11 February 2012

Bank of Baroda (BoB) Downgrade to N: Chinks in the armour  HSBC Research,

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Bank of Baroda (BoB)
Downgrade to N: Chinks in the armour
 A jump in restructured loans, higher slippages, lower
margins & premium multiples lead to our downgrade
 Margin and provisioning pressures remain, leading to 14%
and 15% earnings growth in FY12e-13e. But FY14e likely to
rebound to 26% as these pressures abate
 We downgrade to N from OW and cut our TP to INR889 from
INR961, implying 15.1% potential return

Indraprastha Gas Ltd N: Volume risk to intensify HSBC Research,

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Indraprastha Gas Ltd
N: Volume risk to intensify
 IGL reported sequentially lower earnings in Q3 FY12 due to
higher gas cost
 Falling domestic production coupled with fully utilized
import capacity mean IGL will struggle to maintain volume
growth despite adequate demand
 We cut our TP from INR475 to INR366 on lower target
multiple and estimates, but retain our Neutral rating given
the recent correction in the stock

MCX gets SEBI nod for IPO

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The decks have been cleared for commodity exchange MCX to get its shares listed on the bourses. The capital market regulator has conveyed to Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) its final observations for the proposed offering involving stake sale by some of the existing shareholders through an offer-of-sale route.
"SEBI on Thursday conveyed its go ahead for the issue," said Mr Venkat Chary, Chairman of MCX. He, however, said that the exact date of the issue was yet to be finalised.
He said that the red herring prospectus will now be filed with registrar of companies. This is seen as the last step in the regulatory process before an issue can hit the market. Indications are that the MCX offering will happen in the third or fourth week of this month.
As it is an offer for sale, MCX will not get the issue proceeds, but only the selling shareholders will get the funds.
In 2008, MCX was looking to come out with an IPO, involving additional issue of shares by the company itself and also enabling some existing shareholders to offload part of their holding. However, this could not go through and now only an offer for sale route is being pursued.
Shares on offer
"MCX is cash rich. We don't need the funds from this offering," Mr Chary noted. In all, about 64.27 lakh shares of MCX will be on offer. This constitutes about 12.60% of the post offer paid-up equity capital.
Financial Technologies (India) Ltd, State Bank of India (Equity), GLG Financials Fund, Alexandra Mauritius Ltd, Corporation Bank, Bank of Baroda and ICICI Lombard General Insurance are the selling shareholders.
Citigroup Global Markets India, Edelweiss Capital Ltd and Morgan Stanley India will manage the offer for sale, according to the draft prospectus filed with SEBI in April last year.
Once the offer for issue is completed, MCX would be the first ever exchange in India to gets its shares listed.

Petronet LNG -Strong show continues:: Prabhudas Lilladher,

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Petronet LNG’s (PLNG’s) Q3FY12 result was significantly better than our expectation
on the EBITDA and bottom-line front. Top-line registered a growth of 74.5% YoY to
Rs63.3bn (Rs36.3bn) on account of 20.8% YoY growth in volumes, coupled with
43.9% YoY growth in realisations. EBITDA/TBTU witnessed an expansion, from
Rs33.2/TBTU in Q2FY12 to Rs34.7/TBTU in Q3FY12. Bottom-line, during the quarter,
stood at Rs2,953m (Rs1,708m), registering an increase of 72.9% YoY v/s our
expectation of Rs2,495m during the quarter.
􀂄 Performance led by spot marketing margins: Our calculation suggests that the
company made gross marketing profits on spot volumes of Rs1,757m (28.0% of
the reported gross margins for the quarter). The share of marketing margins in
overall gross margins has increased from 11% in Q3FY11 to 28% in Q3FY12. We
believe, PLNG has witnessed a 39% QoQ growth in marketing margins from
US$1.0/mmbtu (Q2FY12 to US$1.39/mmbtu (Q3FY12). Volumes during Q2FY12
were at 145TBTU (120TBTU); the same were slightly higher than our estimate of
142TBTU. PLNG imported around 45 cargoes in the quarter compared to 42
cargoes handled in Q2FY12.
􀂄 Outlook: PLNG’s utility nature of business (stable re-gasification margins and
term contracts), low regulatory risks (re-gasification margins are not currently
under PNGRB’s purview) and expanding volumes on account of strong demand
estimates, hold it in good stead. We have increased our marketing margins
assumption for the on account of strong demand. We believe that continued
strength in the marketing margins on the spot volumes, coupled with positive
news-flow pertaining to Kochi terminal, is likely to provide positive catalyst to
the stock price. We maintain ‘BUY’, with a DCF-based target price of
Rs197/share, implying a P/E of 12.6x FY13E.

