24 August 2012

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) : 24 Aug: Edelweiss


Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
    The penultimate session of the week settled absolutely flat but not before some strong intraday activity. Nifty tested a higher high of 5448 in the first half and went into profit talking mode in the second half, dropping ~54 points from the high and briefly breaking below the 5400 mark. However, buying emerged at the 5400 mark to take it back above the safe zone, resulting in formation of a ‘long-legged doji’ candlestick pattern on the daily chart reflecting indecision. Now  such a pattern suggests a pause within a trend and a possible consolidation  before the rally resumes. Hourly momentum has rolled bearish, whereas the daily momentum has turned sideways and lackluster. Market internals indicate a higher turnover and an adverse breadth, with an A/D ratio of 1:1.2. There was a minor uptick seen in volatility with India VIX trading at 16.12 from 16 levels in the previous day. Nifty has strong support at the multiple swing highs point of 5345 which is expected to keep the trend intact and possibly be the lower band of the trading range. On the weekly charts, Nifty needs to close above 5366 to maintain its fourth consecutive positive trend. For the coming session we expect Nifty to trade between 5435 and 5345.

    It was once again a mixed session in terms of sectoral performances where the defensives attracted buying interest whereas the high beta witnessed selling pressure. The top gaining sectors were IT (+1.80%), FMCG (+0.88%) and Healthcare (+0.51%); and amongst the top losing sectors were Oil & Gas (-1.05%), Autos (-0.83%) and Cap Goods (-0.76%). Mid-cap and Small-cap indices continue to lad their frontline counterpart with marginal losses of -0.08% and -0.12% respectively.

    Bullish Setups: INFO, ACC, TCS, GAIL, CNXBANK, TTMT, CAIR, HUVR
    Bearish Setups: IDEA, HDIL, HNDL

Stocks in News : 24 Aug: Edelweiss


 Stocks in News
    R-power, China’s Datang corp form JV for ops, maintenance services (ET)
    Coal Ministry asks Coal India to approve model FSA quickly (ET)
    Vedanta seeks investors’ nod to raise offer price (ET)
    JSPL raises stake in Gujarat NRE’s Aussie arm (ET)
    Britannia sues GSK over trademark violations (ET)
    DLF plans INR 20-bn mega mall in Gurgaon (ET)
    Essar Shipping raise over INR 25-bn for expansion (ET)
    IDBI bank raises INR 11-bn from Singapore bond market (ET)
    GVK’s $10 bn Oz project cleared with riders (DNA)
    S’pore trust IPO may fetch Fortis up to $400 m (DNA)
    Cabinet defers decision on land acquisition Bill (DNA)
    Videocon finds more oil and gas reserves (MINT)
    Tata Steel, L&T pledge stake in JV (MINT)
    ABG-PSA to decide on JNPT contract (BS)
    ONGC’s plan to hive off CBM assets to face delay (BS)
    Aban Offshore to raise $400 mn (BS)
    Glenmark wins case against US’ Napo Pharma (BS)
    Tata Steel in talks to raise $5 bn to fund expansion (BS)

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 24-Aug-2012

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 24-Aug-2012 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES525771403.11470301256.3269314817808.06146.80
INDEX OPTIONS50085613350.4347741812764.40198756053477.32586.03
STOCK FUTURES882732316.601106882888.3599104426545.81-571.75
STOCK OPTIONS378201042.43424781161.65867882413.61-119.21
      Total41.86

 

-- 

FII & DII trading activity across NSE and BSE 24-08-2012


Buy
SellNet
ValueValueValue
FII2068.491842.43
226.06
DII806.331163.01
-356.68

 


