portfolio. Corporate book
is working capital linked and with no Infra exposure, management expects
strong trend to continue. Overall IIB continues to guide 60-70bps of credit costs
v/s our 75-80bps credit cost assumption.

HDFC ::Prabhudas Lilladher, Banks/Financials conference


􀂄 Growth outlook Sanguine: HDFC maintained its growth guidance of ~20% with
ex-Mumbai portfolio seeing robust growth in individual segments. Rate
differentials with SBI is very limited at the moment to impact volumes for HDFC
ltd. Management has not seen any increase in pre-payment rates due to the
abolition of pre-payment charges and believes operational hassles/charges in
switching to a new financier will prevent their dual rate customers to switch
over to SBI.
􀂄 Margins stable: Margins continue to remain stable for HDFC and lower
wholesale rates are further aiding margins as pricing environment is getting
competitive.
ô€‚„ Re‐iterated safe nature of non‐individual loan portfolio: HDFC re-emphasised
that non-individual portfolio risk profile to be low with only 13%
builder/construction finance and rest ~20% constituted by rental discounting
and corporate construction loans. Even in the builder portfolio, HDFC
emphasised they lend only at SPV level for construction with significant LTV
comfort.
􀂄 Accounting: Company will declare IFRS related accounts from Sep-12 and this
should help address investor concerns on some aggressive accounting followed
by HDFC Ltd. Also, HDFC in its recent presentation have clarified on various
consolidated accounts as well adjusting for the interest on ZCBs.

Shriram Transport Finance ::Prabhudas Lilladher, Banks/Financials conference


􀂄 Growth outook remains tepid: SHTF is comfortable with 12-15% of growth and
continues to maintain LTVs at ~65% and does not want to compromise on
quality for growth. SHTF also noted they have restricted the growth on
construction equipment business as well. SHTF was positive on rural centres
where they have increased presence through small centres which could be
converted to branches in line with the increase in business. As of now ~20-30%
of transactions are being sourced through its Automalls.
􀂄 Margins: Due to competition in new CV business, hence large part of the growth
will have to be driven by higher margin old CVs. Margins have come off in FY12
by ~30bps to ~7.5% and they expect margins to stay in the 7.3-7.7% range.
ô€‚„ Asset quality‐ Not as cautious as peers: SHTF has recognised all mining related
assets and does not expect any negative surprise. Management re-iterated that
only ~20% of their exposure is in industrial transportation and other ~80% is
linked to transportation of essentials and does not expect material deterioration
in asset quality. With overall freight availability coming off, impending diesel
price hike and negative feedback on peers like HDFC/KMB we remain cautious
on the CV cycle.
􀂄 Accessing regulations: (1) Final securitisation guidelines warrant moving the off
b/s sheet book from direct assignment to PTC route. Though management
believes that impact will be limited, actual implementation will be tested only in
2H which is a seasonally qtr for securitisations. (2) On the 90 v/s 180 day NPA
recognition, management believes that transition time will be large (3-4 yrs) and
feedback from RBI also suggested that the implementation will happen in a nondisruptive
manner

20 Sept: Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)


Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
    The benchmark index Nifty traded in an extremely narrow range throughout the day, snapping the nine session winning streak, ahead of the mid-week holiday. A small 'doji' candlestick pattern has formed on the daily chart that signals a pause after a large rally. Volumes were relatively lower as compared to previous session, but the breadth was strongly in favor of advances indicating the strong price action in the broader markets. After facing supply at the 5650 mark, Nifty seems to have got into a consolidation phase on the back of overbought momentum oscillators that could continue for a while before the rally resumes for higher targets of 5750. Immediate supports are pegged at 5570 / 5500 and one should look to buy on dips to supports.

    Trend among the sectoral indices was mixed with gains coming from Cap Goods (+0.90%), Power (+0.88%) and Banking (+0.69%) sectors. The prominent losing sectors of the day were Oil & Gas (-1.13%), IT (-0.54%) and Healthcare (-0.22%). For the second day in a row, the broader markets have managed to outperform the frontline index with gains of 0.88% for the Mid-cap index and 0.73% for the Small-cap index.

    Bullish Setups: INFO, POWF, GAIL, HUVR, BHEL, SHRS, ADSEZ
    Bearish Setups: UTCEM, CAIR, STER

Stocks in News :Edelweiss 20 Sept


 Stocks in News
    Tata Steel gets high-speed rail order in France (BS)
    Tata Motors bags INR 2.25bn order from SVLL (BS)

20 Sept: Morning News (click on link to read article) : IFCI Financial Services Limited


Morning News (click on link to read article)
Economic Times

Business Standard

Business Line

Mint

Financial Express

Financial Chronicle

(Click on link to view article)
Thanks and Regards
IFIN: IFCI Financial Services Limited