01 March 2012

Auto Sales Update - Cars and trucks steal the show:: Edelweiss PDF link

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Car makers benefitted from advancement of purchases, as excise duties are widely expected to go up in the upcoming union budget. Commercial vehicles continue to grow despite weak industrial growth, benefitting from road construction and capacity constraints at Indian Railways. Tractors and two wheelers disappointed due to poor rural demand. We prefer an early interest rate cycle play and Maruti Suzuki is our top pick. 

Disinvestments - Cabinet approves PSU buyback:: Edelweiss PDF link

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Under intense pressure to rein in mounting fiscal slippages, the govt in November had proposed three steps to kick start the lagging disinvestment process to shore up finances. Of the three, the Union Cabinet has cleared the proposal of buyback of shares for public sector enterprises (PSUs). In our view, likely candidates for the buyback could be PSUs with enough cash to meet their capex requirements for FY13 and lower borrowing. We believe the most likely candidates are Coal India, Bharat Electronics, NMDC, Oil India, MMTC, and MOIL.

1 March: Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
    Nifty ended marginally higher in a volatile session that opened on a positive note, but gave up most of the gains by the end of the day. Following the bullish trend across Asian indices, the index opened higher with a gap and managed to break past Monday’s high triggering a ‘bullish harami’ breakout confirmation, however as the day progressed, consistent selling at 5450 (50% retracement of the 4-seesion fall) led the index lower wiping out majority if the gains and even close below 5400. Volumes were relatively higher and the market breadth was marginally in favour of advances. Trend among the momentum oscillators is mixed on various time frames; hence expect the volatile moves to continue. The index could possibly trade in a range of 5300-5530 to form a triangle consolidation pattern. For the intermediate term though Nifty has strong support at 5235 and 5170 (200 DMA).
    Among the sectoral performances, the top gainers of the day were Oil & Gas (+2.53%), Metals (+1.45%) and Realty (+1.10%); and the top losing sectors were Cap Goods (-1.59%), FMCG (-0.72%) and Banking (-0.59%) indices. The broader markets fared better than the frontline index as the Mid-cap index gained 1.10% and the Small-cap index gained +0.62%.

    Bullish Setups: PWGR, HPCL, ACEM, CNXBANK, SHRS
    Bearish Setups: SESA, MSIL, HCLT

1 March: Stocks in News :: Edelweiss

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 Stocks in News
    Economy crawls at 6.1% in Q3, slowest in 3 years (ET)
    Pantaloon Retail may exit JV with Staples Inc by June, pocket INR 2bn (ET)
    Maruti`s new Manesar union to demand wage revision (ET)
    RCOM demand INR 700mn from S Tel (ET)
    JSW Steel to complete $275mn fund raising this month (ET)
    RCOM pays $1.18bn to redeem outstanding FCCBs (ET)
    Oil firms hike ATF prices by 3.2% to INR 64,596.36 kl (MINT)
    Sun Pharma announces USFDA approval for generic Zyprexa Zydis tablets (DNA)
    GAIL India, OVL may bid for Cove (BS)
    GoM to decide on fast – track nod for coal blocks today (BS)

12.15% Religare Finvest NCDs available at par

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Dear Investor,

With the RBI showing signs of monetary easing, the time is opportune to invest in good quality corporate bonds with a medium to long term investment horizon. Apart from fetching attractive coupon rates, there is also an opportunity to make capital gains on bonds if interest rates eventually soften. One good option to consider is theNon-Convertible Debentures (NCDs) issued by Religare Finvest Ltd (RFL). These NCDs offer a highcoupon rate of 12.15%. The bonds have been rated LAA- by ICRA indicating a high degree of safety regarding timely servicing of financial obligations and carrying low credit risk.

Bond Details:

Details
Particulars
Rating
LAA- by ICRA
Face Value
Rs.1000
Minimum Investment
100 Debentures
Coupon/Interest Rate
12.15% p.a
Interest Payment Frequency
Annual
Maturity
23 Sep 2014
Put/Call option
N.A
Issuance
Demat Form

Company Overview:

Religare Finvest, a 100% subsidiary of Religare Enterprises Ltd, is a SME (Small & Medium Enterprise) financing focussed NBFC with a wide network of branches. It is a registered NBFC which concentrates on providing debt to encourage SMEs and credit like Loan against Property, Loan for Commercial Vehicles, Personal Finance etc. With a belief that the customer’s success is their success, its presence in 39 branches across all major cities plays a vital role in nurturing the customers business while growing to a book size of over US $2 Bn.