-- 

NSE, Bulk deals, 24-Aug-2012

DateSymbolSecurity NameClient NameBuy / SellQuantity TradedTrade Price /
Wght. Avg.
Price
Remarks
24-Aug-2012ARSSINFRAARSS Infra Proj. LtdARUN KUMAR BERASELL85,00037.17-
24-Aug-2012HGSHinduja Global Sols LtdCREDO INDIA THEMATIC FUND LIMITEDBUY2,04,147296.90-
24-Aug-2012HGSHinduja Global Sols LtdINVEST INDIA MAURITIUS LIMITEDSELL2,04,147296.90-
24-Aug-2012HINDUJAVENHinduja Ventures LimitedCREDO INDIA THEMATIC FUND LIMITEDBUY2,21,000365.60-
24-Aug-2012HINDUJAVENHinduja Ventures LimitedINVEST INDIA MAURITIUS LIMITEDSELL2,21,000365.60-
24-Aug-2012IFCIIFCI Ltd.ADROIT SHARE & STOCK BROKER PVT. LTD.BUY49,07,80630.22-
24-Aug-2012IFCIIFCI Ltd.ADROIT SHARE & STOCK BROKER PVT. LTD.SELL48,75,80630.44-
24-Aug-2012IFCIIFCI Ltd.GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTDBUY64,66,66830.30-
24-Aug-2012IFCIIFCI Ltd.GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTDSELL64,66,66830.30-
24-Aug-2012IFCIIFCI Ltd.THE ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND N.V.BUY8,00031.70-
24-Aug-2012IFCIIFCI Ltd.THE ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND N.V.SELL81,19,41030.06-
24-Aug-2012KFAKingfisher Airlines Ltd.TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.BUY44,83,2589.46-
24-Aug-2012KFAKingfisher Airlines Ltd.TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.SELL45,14,2489.46-
24-Aug-2012MADRASCEMMadras Cements Ltd.PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITEDSELL13,75,000187.64-
24-Aug-2012RAJTVRaj Television Network LiSHANMUGASUNDARAM SUBRAMANIANSELL1,31,411200.00-
24-Aug-2012SKUMARSYNFS. Kumars Nationwide LtdJ P M S L A/c Copthall Mauritius Investment LtdBUY27,25,00021.53-
24-Aug-2012SKUMARSYNFS. Kumars Nationwide LtdTRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.BUY16,18,18021.75-
24-Aug-2012SKUMARSYNFS. Kumars Nationwide LtdTRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.SELL16,42,65421.76-
24-Aug-2012VADILALINDVadilal Industries LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY47,585216.90-
24-Aug-2012VADILALINDVadilal Industries LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL47,746217.51-
24-Aug-2012VENUSREMVenus Remedies LimitedCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY88,544244.98-
24-Aug-2012VENUSREMVenus Remedies LimitedCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL88,544244.62-
24-Aug-2012WABAGVA Tech Wabag LtdFORTIS BANQUE LUXEMBOURG SA A/C FORTIS L FUNDBUY2,00,000480.00-
24-Aug-2012WABAGVA Tech Wabag LtdTREE LINE ASIA MASTER FUND (SINGAPORE) PTE LIMITEDSELL4,14,800480.01-

Diesel subsidy: Government set to lose over Rs 100k crore as wasteful consumption grows in ET

The Government is set to lose over Rs 100k crore on diesel subsidies alone in the current fiscal, as the country's diesel consumption gallops and the fuel stays at substantial discount to its cost. A substantial part of these growing subsidies are getting diverted to areas for which they are not intended. This increases the risk of a bad surprise on the country's fiscal deficit as the year progresses. India consumed 10.9 per cent more diesel during the Apr-July '12 period compared to year ago, according to the statistics maintained by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). This was substantially higher than the 6.2 per cent growth in overall petroleum consumption during the same period underlining the 'dieselisation' of the economy. Even FY'12 had displayed a similar trend with diesel consumption growing faster than other petroleum products. There is a clear case of diesel replacing other fuels - petrol, CNG and LPG in case of automobiles and fuel oil in industrial usage. Most of this is unintended and there is no logic for private car owners to enjoy the subsidy benefits. Although the government tries to keep diesel prices artificially low, there is no mechanism to ensure the benefits go to the desired purposes. "A good portion of the diesel subsidy is used by sectors where it is not intended to be spent. Nearly Rs 8000 crore subsidy is consumed by power generating sets in malls and big buildings, while around Rs 3000 crore of subsidy is spent in powering telecom towers," said Debasish Mishra, Senior Director, Deloitte India. According to the government the first round of field survey of All India Study on Sectoral Demand of diesel and petrol revealed that nearly 16 per cent of diesel is consumed by passenger vehicles, 4.6 per cent by gensets and 2 per cent by mobile towers. This is wastage of an estimated Rs 23,000 crore of subsidy for full FY13. However, PPAC maintains its study will take one year to finish, when it will be able to put definite numbers to the consumption pattern.

