23 August 2012

Tata Steel- Leverage cuts both ways ::Macquarie Research,


Tata Steel
Leverage cuts both ways
Event
 Lower sales volume hits earnings: As was well expected given the
slowdown in sales volume, Tata Steel Q1 earnings missed expectations. We
have cut our earnings estimates for FY13 and FY14 by 23% and 13%,
respectively, to build in lower sales volume for both Europe and India. We cut
our target price to Rs306 based on 7x PER (earlier Rs404) and downgrade
to Underperform from Neutral.

GMR Infrastructure -Impact of DIAL tariff hike to be visible from Q2 ::religare research,

GMRI’s Q1 PAT came in lower than our estimates as the full impact of a tariff hike at Delhi Airport (DIAL) was not realised during the quarter. This shortfall (in Q1FY13) will be made up for in the next control period (FY14‒FY19) and doesn’t impact our valuations for GMRI. Majority of the tariff hike impact will be visible in Q2FY13 numbers, This deferral in revenue booking leads us to cut our FY13 revenue/EPS estimates zby 2%/14%. Maintain BUY with a March’13 TP of Rs 32.

Category-Wise Turnover 23-Aug-12


Trade DateCategoryBuy Value in Rs.CroresSell Value in Rs.Crores
23-Aug-12Mutual Funds78.5625.6052.96
23-Aug-12Proprietory Trades62035.6662602.15-566.49
23-Aug-12Others46681.6546561.73119.92
Notes :
1.  Buy / Sell value at the end of day:
     Options Value (Buy/Sell) = Strike price * Qty
     Futures Value (Buy/Sell) = Traded Price * Qty
2. Others exclude FIIs, Mutual Funds, Proprietory Trades

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 23-Aug-2012

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 23-Aug-2012 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES523071398.44522941402.1968459917678.26-3.75
INDEX OPTIONS54155814516.3252537114048.83196368053123.50467.49
STOCK FUTURES1219053219.781222823297.1997304726289.58-77.41
STOCK OPTIONS355951001.1735164993.89867662424.007.28
      Total393.62

 


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BSE, Bulk deals, 23/8/2012

Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
23/8/2012524412Aarey DrugsDEEPIKA JASMIN SHAHB8123835.71
23/8/2012524412Aarey DrugsDEEPIKA JASMIN SHAHS7884035.35
23/8/2012514332Anuvin IndsPRIYAL CHETAN KOTHARIS5000010.58
23/8/2012590033APW PresidentAPW ELECTRONICS GROUP LIMITEDS35000206.69
23/8/2012524760Arvind Intl-$HARJEET SINGHB10000015.50
23/8/2012503722Banswara Syn-$SUCHITA BHANDARIB10075968.87
23/8/2012503722Banswara Syn-$PINKY EXHIBITORS PRIVATE LIMITEDS9193468.91
23/8/2012524388Crazy InfotechM VANJIAPPANB3541860.22
23/8/2012530337Exelon InfraSHIMLA A MAHESHWARIB843386.09
23/8/2012530337Exelon InfraHARSHA JAINS1000006.10
23/8/2012532022Filatex FashLAXMIPAT DUDHERIA HUFB2200006.97
23/8/2012532022Filatex FashPRABHAT SETHIAS2145006.97
23/8/2012526598Gujarat Narm FlySIYA INVESTMENTSB6250040.30
23/8/2012526598Gujarat Narm FlyINVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES LTD.B12530040.30
23/8/2012526598Gujarat Narm FlyGOMTIBEN THAKARSHI GADAS6000040.30
23/8/2012526598Gujarat Narm FlyNEHA PRAVIN GADAS5000040.30
23/8/2012526598Gujarat Narm FlyMANISHA JAYANTILAL GADAS5000040.30
23/8/2012519552Heritage FoodsCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB78147275.36
23/8/2012519552Heritage FoodsCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDS78147276.20
23/8/2012531129Inani MarblesKETAN RAJENDRA ACHARYAB20000305.00
23/8/2012531129Inani MarblesRAJARAM RAMESH PANDITB25436314.52
23/8/2012531129Inani MarblesRAJARAM RAMESH PANDITS25988305.25
23/8/2012532240India NipponHARITA BALAJI PVT LTDB82391173.00
23/8/2012532240India NipponHARITA SHEELA PRIVATE LIMITEDB105000173.00
23/8/2012532240India NipponVISARIA SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITEDS188000173.04
23/8/2012515127Rammaica IndiaSARWAN KUMAR DEVIDUTTB1650018.58
23/8/2012511585Regency TrustANISH VINODCHANDRA SHAHB16200020.75
23/8/2012511585Regency TrustSURESHBHAI KANTILAL THAKKARS16200020.75
23/8/2012533268Sea TV NetworkSUPARSHVANATH STK & SER P. LTDS6010060.19
23/8/2012531695SHREYCHEMTUSHAR HARIBHAI MUNDIYAB3650067.45
23/8/2012530821SSPDL-$RAMBABU RAVIS7000014.45
23/8/2012513307Synthiko FoilsNEELIMA KASLIWALS450011.66
23/8/2012519307Vikas WSPAVENTIS BIOFEEDS PRIVATE LIMITEDB69929174.47
23/8/2012534567VKS ProjectsARIHANT ADVERTISING PVT LTDB30000061.50
23/8/2012534567VKS ProjectsMAHALAXMI CRESEC PRIVATE LIMITEDS30000061.50
* B - Buy, S - Sell
** = Weighted Average Trade Price / Trade Price