Company Financials:
                                                                                        (Rs.Cr)
Particulars
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Total Income
354.68
536.16
1,163.15
Profit after Tax
46.04
102.83
114.77
Networth
1,342.69
1,465.67
1,610.13

1 March: Stocks in News :: Edelweiss

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 Stocks in News
    Economy crawls at 6.1% in Q3, slowest in 3 years (ET)
    Pantaloon Retail may exit JV with Staples Inc by June, pocket INR 2bn (ET)
    Maruti`s new Manesar union to demand wage revision (ET)
    RCOM demand INR 700mn from S Tel (ET)
    JSW Steel to complete $275mn fund raising this month (ET)
    RCOM pays $1.18bn to redeem outstanding FCCBs (ET)
    Oil firms hike ATF prices by 3.2% to INR 64,596.36 kl (MINT)
    Sun Pharma announces USFDA approval for generic Zyprexa Zydis tablets (DNA)
    GAIL India, OVL may bid for Cove (BS)
    GoM to decide on fast – track nod for coal blocks today (BS)

Technical Report:: March 1: Angel Broking PDF link

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Derivatives Report :: March 1: Angel Broking PDF link

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Market Summary :: March 1: Angel Broking PDF link

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Market Outlook :: March 1: Angel Broking PDF link

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 01-Mar-2012

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 01-Mar-2012 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES561161500.62695811852.2248419912972.19-351.60
INDEX OPTIONS55258814843.9454199014509.45156665641823.73334.49
STOCK FUTURES586881693.59757812213.4297461228569.75-519.83
STOCK OPTIONS26508748.4827571777.71460611327.20-29.23
      Total-566.16


-- 

India Strategy : Early to write off the downgrade cycle :: Emkay PDF link

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India Strategy

Expected moderation in sales growth will extend the pressure on PAT growth
While global liquidity and the ‘risk on’ trade continues to drive equities, it is important not to lose sight of fundamentals. Many argue that earnings downgrade cycle has peaked and also argue for sharper cuts in interest rates ahead. Our analysis indicate that the earnings downgrade cycle is not yet over and would continue with a similar velocity over the next four quarters, led primarily by sharply slower sales growth and partly through an elevated cost structure. On interest rates, while we have no doubt they have peaked, we conclude that liquidity deficit is structural and will provide little headroom for rate cuts anytime soon. In this note, we focus on analyzing why sales growth would be sharply slower and argue that the factors look more structural than short term cyclical.

ONGC auction disappoints, gets bids for Rs 8,500 cr worth shares ::HT

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Shares of ONGC on Thursday began trading with modest gains in a weak market, as the government began sale of its 5% stake in the public sector energy giant through a one-day auction process on the bourses. The ONGC stock was trading 0.5% up at Rs 294.75 in early morning trade at 9.33 am. The stock had risen to as high as Rs 296.50 within minutes of the opening of trade.
The gains in ONGC shares were in sharp contrast to the overall weakness in the market and the benchmark Sensex was trading 158 points or about 1% down.
An auction process began at 9.15 am at the bourses for sale of the government's 5% stake in the company and would continue till 3.30 pm.
The floor price has been fixed at Rs 290 per share and the shares would be allocated on 'price-priority' basis, meaning the bidders at highest price would be allotted shares.
A day ahead of the auction, the ONGC stock had settled 3% higher on the bourses at Rs 293.35 on the BSE.
The government on Tuesday decided to offload 5% stake in ONGC through the auction route and the planned sale could fetch the government about Rs 12,000-13,000 crore.
The government owns 74.14% stake in ONGC and has proposed to sell 427.77 million shares or 5% equity.
The floor price, the minimum price for the sale of shares, was over 2% higher than ONGC's closing price of Rs 283.05 on NSE and Rs 283.55 on BSE on Monday.
The BSE is the designated exchange for the proposed share sale, but orders can be placed on both the BSE and NSE.
The sale of shares is taking place at a separate window of the two bourses. Any modification or cancellation of the orders would not be allowed in the last 30 minutes.
No single buyer, other than mutual funds and insurance companies, would be allocated more than 25% of the size of the offer.
In the event of the total number of orders received at or above the floor price being less than the number of shares being offered for sale, the government would have the right to either conclude the sale to the extent of subscription or cancel the sale.