BSE, Bulk deals, 24/8/2012

This data was last updated on Friday, August 24, 2012  5:38:37 PM
Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
24/8/20125121618K Miles SoftwareNISHIL SURENDRABHAI MARFATIAS8594622.90
24/8/2012509011CHISELSOOSAIAPPU TAMILARASIB100007.04
24/8/2012512361Cupid TradesAJMERA ASSOCIATES PVT LTDB5000212.11
24/8/2012512361Cupid TradesAJMERA ASSOCIATES PVT LTDS5000212.10
24/8/2012526598Gujarat Narm FlyINVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES LTD.B7500042.20
24/8/2012526598Gujarat Narm FlyVELUBEN VELJI GADAS7500042.20
24/8/2012532859Hinduja GlobCREDO INDIA THEMATIC FUND LIMITEDB200000296.90
24/8/2012532859Hinduja GlobINVEST INDIA MAURITIUS LTDS200000296.90
24/8/2012500189Hinduja VentCREDO INDIA THEMATIC FUND LIMITEDB200000365.50
24/8/2012500189Hinduja VentINVEST INDIA MAURITIUS LTDS200000365.50
24/8/2012530315Hindustan Tin-$CSA HOLDINGS PVT LTDB25000059.70
24/8/2012530315Hindustan Tin-$SAFE ENTERPRISESS25000059.70
24/8/2012532662HT MediaRELIANCE MUTUAL FUND AC RELIANCE GROWTH FUNDB150000087.00
24/8/2012511682IFL PromotersBHAGWAN SAHAI SHARMAB900006.64
24/8/2012511682IFL PromotersADVANCE INDIA SHARES AND SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITEDS900006.64
24/8/2012514312Jaihind SynMUKESH OMPRAKASH LADHAB9225012.96
24/8/2012514312Jaihind SynAPEKSHA SURESH KANABARS3425013.01
24/8/2012514312Jaihind SynVALUE PLUS SHARES N SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITEDS5000012.94
24/8/2012533644M and B SwitchgearsUPSURGE INVESTMENT AND FINANCE LTDS100000141.53
24/8/2012500260Madras CementsPAM-A/C PLATINUM ASIA FUNDS1530000187.64
24/8/2012511734Pasupati FinPRIYA SHRIVASTAVAB4900014.24
24/8/2012511734Pasupati FinSULABH IMPEX LIMITEDS10000014.24
24/8/2012531855Prabhav IndsGUNJAN AMIT BHARGAVAS2395003.11
24/8/2012530111Raj PackagingMADANCHAND PRASANCHANDB2007022.44
24/8/2012532826Raj TelevisionEURO PLUS CAPITAL LIMITEDB74000200.48
24/8/2012532826Raj TelevisionSHANMUGASUNDARAM SUBRAMANIANS68589199.76
24/8/2012515127Rammaica IndiaANSH MERCHANDISE PRIVATE LIMITEDS4970019.50
24/8/2012515127Rammaica IndiaTIEN TRADING PRIVATE LIMITEDS8400019.50
24/8/2012534618Sangam AdvisorsDEAR PROJECTS PRIVATE LIMITEDB22800022.17
24/8/2012534618Sangam AdvisorsSTAR FINCAP PRIVATE LIMITEDS4800022.20
24/8/2012534618Sangam AdvisorsDINESH KUMAR CHOUDHARYS4200022.10
24/8/2012534618Sangam AdvisorsSONAL B CHITRODAS12000022.20
24/8/2012507894Schablona IndiaVISHNUHARI MERCHANTS PRIVATE LIMITEDS2678222.96
24/8/2012511433SDFC FinanceHEMINKUMAR BIMALKUMAR NAVADIAS5259421.14
24/8/2012511433SDFC FinancePATEL RAMJIBHAI PURSHOTTAMBHAI HUFS5000021.00
24/8/2012590128Shree Tulsi OnlineJAROLI VINCOM PVT LTDB139900249.26
24/8/2012513307Synthiko FoilsSAURAVB580511.28
24/8/2012513307Synthiko FoilsNEELIMA KASLIWALS500011.30
24/8/2012519156Vadilal Inds-$CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB47746217.28
24/8/2012519156Vadilal Inds-$CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS47363216.69
24/8/2012526953Venus RemediesCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB88471244.38
24/8/2012526953Venus RemediesCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS88548244.94
24/8/2012519307Vikas WSPBAJRANG DASS JINDALB125000072.84
* B - Buy, S - Sell
** = Weighted Average Trade Price / Trade Price