Marico - Robust operational performance; RM tailwinds ahead:: Prabhudas Lilladher,

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􀂄 Strong operational performance; 16% domestic volume growth: Marico
reported strong operational Q3Y12 performance, with 16% domestic volume
growth (13% overall) and 300bps gross margin expansion being the key
highlights. Notwithstanding the price hikes in its core brands and general
inflationary headwinds to consumer wallets, volume growth of 16% reinforces
MRCO’s dominant brand franchise. Sales, EBITDA and PAT came in at Rs10.56bn
(up 29% YoY), Rs1.22bn (up 22.1% YoY) and Rs841m (up 21%YoY), against our
expectations of Rs10bn, Rs1.19bn and Rs810m, respectively. Recurring PAT
adjusted for exceptional grew solid 25%. Parachute, Saffola and Value-added
hair oils posted 13%, 15% and 2% volume growth, while Kaya reported 15%
same store clinic growth. International division delivered 16% organic revenue
growth.
􀂄 Softening in RM and price hikes boost gross margins: With high RM in the base
and softening in Copra (down 9% QoQ), standalone as well as consol gross
margins expanded 300bps (consol gross margins up 120bps YoY). Like to like
EBITDA margins (adjusting for Rs96m as excise provisioning in Q3FY11)
contracted ~200bps driven by higher ad-spends (up170bps). Current quarter
also contains a charge of Rs129m in Kaya Middle East, pertaining to
misstatement of expenses related to earlier years, thus, resulting in
consequent overstatement of Kaya profitability in the relevant period. As per
the management, appropriate action has been taken for this lapse and
monitoring process has been further strengthened.
􀂄 Maintain ‘Accumulate’: MRCO’s continued strong volume driven performance,
despite the aggressive price hikes (taken in 2HFY11) and turn-around in RM
dynamics, creates a good tailwind for EPS upgrades, going forward. However,
current valuations at 23.6x FY13e is fair, in our view. Maintain ‘Accumulate’,
with a revised Mar-13 TP of Rs170. Turnaround in Copra price trajectory is the
key risk.

Bharat Forge :3QFY2012 Result Update : Angel Broking

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Strong performance at the standalone level: BHFC reported in-line 21.1% yoy
(3.4% qoq) growth in its standalone revenue to `941cr, driven by the strength of
its exports segment, which grew by 29.2% yoy (7.6% qoq). Strong growth in the
CV segment in the U.S. and Europe continued to drive exports revenue, which
grew by 35% and 27.3% yoy in the U.S. and Europe, respectively. Volumes in
tonnage terms increased by 15.2% yoy (3.1% qoq) to 55,412MT and net average
realization jumped by 6% yoy (1.5% qoq). EBITDA margin improved by 38bp yoy
(99bp qoq) to 24.7%, driven by favorable product mix, higher proportion of
machining component and operating leverage benefits. Net profit registered betterthan-
expected 24.9% yoy (down 3% qoq) growth to `103cr, led by stable operating
performance. However, forex loss of `9.1cr on forward contracts on exports led to
lower other income (down 73.3% yoy and 83.8% qoq), which restricted profitability.
Consolidated performance impacted by China operations: The company’s top
line on a consolidated basis grew by healthy 14.2% yoy (2.6% qoq) to `1,599cr,
driven largely by standalone operations. China operations were impacted on
account of weakness in Chinese automotive market, leading to lower capacity
utilization. EBITDA margin improved by 97bp yoy (50bp qoq) to 16.8%, resulting
in a 17.7% yoy (down 3% qoq) increase in PBT to `151cr. Noticeably, China
operations reported loss at the PBT level of `2.2cr in 3QFY2012 (profit of `1.4cr
in 2QFY2012 and `5.7cr in 3QFY2011).
Outlook and valuation: We expect BHFC to register a 20.4% revenue CAGR over
FY2011-13E, led by revival in domestic CV sales and continued momentum in
exports and non-auto segments. Further, margins are expected to remain stable,
led by rationalization of overseas capacities and moderating raw-material prices,
leading to a strong 33.3% net profit CAGR over the same period. At `307, BHFC
is trading at 13.9x FY2013E earnings. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the
stock with a target price of `332, valuing it at 15x FY2013E earnings.

