Anand Rathi Monthly Presentation - June 2012- DEAD CROSS is formed in SENSEX but not in NIFTY yet…

DEAD CROSS is formed in SENSEX but not in NIFTY yet…

NIFTY

NIFTY (5115) has taken very strong support around 4770 and has rebounded strongly and now till 4750 is not breached on downside 5200-5350 on higher side possible. Now  200DMA 5067 plays very important role. Market would maintain 4800-5300 as range, mentioned in last month report.

SENSEX

SENSEX- (16862) has formed Dead Cross as per Dow Theory which is oldest theory of technical analysis which acts with lag impact. Dead Cross is 50DMA 16764 cutting 200DMA 16785 from above. Sensex has recovered from low of 15748 and rally can extend till 17500-17700 before this rally can fizzle out. Sensex from 1990 has corrected every 2 years 1990, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010 and now we are in 2012?

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 13-Jun-2012

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 13-Jun-2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	81215	2029.05	37597	952.49	396774	9954.92	1076.56
INDEX OPTIONS	609138	15374.64	618116	15637.01	1640041	41988.02	-262.37
STOCK FUTURES	42270	1074.29	45183	1124.61	933077	22834.29	-50.32
STOCK OPTIONS	46490	1248.36	46713	1256.12	49408	1289.62	-7.76
						Total	756.12

-- 

Stocks in News : 13 June: Edelweiss

 Stocks in News

RBI okays plan to use spectrum as collateral loan (ET)

Ashok Leyland to raise INR 7.50bn via Pvt Placement (ET)

Petronet LNG to raise $1bn debt to expand (ET)

Maruti to merge Suzuki powertrain with itself; Suzuki Motor’s stake in Maruti will increase to 56.21% after the deal (ET)

Nalco workers protest stalls sale of alumina to Vedanta Aluminium (ET)

Aussie firm drops NMDC from JV (MINT)

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) 13 June

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)

The bulls came back strongly in yesterday’s session after a round of sharp profit taking on Monday and carried the Nifty back above the 5100 mark. Tracking weak cues from global markets, Nifty opened on a softer note but started to recover higher and managed to build gains throughout the session to close near the high of the day. As a result it has formed a ‘bullish engulfing’ candlestick pattern on the daily chart that suggests further gains in the coming session.  Volumes continue to clock at an average rate and the market breadth was once again in favour of advances. Momentum oscillators are developing negative divergence on hourly chart i.e. price gain is not confirmed by the oscillators and the daily indicator (Stochastic) is trading in overbought zone suggesting that the index is vulnerable to sudden profit sales pressure. From the current levels we suggest taking a cautious stance as the upside on the index is limited to 5150 / 5180 and one can see a retracement down to 4990 / 4950 levels in the short-term. It is recommended to take profits on trading longs at higher levels.

Among the notable sectoral performances, with the exception of Healthcare index (-0.40%), all other indexes ended the day in the green. Gains were led by interest rate sensitive Realty (+2.01%), Banking (+1.90%) and Cap Goods (+1.84%). The broader markets continued to underperform their frontline benchmark with 0.62% gain for Mid-cap index and 0.28% gain for the Small-cap index.

Bullish Setups: CNXBANK, REC, HUVR, BPCL

Bearish Setups: DRRD, LICHF, INFO, HDFC, ACEM

  