BUY Jyoti Structures: Target Price `59 :Angel Broking


Jyoti Structures (Jyoti)’s revenues for 1QFY2013 came in line with our expectations
at `654cr, up 2.5% yoy. However the company disappointed on the margins
front; the EBITDA came in at `64cr, 5.3% lower than our expectation. Jyoti’s
revenue growth continued to be dismal, consistent with its performance over the
past few quarters. The EBITDA margin contracted by 120bps on account of the
tough competition prevalent in the sector and stood at 9.8% for the quarter. We
expect the company to continue to operate at these levels over the coming
quarters. The interest cost was lower than expected and it declined by 16% qoq.
However the company’s interest coverage multiple remained under stress,
declining from 2.6x in 1QFY2012 to 1.9x presently. The other income was also
lower than expected leading to a dismal bottom-line. The PAT came in at `17cr,
declining 33.7% yoy and 18.8% below our expectations. On the back of cheap
valuations we maintain our Buy rating on the stock.

Reliance Power: 1QFY13 earnings marginally below forecast: Nomura research,


1QFY13 normalized EBITDA, PAT a tad below our forecast
At Rs2.27bn, Reliance Power’s (RPWR’s) 1QFY13 normalized net profit
was ~3% below our forecast (marginally above consensus); reported
PAT was higher at Rs2.4bn on the back of prior period adjustments.
RPWR’s top line surprised on the back of third-party power purchases
and sale (to meet PPA supply commitment from its Butibori facility), but
normalized EBITDA (at Rs3.5bn) was 3% below our/consensus forecast
despite sharply lower ‘other opex’. Treasury gains surprised yet again
(Rs1.16bn vs our forecast of Rs0.7bn), but were offset by higher-thanexpected
depreciation and interest outgo

‘Markets often rebound ahead of earnings’: Naval Bir Kumar, Executive Vice-Chairman of IDFC Mutual Fund. in Business Line,


It is best to invest in equities when prospects look uncertain. That is when you get a good price, says Naval Bir Kumar, Executive Vice-Chairman of IDFC Mutual Fund. He also thinks this is a good time for you to increase investments in long-term debt funds.
Equity markets in the last five years have delivered only a single-digit return. It has also become harder to take a call on prospects for many sectors because of policy risks and so on. Must investors raise debt allocations?
It is difficult to recommend a blanket asset allocation for everyone. As I see it, there are two periods when one can invest in equities. One is where there is an earnings risk and it is difficult to predict profits or growth rates of companies. The other kind of phase is when there is strong growth but there is price risk and valuations are high.
If you look back at the past trends in markets, investors who took on earnings risks would have made good money compared with the ones that took on price risk.
We cannot predict how long earnings risk will remain in the market. But if you look back, years such as 2003-04 depicted earnings risk, periods such as 1999-2000 showed price risk. Those who invested in the former periods made high returns.
Yes, during periods of earnings risk people do not generally like to invest. The problem is that, markets often rebound ahead of earnings and the rebound can happen very quickly. So as long as you believe that further destruction in prices is unlikely to happen, you must allocate more to equities.