Bajaj Corp report by GEPL (pdf link)

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The company has maintained strong growth trajectory during the quarter riding on the strong growth in light hair oils category. However concerns remain on revenue mix as most of the revenues are contributed by single brand Bajaj Almond drops. Any acquisition could be trigger to stock re-rating. The stock is trading at 10.5x multiple of FY13 consensus EPS of Rs10.4.  

Ranbaxy (RBXY IN) Downgrade to UW: Consent decree under strict terms HSBC Research,

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Ranbaxy (RBXY IN)
Downgrade to UW: Consent decree under strict terms
 US Department of Justice files consent decree of permanent
injunction against Ranbaxy enforcing cGMP compliance at
all sites – Paonta Sahib, Dewas and Gloversville
 Product approvals delay aside, decree puts strict terms on
maintaining FTFs – forfeits 3 exclusivities, risking additional
filings and adding liquidation damages
 Contrary to street expectations, base business recovery is
not in vicinity. Downgrade to UW from Neutral with target of
INR400 (earlier INR454) – 18x Sep-13 EPS with para IV INR40

Rupee to trade between 47-52 range in coming months: Ashish Ghiya, Derivium Tradition (ET)

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In an interview with ET Now, Ashish G hiya, MD, Derivium Tradition (India) , shares his views Indian markets and the current market rally. Excerpts:

ET Now: What is the broad range within which we can expect the 10-year benchmark to trade at?

Ashish Ghiya: The broad range for 10-year benchmark will be 8.10 -8.40 on the higher side.

ET Now: We had the OMO operations which have infused close to Rs 30,000 to 40,000 crore CRR cut. Do you believe that it is going to soothe the liquidity deficiency that we are seeing in the system so far?

Ashish Ghiya: The liquidity in the next couple of months is going to be challenging. Structural liquidity deficit grows for two reasons. It will keep on growing because of the currency in circulation going up largely. This is because of the elections and as the year end comes, there will be a drag as banks will tend to increase a deposit base. So, there will be more CRR maintenance. Therefore, the RBI needs to do some more in terms of OMOs and CRR cuts.

ET Now: Do you expect that by the end of March, the deficit problem will get addressed?

Ashish Ghiya: I believe that will happen in the first week of April.

ET Now: Is there any probability for the rates to cool off? What factor would you believe that would be contingent on?

Ashish Ghiya: Rates are already cooled off. If we look at the rates from where we started in November, they are already way off now. I do not think they will go higher drastically. So, they will go down further but that will now be contingent on RBI cutting policy rates which is expected in April.

ET Now: Over the last few months the equation between bank and non-bank credit to the commercial sector is now more in favour of the non-bank credit. Do you expect this trend to continue to hold up over the next few months or do you believe it will change back in favour of bank credit?

Ashish Ghiya: It will change partly in favour of bank credit. One of the reasons for that is going to be the interest rate cycle turning. So, as the interest rate cycle turns and as the banks gets more liquidity, they will get more aggressive in terms of either cutting base rates or giving more credit to the corporate sector. I do expect a correction to happen may be in the next fiscal year.

