Week of 12th March 2012: Vivek Patil Weekly Technical Analysis : PDF link

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Top Stories of the Week Sensex recovers initial loss, forms Hammer-like candle for the week. Samajwadi Party gets a clean majority in Uttar Pradesh. Congress suffers setback in UP, Punjab and Goa. RBI cuts CRR by 75 basis points. China reduces '2012 growth target to 8-year low of 7.5%. Rupee touches 6-week low, crosses 50.

13.03.2012: Derivatives Report : Angel Broking -PDF link

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Derivatives Report

Economy Update - RBI surprises with 75bps CRR cut::Emkay PDF link

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Economy Update RBI surprises with 75bps CRR cut In a much bolder step, RBI today has reduced the CRR rate by a steep 75bps to 4.75% effective 10th March, 2012 ·      While the CRR cut was much along our expected lines (see our recent strategy report titled “India strategy - Early to write off the downgrade cycle”) the quantum i.e. a 75bps cut (against our expectations of 50bps) has come in as a big +ve surprise ·      Through 50bps CRR cut in its third quarter monetary policy review + on-going OMO operations since Nov, 2011, RBI had already infused liquidity to the tune of Rs1.5tn (2.4% of NDTL) into the system. The recent CRR cut would further infuse liquidity by Rs480bn ·      The timing of CRR cut too is appreciated as we are a notch away from advance tax payments dues on 15th March. With this much expected move, we expect the quarterly monetary policy to be non-eventful ·      A prolonged period of substantially higher WPI inflation had restricted the central bank from easing its monetary stance. This in-turn had affected the non-food credit growth which remained fragile at 15.5% as at Feb 10th, 2012 ·      Also, in the back drop of moderating GDP growth (Q3FY12 stood at 6.1%), dismal IIP growth (1.8% for Dec’2011) and easing WPI Inflation (Jan’12 stood at 6.5%) we had anticipated for a strong case of CRR cut ·      We do not expect banks to immediately reduce their lending rates as they would like to wait for any reduction in policy rates. Resultantly, this will have positive impact on bank NIMs to the tune of ~7-10bps

Click here to read report: Economy Update

Nifty view for the week:12th March ::GEPL pdf link

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Nifty view for the week:12th March

Nifty Weekly report

   

Sustenance above 5400 should now be interpreted as a sign of strength. The level of 5220 would now serve as a support if the bias remains bullish.

13.03.2012: Technical Report : Angel Broking -PDF link

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Technical Report 

Platinum trades above gold for first time in six months (ET)

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Platinum rose for a fifth day in a row on Tuesday, its longest stretch of gains since October, pushing the price above that of gold for the first time in six months, while gold fell below $1,700 an ounce before a US rate decision.

Railway freight Railway ups freights sharply – cement to be most hit:: EMKAY pdf link

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Railway freight Railway ups freights sharply – cement to be most hit Indian Railways raises freight rates across product categories The Ministry of Railways raised the freight rates (for train loads) by on an average 20-32% with effect from March 06, 2012, driven by clubbing of various distance categories (from 179 to 37) and also clubbing certain classes of goods. While for all the other commodities the increases will be upto 27%, for fertilisers and food grains, the increase in the freight will be to the tune of 30-33% due to change in the classes of goods Impact higher for fertilizers and foodgrains but it will affect subsidies While fertilizers and food grains were earlier part of class 130A category, they have been merged with class 130 resulting in additional 3-6% additional increase in the freight costs. For all other products, the costs upto 1000kms distance will go up by ~22.5% and above 1000kms will go up by 25%. However, we do not see any impact on fertilizers industry as the freight costs are 100% pass through in subsidies. Also, in case of foodgrains it will largely affect Food Corporation of India. And hence, both these are likely result in subsidies moving higher by Rs14bn. Iron ore for exports to see lower freight costs However, one category which will see reduction in freight is iron ores (meant for exports). The iron ores (meant for exports) have been moved from class 200 to a lower class 160 resulting in about 4% reduction in freight cost Second effective railway freight increase in last 4 months In order to get its deteriorating financials in place, the Indian railways have been looking to raise effective freight charges in absence of any increase in passenger charges. In Oct 2011 the railways had increased the busy season charge from 7% to 10% and development surcharge from 2% to 5%. This had meant an effective 6% increase in railway freight charges. Railway budget may be a non-event The raising of freights just a week before the announcement of Railway Budget 2012-13 (and before the parliamentary session begins) probably shows the non-confrontationist attitude of the government and also reflects that the railway budget may turn out to be a non-event, Railways to benefit by Rs150bn The highest impact of the hike will be on coal movement which contributes about 75% of the total goods transported by Railways. In terms of profitability, however, cement will be most hit with 4-7.5% impact on EBIDTA. The average kilometer per tonne for good transported by Indian Railways comes at 661kms, the category for which the freight hike works out to 23.3%. Hence, we estimate that the freight rate hike would result in Rs150bn for the Indian Railway.hHHmfemgesgsdzg Click here to read report: Event Update