Regards,

Edelweiss Research

BSE, Bulk deals, 13/6/2012

Deal Date	Scrip Code	Company	Client Name	Deal Type *	Quantity	Price **
13/6/2012	533163	Arss Infra Proj	IFCI LTD.	S	155371	51.27
13/6/2012	509026	Artheon Fin	SANJAY HANUMAN PRASAD MALOO	B	30000	60.90
13/6/2012	509026	Artheon Fin	COSCO VANIJYA PVT LTD	B	8000	62.40
13/6/2012	509026	Artheon Fin	LAXMI MERCANTILE PRIVATE LIMITED	S	31300	61.72
13/6/2012	509026	Artheon Fin	ASHISH SANTOSHKUMAR GANERIWAL	S	25800	61.48
13/6/2012	531346	Eastern Treads	SHAILESH SHAH SECURITIES LTD.	S	34300	10.46
13/6/2012	533400	Future Ventures	FUTURE CORPORATE RESOURCES LIMITED	B	10020000	8.50
13/6/2012	514312	Jaihind Syn	VINOD RAM	B	108500	13.15
13/6/2012	514312	Jaihind Syn	TARUNKUMAR GURUCHARAN BRAHMBHATT	S	74000	12.83
13/6/2012	506041	Mahesh Agri	YOGESH NARAYAN PARDESHI	B	4000	8.40
13/6/2012	506041	Mahesh Agri	BIPIN SHAMJI LALAN	B	5000	8.40
13/6/2012	531272	Nikki Global	VINAY KILLA	B	25000	128.25
13/6/2012	531272	Nikki Global	MADHU KILLA	B	25000	128.25
13/6/2012	517534	Nivyah Infra	ARCADIA SHARE & STOCK BROKERS PVT. LTD	S	147131	5.30
13/6/2012	505525	Parichay Invest	RAKESH PATEL	B	6000	165.45
13/6/2012	505525	Parichay Invest	BINAL J MODI	B	6650	165.13
13/6/2012	505525	Parichay Invest	SANJEEV BURMAN JHAVERI	S	7501	165.32
13/6/2012	505525	Parichay Invest	JHAVERI SANJEEV BURMAN	S	8565	164.75
13/6/2012	531207	Raymed Labs	RESURGENCE ADVISORY SERVICES	B	22600	26.76
13/6/2012	524540	Secunderabad Health	NASEEN TRADELINK PRIVATE LIMITED	S	250080	11.05
13/6/2012	531695	SHREYCHEM	PRAFULCHANDRA CHIMANLAL VORA	B	40000	55.25
13/6/2012	531695	SHREYCHEM	BHAVIK P VORA	B	40000	55.30
13/6/2012	531695	SHREYCHEM	RAMESHBHAI TEJABHAI MALA	S	36001	59.62
13/6/2012	531695	SHREYCHEM	ARSENAL FINSTOCK SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED	S	35000	55.39
13/6/2012	531695	SHREYCHEM	TUSHAR SHASHIKANT SHAH	S	50000	60.29
13/6/2012	513515	SR Inds	DINESH CHAND GARG(HUF)	B	91105	4.15
13/6/2012	513515	SR Inds	AVN STOCK AND SECURITIES BROKER PRIVATE LIMITED	S	92405	4.14
13/6/2012	517530	SURANATP	SUNIL JAIN	B	114000	16.50
13/6/2012	517530	SURANATP	ANIL JAIN	S	114000	16.50
13/6/2012	530867	Suryanagri Fin	ALOK FINANCE PVT. LTD.	B	17000	25.90
13/6/2012	530867	Suryanagri Fin	NIRAJ REALTORS & SHARES PVT. LTD.	B	17000	25.90
13/6/2012	530867	Suryanagri Fin	MANISHA SANJAY AGRAWAL	S	35000	26.90
13/6/2012	532311	Tutis Tech-$	SANTOSH MAHADEO JADHAV	B	95000	11.98
13/6/2012	532311	Tutis Tech-$	VIKRAMKUMAR KARANRAJ SAKARIA HUF	B	110000	12.09
13/6/2012	531874	Venus Power Ventures	VENKATESH VADDEPALLY	B	130277	24.02
* B - Buy, S - Sell
** = Weighted Average Trade Price / Trade Price