ET Now: What kind of trajectory are you penciling in for the rupee and what factors do you believe that it will be driven by?

Ashish Ghiya: The rupee battle has been won by the RBI. The battle has been won in terms of arresting the slide and the confidence. Part flows or a lot of flows have come in. Going ahead in terms of flows it remains balanced. NRE deposits will pick up a lot steam in the coming few months. So, the trajectory remains in the band of may be 51.5-52 on the higher side if the Euro crisis pans out more worse than we think. On the lower side, around 47 can be a band.


ET Now: The IIP numbers that came out today look bad. Is the market somewhere building in an expectation that on the 15th of March, we will see additional action from the RBI - not just a CRR cut but they will also get started on the repo rate front?

Ashish Ghiya: I do not think markets will start pricing in a repo rate cut immediately because of the lower IIP numbers. This is because RBI has always been apprehensive about the volatile component in the IIP which is the capital market goods index. I believe the sector has been jumping. It is a factor that builds further view that slowdown is for real but the number to watch out next is inflation number.

Indian Power --Only regulators have the power to cap prices and only for a limited period  HSBC Research,

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Indian Power
Only regulators have the power to cap prices and only for
a limited period
 We see no merit in recent reports claiming there are plans to
cap power tariffs for projects with captive mines
 As per the Electricity Act, only regulators have the power to
put a price ceiling in certain circumstances and for short
durations to ensure reasonable electricity prices
 Historically, only once has CERC capped prices and only under
short-term trades for 45 days, independent of fuel source

Cairn India Limited (CAIR) OW: Production ramp-up on track HSBC Research,

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Cairn India Limited (CAIR)
OW: Production ramp-up on track
 Q3FY12 results indicate operational parameters are in line
with market expectations
 Management is on track to deliver steady production growth
in the Rajasthan oil field
 We maintain our Overweight rating with a DCF-based target
price of INR400

Biocon Limited (BIOS IN) N: Biopharma slips, focus back on statins HSBC Research,

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Biocon Limited (BIOS IN)
N: Biopharma slips, focus back on statins
 Biopharma declined 5% qoq, but an opportunity in
atorvastatin is the next trigger
 Margins remain subdued given higher costs, including R&D,
despite strong research services and INR benefit
 Maintain N with a revised TP of INR305 (from INR310)

IIP - Not as bad as it seems :Edelweiss

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Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� �� Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew ~1.8% YoY in December, much lower than our 3.4% estimate due to sharp contraction in capital goods. However, as base effect is soiling YoY data, seasonally adjusted MoM (3MMA) data provides a better sense of the underlying trend. On this basis, industrial activity seems to have recovered in the past two months from the extremely weak Jun-Oct phase. In fact, all sub-categories including the forward-looking intermediate goods posted sequential improvement. In that sense, IIP data corroborates improvement in PMI data and we do expect activity in Q4FY12 to be better than Q3FY12. However, it may be too early to declare that the business cycle has turned around. The full impact of past monetary actions is yet to play out and fiscal slippages are huge. Besides, we are yet to see discernible improvement in policy environment. Therefore, despite improvement from previous months, industrial activity is likely to remain weak at ~4-5% in coming months.

How electronic payments work :: Business Line,

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National Electronic Fund Transfer (NEFT) and Electronic Clearing Systems (ECS) are both modes of electronic payments. But that is where the similarity ends. The two terms are often mixed up or not fully understood. Here's explaining the two routes of transferring funds online.