13.03.2012: Market Summary : Angel Broking -PDF link

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Market Summary

13.03.2012: Market Outlook : Angel Broking -PDF link

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Market Outlook 

BSE, Bulk deals, 13/3/2012

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Deal Date	Scrip Code	Company	Client Name	Deal Type *	Quantity	Price **
13/3/2012	511706	Action Fin	HITESH KANTILAL GANDHI	B	100000	26.25
13/3/2012	511706	Action Fin	NITA HITESH GANDHI	B	60000	26.25
13/3/2012	511706	Action Fin	SEKSARIA INDUSTRIES PVT. LTD	S	356059	26.28
13/3/2012	507852	Addi Inds-$	SEWASTUTI FINANCE P.LTD	B	150000	5.25
13/3/2012	507852	Addi Inds-$	ALKYONE REALTORS PRIVATE LIMITED	S	150000	5.25
13/3/2012	533314	AGS Infotech	COASTAL FERTILISERS LIMITED	B	100000	28.19
13/3/2012	533314	AGS Infotech	GODAVARI COMMERCIAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED	S	100000	28.19
13/3/2012	532435	Asia HR Tech	TRINITY INVESTMENTS	B	100000	7.60
13/3/2012	532435	Asia HR Tech	KUNAL ZAVERILAL DEDHIA	S	70945	7.61
13/3/2012	532435	Asia HR Tech	HEENA TULSHI CHANDAN	S	57815	7.61
13/3/2012	512149	Avance Tech	VORA FINANCIAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED	B	3300000	0.16
13/3/2012	512149	Avance Tech	MAGAN MERCANTILE PVT LTD	S	4000000	0.16
13/3/2012	534109	BCB FINANCE	IKAB SECURITIES & INVESTMENTS LTD	B	204000	25.75

13/3/12: FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE) (Rs. crore)

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FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE)

(Rs. crore)
	FII			DII
Trade Date	Buy	Sales	Net	Buy	Sales	Net
13/3/12	2,758.88	1,886.20	872.68	943.46	1,377.20	-433.74

January IIP grew 6.8% Ø :: CSEC Research

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January IIP grew 6.8%

Ø       The S&P CNX Nifty opened near 5400 mark and declined more than a percent from the day high to close at 5359. The volumes were on the higher side, the FII bought shares worth Rs 12,986 mn.

Ø       IIP for the month of January 2012 registered a growth of 6.8 percent. The IIP numbers were above street estimates. Manufacturing and Electricity grew at 8.5 percent and 3.2 percent while mining witnessed degrowth of 2.7 percent.

Ø       Bank Nifty gained more than a percent on the back of CRR cut from the RBI. State bank rallied 3 percent and topped the index gainers list.

Ø       Shares of Natco pharma was in action as the management informed that it had received a compulsory licence from the Indian patents office to manufacture and sell a generic version of Bayer's cancer treatment drug Nexavar.

Outlook

Ø       U.S. stocks rose for a third session on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq tallying a fourth week of gains, after another strong monthly jobs report

Ø      In today trade Asian markets are up nearly a percent and the SGX Nifty is trading near 5450 mark. Going ahead Indian market is likely to open on a positive note.

 

Regards,

CSEC Research

Trading Today (March 13, 2012) :Emkay PDF link

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Trading Today (March 13, 2012)

From Our Technical Desk From The Dealing Desk Market Outlook: The markets opened with an upside gap, gave off from the day’s high and ended on a flat note. Buying was seen in Realty and Banking counters while Technology counter witnessed selling pressure.   Nifty: The markets traded within a tight range amid high volatility and ended with modest gains.  Resistance is seen at 5,420/5,440 and a close above this will extend the rally further to 5,550 levels. The 5 DMA at 5,316 will act as an immediate support for Nifty. Major sign of weakness can be seen only if Nifty closes below 5,200 until that any dip can be considered as a good buying opportunity in the market. Support: Major support level 5,350/5,320. Conclusion: Market to remain volatile, trade with strict Stop Loss. Trading Ideas Trading idea which we like is JAI CORP (Target 125), HINDALCO (Target 145), LOVABLE (Target 420) & HPCL (Target 345). Traders maintain stop loss accordingly. Investment Ideas CESC CMP @ Rs297 (Target Price: Rs371) Statistical Data Derivatives Update Advance Decline Ratio Sector updates Exchange Volumes Implied Volatility for ATM Options Put Call Ratio for (Open Interest) FII - MF Activity World Markets Currency Click here to read report: Trading Today

13/3/12: Categories Turnover (BSE) (Rs. crore) Clients NRI Proprietary Trade Data