ONGC's $2.5 bn share sale outcome uncertain ::ET

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India's $2.5 billion auction of government shares in Oil and Natural Gas Corp ended in chaos, with TV channels saying it had generated bids for just two-thirds of the shares on offer, but both of the country's main stock exchanges saying they were still counting orders.

"I'm in a crisis meeting. I can't talk," Sidhartha Pradhan, additional secretary in the government's Department of Disinvestment, told reporters outside his office in New Delhi before shutting the door.

One channel said state-owned Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) had stepped in to buy up the remainder of the shares, but another channel said this was not the case. The National Stock Exchange and the Bombay Stock Exchange said they were still counting bids that had been entered.

The floor price for the auction had been set at 290 rupees, a 2.3 percent premium to Tuesday's closing price - prompting criticism that it should have been priced at a discount in order to ensure success.

"I think greed played out here. This should be one of the lessons, not to try and price the offering at a premium, especially when a reference point is available in the market price," said Ambareesh Baliga, chief operating officer at Mumbai's Way2Wealth Securities.

The ONGC sale was intended to restart India's stalled programme to sell down stakes in state companies in order to trim its widening fiscal deficit. Market commentators were quick to slam the government's handling of the long-delayed ONGC sale, which was conducted via auction on the stock exchanges in a test case for a newly approved method.

"The ONGC issue should have been priced at a discount and planned out well, which would have created a positive sentiment for future disinvestments," said Sunil Jain, vice president of equity research at Nirmal Bang.

STILL COUNTING ...

More than two-and-a-half hours after the auction closed, official data was not available on how many shares had been bid for, but TV channels reported bids had been received for about 290 million of the 427.77 million shares on offer.

A company official said he could not immediately comment, while LIC officials were not available for comment. Shares in ONGC, the country's largest oil and gas producer and second-most valuable listed firm, ended the day down 1.7 percent at 288.2 rupees.

The government had earlier planned to sell ONGC shares through a public offer, but that was scrapped last October after a tepid response from investors amid weak equity markets. If fully subscribed, the offer would rank among India's five biggest equity offerings.

Citigroup, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, HSBC, Morgan Stanley, Nomura and India's JM Financial were the banks on the ONGC deal.

New Delhi is on track to fall far short of its target of trimming its fiscal deficit to 4.6 percent of GDP in the fiscal year that ends this month. The government had hoped to raise $8.1 billion in the current fiscal year but had managed just $250 million before the ONGC deal.

India's stalled divestment programme also calls for reduced holdings in other state-run firms such as Bharat Heavy Electricals and Steel Authority of India.

India's stock market posted its first annual fall in three years in 2011, losing nearly 25 percent. Shares in ONGC fell 20 percent in the same period.

1/3/12: FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE) (Rs. crore)

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FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE)
(Rs. crore)
FIIDII
Trade DateBuySalesNetBuySalesNet
1/3/122,133.212,259.73-126.52998.541,008.51-9.97

MCX IPO: (tentative) Shares allocation for retail category


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MCX IPO: How many shares should retail category expect to get?




1/3/12: Categories Turnover (BSE) (Rs. crore) Clients NRI Proprietary Trade Data

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Categories Turnover (BSE)

(Rs. crore)
ClientsNRIProprietary
Trade DateBuySalesNetBuySalesNetBuySalesNet
1/3/121,912.501,864.1448.362.321.490.83743.45747.52-4.07
29/2/122,201.922,179.6722.251.452.30-0.84900.78874.0026.78
28/2/121,825.411,851.54-26.120.390.49-0.10744.48694.9949.49
Mar , 121,912.501,864.1448.362.321.490.83743.45747.52-4.07
Since 1/1/1280,985.5582,653.10-1,667.5546.0851.38-5.3029,852.3528,810.401,041.95