NSE, Bulk deals, 23-Aug-2012

DateSymbolSecurity NameClient NameBuy / SellQuantity TradedTrade Price /
Wght. Avg.
Price
Remarks
23-Aug-2012ELDERPHARMElder Pharma LtdM.PRASAD & CO LTDBUY1,34,083336.72-
23-Aug-2012ELDERPHARMElder Pharma LtdM.PRASAD & CO LTDSELL12,083335.00-
23-Aug-2012HERITGFOODHeritage Foods (I) Ltd.CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY78,245275.91-
23-Aug-2012HERITGFOODHeritage Foods (I) Ltd.CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL78,245275.36-
23-Aug-2012KFAKingfisher Airlines Ltd.TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.BUY51,16,7729.86-
23-Aug-2012KFAKingfisher Airlines Ltd.TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.SELL50,70,7729.87-
23-Aug-2012OPTOCIRCUIOpto Circuits (India) LimHSBC GLOBAL INVESTMENT FUNDS A/C HSBC GLOBAL INVESTMENT FUNBUY12,62,502120.86-
23-Aug-2012OPTOCIRCUIOpto Circuits (India) LimJF INDIA FUND A/C JF INDIA FUNDSELL15,88,429123.80-
23-Aug-2012VKSPLVKS Projects LimitedARIHANT ADVERTISING PVT. LTD.BUY3,00,00061.50-
23-Aug-2012VKSPLVKS Projects LimitedNEW DELHI CREDITS PVT LTDSELL3,00,00061.50-

FII & DII trading activity across NSE and BSE 23-08-2012

 BuySellNet
ValueValueValue
FII2473.722161.93
311.79
DII929.591090.69
-161.1

 


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DLF - Building a revival; company update; Buy: Edelweiss


DLF (DLFU IN, INR 214, Buy)
Our annual report analysis of DLF reveals FY12 was a stressed year for DLF with its operating cash (ex-land sales) at INR15.3bn insufficient to service interest payments of INR30bn. DLF has since stepped up its asset monetization drive to cut debt and ease the interest burden. On the other hand, the company has stepped up launches which will strengthen cash flows. Further, revenues now stand significantly derisked with the devco contributing 63% (of revenues) as against 85% in FY09 and the rentco (along with service and maintenance income) now accounting for 25% of revenues as against 8% in FY09. The stock will continue to be driven by asset sales and expected launch of Magnolias  Phase II. We maintain BUY/SP with NAV/TP of INR263.