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Categories Turnover (BSE)

(Rs. crore)
	Clients			NRI			Proprietary
Trade Date	Buy	Sales	Net	Buy	Sales	Net	Buy	Sales	Net
13/3/12	1,962.59	2,047.90	-85.31	0.65	1.55	-0.90	658.01	608.28	49.73
12/3/12	1,560.46	1,604.38	-43.93	0.94	0.84	0.09	510.24	487.09	23.15
9/3/12	2,227.45	2,384.40	-156.95	2.78	0.96	1.82	708.57	666.42	42.16
Mar , 12	15,606.02	15,695.97	-89.95	16.23	8.27	7.96	5,473.25	5,390.15	83.09
Since 1/1/12	94,679.07	96,484.92	-1,805.85	59.99	58.16	1.83	34,582.15	33,453.03	1,129.12

NSE, Bulk deals, 13-Mar-2012

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Date	Symbol	Security Name	Client Name	Buy / Sell	Quantity Traded	Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price	Remarks
13-Mar-2012	BEDMUTHA	Bedmutha Indust Ltd	NITIN BABAJI PALANDE	BUY	2,12,313	22.11	-
13-Mar-2012	BEDMUTHA	Bedmutha Indust Ltd	NITIN BABAJI PALANDE	SELL	2,23,572	21.69	-
13-Mar-2012	EDUCOMP	Educomp Solutions Limited	CORONATION INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT COMPANY (PTY) LTD A/C CORO	SELL	12,68,907	201.26	-
13-Mar-2012	GLODYNE	Glodyne Technoserve Ltd	VINCENT TRADING PRIVATE LIMITE	BUY	3,00,000	331.47	-

13 March: Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)

Indian markets opened the new week on a euphoric note with a large gap higher and above the 5400 mark. However profit taking soon picked up as the Asian peers were trading on a softer note and also helped by the February IIP data, Nifty gave up most of its gains to settle down in a narrow trading range in the second half. The day’s strength was supported by strong breadth and good turnover. The index  is trading above its 21 and 50 hourly EMAs that will offer good support at 5320. Momentum oscillators on the daily and hourly charts have turned bullish suggesting an overall bullish outlook. Since the week is going to be loaded with market moving events, traders will have to be on their toes to match up to the volatility. We continue to maintain our bullish bias with stop-loss trailed to 5230 for targets of 5455 and 5550. For the intermediate term, 5163 (200 DMA) becomes the pivot for the bulls.

Sectoral indices trend was clearly in favour of high beta. The top gainers were Cap Goods (+2.56%), Realty (+1.90%) and Oil & Gas (+1.24%) indexes, whereas the underperformers were the defensive IT (-1.06%), Healthcare (-0.15%) and FMCG (+0.10%). Among the broader markets the Mid-cap index outperformed with gains of 1.06%, followed by Small-cap index gaining 0.70%.

Bullish Setups: LT, CNXBANK, SHRS, HNDL, RIL, COAL  

Bearish Setups: ADE, BPCL, MM

13 March : Stocks in News :: Edelweiss

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Stocks in News

Natco bags licence to sell Bayer’s cancer drug copy (ET)

CCI order investigation against Coal India (ET)

NMDC to buy Brazilian iron ore co Amplus in $ 150-m deal (ET)

KFA cancel 50 flights on Monday, cancellations follow strike by pilots and staffers due to salary delays (ET)

SC issues notices on 2G case transfer (BS)

PNB plans INR 23.6 bn capital infusion (MINT)

Banks borrow INR 1 tn from RBI on Monday (MINT)                    

IDFC plans India’s first Infrastructure Debt Fund through mutual fund route

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IDFC  plans to launch India’s  first infrastructure debt fund through MF route and  filed an offer document with SEBI  .

The framework for establishment of Infrastructure Debt Funds (IDFs) was announced by the   Finance Minister in the   Union budget 2011  wherein IDFs were allowed to be set up either structured as an NBFC or as a mutual fund. IDFC MF  have done the filing  with SEBI through the MF route. IDFs are a novel attempt to address the issue of sourcing long term debt for infrastructure projects.  

Metals & Mining Highlights of Interface with Aluminium Expert : Emkay PDF link

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Metals & Mining Highlights of Interface with Aluminium Expert Sterlite Ind.: CMP: Rs109                                        Target Price: Rs123 Hindalco Ind.: CMP: Rs131                                      Target Price: Rs154 We had an aluminium industry veteran Mr. Arun Kumar Sharma at our place. We deliberated on several aspects across the aluminium space covering the following ·      Global: Aluminium “demand – supply” balance and cost curve ·      India: Cost advantage lost, however growth to continue ·      Technology and Capex costs Key highlights and our take on same enclosed

Click here to read report: Sector Update