NSE, Bulk deals, 13-Jun-2012

Date	Symbol	Security Name	Client Name	Buy / Sell	Quantity Traded	Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price	Remarks
13-Jun-2012	3IINFOTECH	3i Infotech Limited	KOTAK MAHINDRA INTERNATIONAL LIMITED FCCB	SELL	19,00,000	10.01	-
13-Jun-2012	ARSSINFRA	ARSS Infra Proj. Ltd	IFCI LTD.	SELL	1,58,193	51.18	-
13-Jun-2012	DPTL	Dhunseri Petroc & Tea Ltd	PLENTY VALLEY INTRA LTD	BUY	2,75,335	106.03	-
13-Jun-2012	HDIL	Housing Development and I	GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD	BUY	22,48,468	75.81	-
13-Jun-2012	HDIL	Housing Development and I	GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD	SELL	22,48,468	75.84	-
13-Jun-2012	KFA	Kingfisher Airlines Ltd.	TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.	BUY	42,84,532	13.89	-
13-Jun-2012	KFA	Kingfisher Airlines Ltd.	TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.	SELL	42,88,127	13.91	-
13-Jun-2012	LITL	Lanco Infratech Limited	SUNTECK WEALTHMAX CAPITAL PRIVATE LIMITED	BUY	116,88,817	13.98	-
13-Jun-2012	LITL	Lanco Infratech Limited	SUNTECK WEALTHMAX CAPITAL PRIVATE LIMITED	SELL	126,92,817	14.00	-
13-Jun-2012	MCDOWELL-N	United Spirits Limited	CREDIT SUISSE (SINGAPORE) LIMITED A/C CREDIT SUISSE (SINGAP	BUY	9,21,241	673.29	-
13-Jun-2012	SURANAT&P	Surana Telecom and Pow Lt	RUPENDER JAIN	SELL	2,00,000	16.50	-

NSE, Bulk deals, 13-Jun-2012

Date	Symbol	Security Name	Client Name	Buy / Sell	Quantity Traded	Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price	Remarks
13-Jun-2012	3IINFOTECH	3i Infotech Limited	KOTAK MAHINDRA INTERNATIONAL LIMITED FCCB	SELL	19,00,000	10.01	-
13-Jun-2012	ARSSINFRA	ARSS Infra Proj. Ltd	IFCI LTD.	SELL	1,58,193	51.18	-
13-Jun-2012	DPTL	Dhunseri Petroc & Tea Ltd	PLENTY VALLEY INTRA LTD	BUY	2,75,335	106.03	-
13-Jun-2012	HDIL	Housing Development and I	GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD	BUY	22,48,468	75.81	-
13-Jun-2012	HDIL	Housing Development and I	GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD	SELL	22,48,468	75.84	-
13-Jun-2012	KFA	Kingfisher Airlines Ltd.	TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.	BUY	42,84,532	13.89	-
13-Jun-2012	KFA	Kingfisher Airlines Ltd.	TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.	SELL	42,88,127	13.91	-
13-Jun-2012	LITL	Lanco Infratech Limited	SUNTECK WEALTHMAX CAPITAL PRIVATE LIMITED	BUY	116,88,817	13.98	-
13-Jun-2012	LITL	Lanco Infratech Limited	SUNTECK WEALTHMAX CAPITAL PRIVATE LIMITED	SELL	126,92,817	14.00	-
13-Jun-2012	MCDOWELL-N	United Spirits Limited	CREDIT SUISSE (SINGAPORE) LIMITED A/C CREDIT SUISSE (SINGAP	BUY	9,21,241	673.29	-
13-Jun-2012	SURANAT&P	Surana Telecom and Pow Lt	RUPENDER JAIN	SELL	2,00,000	16.50	-

MindTree Ltd. Raise PT and earnings estimates; maintain OW:: Morgan Stanley Research,

MindTree Ltd.
Raise PT and earnings
estimates; maintain OW
What's Changed
Price Target Rs565.00 to Rs765.00
F13e and F14e EPS Up by 23% and 21%
Despite slower revenue growth in PE services and
moderating revenue growth in IT services, we still
expect 14% yoy US$ revenue growth overall. We
factor in rupee gains and raise our EPS estimates;
our PT rises to Rs765. We believe stronger than
expected US$ revenue growth could trigger
re-rating.
Management expects to deliver higher than industry
revenue growth in F13e: After flattish revenues in PE
services in F12, management expects single-digit
revenue growth in F13e. In IT services, management
indicated that the pipeline remains strong; however,
conversion is taking longer. Cross-currency movements
could eat into 1Q US$ revenue growth by 100 to 150 bps
qoq, in our view. We forecast US$ revenue growth of
~14% yoy in F13e, in line with NASSCOM forecasts for
industry growth.
Margins hold upside in F13e: MindTree has deferred
wage hikes from April to the month of June. Deferral of
wage hikes and steep rupee depreciation so far should
help margins for 1Q. Management expects to improve
margins by another 100 to 150 bps yoy in F13 and any
currency impact should further add to margins. Given
strong rupee depreciation, we believe margins could
surprise positively in F13e. We have assumed the
benefit of rupee depreciation to EBIT margins (~13.7%,
+200bps yoy) in F13e at Rs52.5/US$.
Valuation looks attractive: We have raised our
earnings estimates by 23% for F13e and 21% for F14e
on improved margin assumptions. The stock is currently
trading at ~9-10x our revised estimates vs. earnings
CAGR of 15% over F12-14e.