Capital Goods Sector Update --Learning to live with uncertainty!!!: Prabhudas Lilladher,


Capital goods index has outperformed the broader index by ~5% over the last three
months. Government off-late has been making lot of positive noises which hasn’t
been backed by concrete action. RBI’s ability to act has been hindered by
government inaction on the fiscal front and high inflation, while government
perceives rate cut as a way to boost growth. Recent downgrade of GDP estimate for
FY13 and risk of rating downgrade has added to the uncertainty. So India Inc.
continues to live with an uncertain outlook albeit with a hope of revival for the time
being (as it has been for last several quarters). We might be closing in but it’s still
tough to call the bottom yet.

Mumbai Real Estate- Weakness in lease registrations sets in: Prabhudas Lilladher,


􀂄 Pre-festive season slackness seep into real estate registrations
􀂄 Sales registrations slipping below the 5000 mark for second consecutive month
􀂄 No near-term respite in the absence of a fiscal consolidation program
􀂄 Weakness in commercial real estate result in sharp decline in lease registrations

Bank Of Baroda :Downgrade to Reduce; TP cut to INR590: Nomura research,


Asset quality pain likely to continue

Action: Downgrading to Reduce, TP cut to INR590
We downgrade BOB to Reduce from Neutral, and cut our TP to INR590
from INR820, as we believe asset quality risks will continue to derail
BOB's earnings trajectory over the next several quarters. We are
increasing our delinquency forecast for FY13F to INR50.6bn from
INR41.7bn (FY12F loan delinquency: INR34.4bn) and expect loan loss
provisions to increase to 97bps from 72bps in FY12


Bat cautiously in retirement risk zone: Business Line,


If you are 50 or older and plan to retire at 60 or if you retired within the last 10 years, here is a question for you. How vulnerable is your investment portfolio to market declines? This question assumes relevance, given the high level of fluctuations in asset prices in the recent past, be it in real estate, gold or shares.
In this article, we discuss why you should be concerned whether your portfolio is vulnerable to price fluctuations when you are inside 10 years of either side of retirement, a period called the retirement risk zone.

Infosys -Court ruling in favour of Infosys in Jack Palmer case: Prabhudas Lilladher,


Albama Court has given verdict in favor of Infosys. We see this is as a positive step
corroborating Infosys stading of no wrong-doing. The ruling include costs against
Palmer and didn’t condone Infosys for any conduct. We see the verdict to alleviate
one of the biggest concern on the stock performance. We expect 1‐3% uptick in the
stock price in today’s trading session.

‘Equity is a mean reverting instrument’: Nitin Jain Head of Retail Capital Market, Edelweiss Securities in Business Line,


Valuations in the Indian context have become reasonably cheap but inflation is a concern.
With inflation not subsiding and policy paralysis continuing, Business Line caught up with Nitin Jain – Head of Retail Capital Market, Edelweiss Securities Ltd, to find out the growth prospects of the India equity. We also try getting more clarity on retail participation in the market and quant trading for investment purposes.

Tata Motors :JLR vols up 41% in Jul-12; slightly below est: Nomura research,


JLR volumes up 41% yoy in July-12; slightly below estimates
Global wholesales of Jaguar Land Rover in July-12 were at 26,921
vehicles, higher by 41% yoy. This is slightly below our estimate of 28,600
units and consensus expectations of around 27,800 units. Volumes ex-
Evoque sales have declined by 4% yoy. Evoque volumes were around
8,500 units. Jaguar sales for the month were 4,064 nos., down 7% yoy,
while Land Rover sales were 22,857 nos., higher by 41% yoy. We
believe that there could be minor negative reaction to stock price on
these numbers.

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation -Lower DD&A costs drive result: Prabhudas Lilladher,


ONGC’s Q1FY13 EBITDA increased 18.9% YoY but down ~4% QoQ to Rs111.3bn,
lower than our estimates (PLe Rs117.5bn), on the back of flat crude oil (-1% QoQ)
and gas production (+1% QoQ) along with the impact of higher cess (+77% YoY). Net
realization on own crude for the quarter stood at US$46.6/bbl. As per our
understanding government has arrived ONGC’s standalone net realization at 46.62/
bbl is a result of a $56/ bbl discount on ONGC’s standalone production (incl.
condensates). Lower than expected DD&A costs at Rs31.8bn (PLe Rs40.3bn) on
account of lower dry well write offs and lesser exploratory activity during the
quarter. Consequently, PAT stood at Rs60.78bn higher than our expectation of
Rs52.87bn. We maintain ‘Accumulate’ on the stock.

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) - Aug 23, 2012-EDEL


Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
    It seems difficult for the markets to move out of their lethargy, barring one day pop-up that raised hopes for the die-hard bulls. Nifty ended the day with a marginal loss of 0.15% after oscillating in 38 points range for the day. The final couple of hours saw some profit taking with minimum damage to the underlying structure. Momentum has slowed down on the hourly charts, but maintains its bullish bias inline with the bullish setups of daily oscillators. Volumes were anemic, and the breadth ended neutral. The acceleration in momentum after clearing the 5400 mark is clearly lacking, suggesting an extension of the range-trading activity. We maintain status-quo on our upside targets of 5650 / 5750, as well as the downside pivot of 5340.

    There isn't much to take away from the sectoral moves for the session as it was a broadly mixed one. Among the gainers were shares from Healthcare (+0.38), Auto (+0.24%) and IT (+0.14%) indices; whereas selling was witnessed in Realty (-0.97%), Power (-0.82%) and Cap Goods (-0.41%) indexes. Broader market Mid-cap and Small-cap indices traded toe-to-toe with the frontline benchmark losing 0.20% each.

    Bullish Setups: INFO, RIL, ACC, PWGR, GAIL, CNXBANK, TTMT
    Bearish Setups: IDEA, BHARTI, HDIL

Stocks in News - Aug 23, 2012-EDEL


Stocks in News
    FM nod for 49% FDI in Insurance, Pension (ET)
    Vedanta may offer 25% more for HZL, Balco stake (ET)
    SC defers Novartis’ Glivec hearing till Sept 11 (ET)
    WPP may sue NDTV for defamation (ET)
    L&T may raise up to INR 32-bn (ET)
    Ranbaxy to withdraw 27 applications filed in US (ET)
    Govt eases overseas borrowing norms to push fund flows (ET)
    Tata Steel seeks $ 4.7-b in loans in new mill (ET)
    Cairn bets big on Gas finds in Rajasthan (ET)
    CRH to buy 51% in Jaypee’s Gujarat units for INR 21-bn (BS)
    Cox & Kings UK arm raises INR 7.5-bn from Citi Venture Capital (BS)
    Everonn education buys Bharti firm (BS)
    Kesoram Industries to raise INR 5-bn (MINT)