Steel Authority of India -SAIL- The wait for operational improvement continues, but not a "lost case" as some argue:: JPMorgan,

Steel Authority of India Ltd Neutral
SAIL.BO, SAIL IN
The wait for operational improvement continues, but
not a "lost case" as some argue


SAIL’s 4Q operationally was a miss, with reported EBITDA of Rs18.8B,
compared to JPMe/consensus of Rs20.4B/Rs21B even as the company benefited
from lower employee costs compared to our/consensus estimates of a Rs3B
increase q/q. In our view, the operational EBITDA improvement was essentially
driven by lower coking coal costs in FY13E, and volume/efficiency in FY14E is
still very much on. Higher volumes and ASPs are a positive and highlight the long
product strength.

Sesa Goa Ltd (SESA IN) N(V): Value unlocking from new bauxite source some time away  HSBC Research,

Sesa Goa Ltd (SESA IN)
N(V): Value unlocking from new bauxite source some time
away
 Sterlite Industries signs bauxite supply agreement with
companies holding mining concessions
 If mine eventually starts, we look at upsides based on
various scenarios; value unlocking will be time consuming
and contingent on several approvals
 We are N on SESA with TP of INR210

Plan family trusts early ::Business Line

The last two decades, post liberalisation, have seen a significant step-up in the wealth creation process in India, especially amongst business families.

Their own businesses continue to be a dominant part (on an average comprising of 80-90 per cent) of their overall wealth.

Surpluses generated by these families are largely deployed back into their business. This is where they see real wealth creation over the medium to long term.

It is important that they plan the ownership and succession of their assets, particularly their business holdings, in order to ensure business continuity and make sure that wealth continues to be made available across generations.

BGR Energy Systems (BGRE.BO) Maintain Sell (3H) – Target Price Cut to Rs252 Citi, Research

BGR Energy Systems (BGRE.BO)
Maintain Sell (3H) – Target Price Cut to Rs252
 4QFY12 in line with expectations —BGRL’s 4QFY12 PAT at Rs672mn down 32%
YoY was in line with CIRA at Rs677mn. In FY12 sales were down 27% YoY, margins
expanded 234bps and PAT at Rs2.2bn was down 31% YoY.

Ways to kickstart economic activity ::Business Line

With our country's GDP growth rate slowing down in the last two quarters, people believe that the RBI is likely to adopt a “quantitative easing” policy to get the economy back on track. What does “quantitative easing” mean?

It means that RBI is directly or indirectly making more money available in the economy to boost spending, which in turn boosts economic activity. How does this work?

When more money is available, people tend to spend more on goods and services, and, thus, the sellers see their incomes rising.

These sellers are also buyers — they buy goods and services other than the ones they sell. This in turn increases income to other sellers, and the chain continues. This income-multiplying process typically jump-starts economic activity.

Such measures that infuse more money into the system to get the economy rolling are referred to as “quantitative easing” policies. The RBI can also reduce the money supply when required.

Info Edge (India) Ltd. India Summit: Management Meeting Takeaways: Morgan Stanley Research

Info Edge (India) Ltd.
India Summit: Management
Meeting Takeaways
Quick Comment: Management indicated that its
internal targets would be lower than actual performance
last year and it needs to wait and watch 1Q trends to get
better picture of fiscal 2013 revenue outlook.

Sales Traders Commentary : 13 June: Edelweiss

Sales Traders Commentary

The Indian equity market ended on a buoyant note on Tuesday as dismal IIP growth raised hopes of rate cut by the RBI at its mid-quarter monetary policy review meeting on June 18. Both Sensex and Nifty gained 1.10% each and the latter closed above 5100. Buying was seen in realty, financial, capital goods, auto and PSU stocks.

While the Sensex closed at 16862, up 195 points, the Nifty gained 62 points to end the day at 5116.

Major gainers were Maruti Suzuki India (3.31%), Tata Motors (3.16%), Larsen & Toubro (2.38%), Sterlite Industries (India) (2.37%), Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (2.21%), and Hindalco Industries (2.20%).

Major losers were Dr Reddy`s Laboratories (1.90%), Wipro (1.71%), Hindustan Unilever (0.57%), Jindal Steel & Power (0.14%), Tata Power Company (0.10%), and Reliance Industries (0.04%).

The Realty index jumped 2.01%. Major gainers were Godrej Properties (4.45%), Housing Development and Infrastructure (3.98%), Indiabulls Real Estate (3.63%), Prestige Estates Projects (2.91%) and D L F (2.56%).

The Bankex was up 1.90%. Major gainers were Canara Bank (3.99%), Bank of India (2.9%), Bank of Baroda (2.24%), H D F C Bank (1.9%) and Federal Bank (1.86%).

The Capital Goods index gained 1.84%. Major gainers were Crompton Greaves (2.58%), BEML (1.98%), Bharat Heavy Electricals (1.5%), A B B (1.29%) and Alstom Projects India (0.78%).

The HC index slipped 0.40%. Major losers were Dr Reddy`s Laboratories (1.9%), Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (1.4%), Aurobindo Pharma (0.93%), Glenmark Pharmaceutical (0.35%) and Cadila Healthcare (0.11%).

Major gainers in the mid-cap space were Aban Offshore (1.47%), Alstom Projects India (0.78%), Allcargo Logistics (0.75%), Alok Industries (0.27%) and A B G Shipyard (0.27%).

Major gainers among small caps were Advanta India (2.35%), Alembic Pharmaceutical (2.03%), Genesys International Corporation (1.91%), Aarti Industries (0.99%) and Andhra Pradesh Paper Mills (0.98%).

Globally, Asian indices ended on a lower note while European indices were trading in the green.

When electronic transactions fail… ::Business Line

Money transfers through RTGS (Real-Time Gross Settlement) and NEFT (National Electronic Funds Transfer) have become quite popular. But as the latest Annual Report of the Banking Ombudsman points out, complaints regarding non-credit, delayed credit and delayed return of funds in failed transactions are on the rise.

The report recounts one such case where the complainant approached the ombudsman alleging inordinate delay on the part of the bank in transferring funds under RTGS.

On home loans ::Business Line

Credit score is a one-point reference

How helpful are credit reports and credit scores? I plan to take a loan soon. What precautions do I need to take?

— Vidya C.

A credit report which provides details about your credit score is a one-point reference of how prudently you handle any credit lent to you.

This depends on three factors: (a) The amount of credit you actually have access to. For example, if you have a credit card with a Rs 1 lakh limit, this is definitely better for your credit score compared with a lower limit of, say, Rs 25,000. (b) The time frame for which you have been accessing credit. For example, a borrower who has a home loan and is into his fifth year of repayment will have a better score compared with someone who is just two months into his loan tenure. (c) How prudently you manage your credit is key along with the above factors. Here it means paying on time, keeping a track of your net worth and balancing your budget, so that you don't take on too much credit, straining your ability to repay it.

Staying away from equity is not a wise option :Business Line

I am 25 and my monthly income is Rs 40,000. I invest Rs 11,000 every month.

I buy gold coins for Rs 8,000 and invest Rs 1,500 each (through SIPs) in Reliance Equity Opportunities and DSP BR Microcap. My current balance is Rs 1.5 lakh. Contribution to the tune of Rs 2,000 is done towards VPF. I invest Rs 5,000 in PPF and Rs 20,000 in direct equity, every year.

I have a term insurance policy for Rs 30 lakh with an annual premium of Rs 7,050.

Since my father has retired, I am sharing the monthly expenses of Rs 25,000 with my brother.

Although my brother and I have taken a home loan jointly, he pays the EMI but I want to get the tax benefits. I have taken a personal loan from my employer and have to pay an EMI of Rs 4,000 for the next 9 months. I have a monthly surplus of Rs 3,000.

Is my current investment strategy appropriate, considering my age.

After my marriage, where do you think I should start investing? I wish to invest in real estate projects in my village where land prices are attractive.

— Abhishek Shanbhogue