Sales Traders Commentary- Aug 23, 2012-EDEL


Sales Traders Commentary
    Indian equity markets closed marginally lower on Wednesday amid weak Asian and European markets. Realty, power, tech and capital goods stocks were under pressure.
    The Sensex closed at 17846, down 38 points, whereas the Nifty slipped 8 points to end the day at 5413.
    Major gainers were Dr Reddy's Laboratories (1.05%), Coal India (0.94%), Infosys (0.93%), Hero Motocorp (0.85%), Bajaj Auto (0.79%), and Tata Motors (0.71%).
    Major losers were Bharti Airtel (3.85%), NTPC (1.32%), Sterlite Industries (India) (1.32%), Tata Power Company (1.10%), Housing Development Finance Corporation (0.87%), and Reliance Industries (0.77%)
    The HC index was up 0.38%. Major gainers were Aurobindo Pharma (2.29%), Cadila Healthcare (1.52%), Dr Reddy'S Laboratories (1.05%), Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (0.64%) and Cipla (0.1%).
    The Realty index was down 0.97%. Major losers were Housing Development and Infrastructure (3.75%), D B Realty (1.84%), Indiabulls Real Estate (1.76%), Anant Raj Industries (1.28%) and D L F (0.56%).
    The Power index slipped by 0.82%. Major losers were JSW Energy (2.21%), G M R Infrastructure (1.46%), A B B (0.79%), Reliance Infrastructure (0.65%) and Adani Power (0.59%).
    The TECk index was down 0.42%. Major losers were Reliance MediaWorks (4.21%), Bharti Airtel (3.85%), Oracle Financial Services Software (2.38%), Dish TV India (1.47%) and Idea Cellular (0.53%).
    Major losers in the mid – cap space were Aban Offshore (3.25%), Amara Raja Batteries (2.7%), Alok Industries (1.89%), Allcargo Logistics (1.58%) and CORE Education and Technologies (1.45%).
    Major losers among small – caps were Reliance MediaWorks (4.21%), Aanjaneya Lifecare (2.19%), Action Construction Equipment (1.65%), A2Z Maintenance & Engineering Services (0.57%) and Trident (0.56%).
    Globally, Asia ended on a lower note while Europe indices were trading in the red.

Punjab National Bank :Downgrade to Reduce and TP cut to INR680 Impaired book still a risk: Nomura research,


Action: Downgrade to Reduce and cut TP to INR680
We downgrade PNB to Reduce from our earlier Neutral rating and cut our
TP to INR680 as we believe loan delinquency will continue to increase for
PNB over the next few quarters. The high proportion of restructured loans
on which the delinquency ratio is currently running at 18% is an added
risk. We are factoring in loan delinquencies of INR98.3bn for FY13F,
compared with INR72.9bn earlier.

Coal India- Upbeat by better FSA realisations and lower employee cost= Prabhudas Lilladher,


Coal India (CIL) reported Q1FY13 earnings marginally below our expectation on
account of lower-than-expected realisations in E-auction. However, expansion in FSA
realisations (would be further boosted by increase in WCL prices) and low employee
cost in the quarter reinforces our positive outlook for earnings in coming quarters.
This would more than offset the weakness in E-auction, partially driven by seasonal
fall in grades. We maintain our ‘BUY’ rating with TP of Rs390, 12.5x FY13E core EPS.

Prefer companies with stable earnings, even if expensive: Anoop Bhaskar, Head - Equity, UTI Mutual Fund in Business Line,


Over a period, increase the beta in your portfolio by having companies where the valuations are quite compelling but the earnings could be at risk. — ANOOP BHASKAR, HEAD - EQUITY, UTI MUTUAL FUND
“Investors are willing to pile on to stocks that have stability in earnings right now, while they are shunning those with weak operating numbers”, says Anoop Bhaskar, Head - Equity, UTI Mutual Fund. He manages the UTI Equity, UTI Opportunities and UTI Master Value funds.
Excerpts from a telephonic interaction:
What is your take on the June quarter earnings?
The first quarter numbers have neither been very encouraging nor discouraging. While we don’t collate numbers for the entire market, from what I gather, the profit growth is in high single digits and the revenue growth is about 18 per cent. This has come off from the 20-odd per cent in the earlier quarters.
But profits are a little difficult to correlate (with last year) as a change in rules in accounting for forex losses was made in December last year. So they don’t give the correct picture of what the profit growth could be at the PAT (profits after tax) level. Among the large caps, the results are better than what was expected. Mid- and small-caps have been struggling a bit on profitability .