NEFT

Say, you owe your friend a good amount of money for booking flight tickets . Going to the ATM, drawing the cash, handing it over to your friend who in turn has to deposit it in her bank is an annoying exercise.
Instead, with your internet banking facilities, key in your friend's account and bank details, the amount to be transferred and sit back. Work's done and the maximum effort you've put in is to type the required details.
You have just executed an NEFT transaction. The NEFT system facilitates the transfer of funds from one account to another. Individuals or companies can use the NEFT system to move funds.
An amount as less as Rs 50 can be transferred through the system, and there is no maximum limit. Transfers cannot be made to overseas accounts except Nepal.
Contrary to popular belief, you don't require net-banking to use the NEFT system. Just walk into the bank with the cash and provide the required details. Here, however, only amounts of up to Rs 50,000 can be transferred.
In the NEFT system, transactions are bunched together and processed by a clearing centre operated by the Reserve Bank. Clearing is done every hour starting from nine in the morning and ending by seven. Saturdays have the last clearing at 1 pm.
This means that if you initiate a transaction at 11.08 in the morning, it will be up for clearance only at 12 noon. If you're on the receiving end of a transfer, you can usually expect a credit for transactions initiated up to 5 pm.
For those that were effected after 5 pm, amounts will be credited by some banks on the same day, but most definitely by the next day. Charges for making an NEFT transaction is a maximum of Rs 5 for the first Rs 1 lakh, Rs 15 from that till Rs 2 lakh and Rs 25 for amounts over Rs 2 lakh. Service tax is applicable on these amounts.
When there's talk of NEFT, there's also talk of RTGS. Expanding into Real Time Gross Settlement, RTGS differs from a NEFT transaction in that settlements between accounts are done on an individual basis.
They are not pooled and sorted. Amounts are credited into the receiver's account in a maximum of two hours. The starting amount for an RTGS transaction is Rs 2 lakh.

ECS

Let's move on to the next form of electronic payments. To illustrate, say you have a life insurance policy requiring a yearly premium of Rs 11, 220. To rid yourself of the danger that you forget the due date and skip a premium, you instruct your insurer to debit the premium from your account when it falls due.
That's a transaction under the ECS system. It is used by institutions to collect payments such as utility bills, insurance premia, loan instalments and so on or make payments such as interest and salaries.
Here, it isn't a one-to-one transaction as is the case with NEFT.
There's one institution which collects amounts from a number of accounts. When you use the system to make a payment, it is an ECS debit transaction and when you receive money it is an ECS credit transaction.
ECS debits and credits are initiated on your explicit instructions - it is necessary for the institution to collect the mandates. You can withdraw the ECS mandate at any time; a notice for it should be given at least two weeks in advance. You can also stipulate a maximum amount which can be debited from your account.
However, take care while giving the dates on which debits will be made from your account, making quite sure that there is sufficient money.
An ECS debit transaction falling through due to lack of funds on your part carries a fine. Given the range of dates for the various payments – phone, electricity, credit cards, insurance – and the single day on which salary is credited, managing ECS debits should be done carefully.
Charges for the ECS service are not regulated by the RBI. It is left entirely to the banks and institutions involved to levy fees and can therefore vary.

Indian Overseas Bank: TP: ` 122 Buy:: Dolat Cap

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Core, operating income lesser than expectation, higher provisioning
dents bottom-line
􀁊 In Q3 FY12, Indian Overseas Bank’s (IOB) NII grew 8% YoY to ` 12.2bn —
5% lesser than our estimate of ` 12.8bn. Operating profit grew merely by
2.3% YoY to ` 8.2bn, as against our estimate of ` 9.3bn. Much higher
provisioning dented bottom-line to ` 1.1bn compared to our estimate of `
3bn and consensus estimate of Rs 2.7bn.
􀁊 IOB reported higher business growth than expected; however, there was
decline in margin to 2.61% as against 3.27% in Q3 FY11 and 2.86% in Q2
FY12. Higher liabilities cost impacted core income as well as margins.
Non-interest income was below than our expectation due to lesser than
expected cash recoveries which restricted operating profit growth. An
unexpected drop in bottom-line came mainly due to the higher provisioning
for restructured accounts and investment depreciation.
􀁊 The gross slippage ratio decline on sequential basis to 2.36% from 3.7% in
Q2 FY12. Sequentially, NPL provisioning was lower, reflecting in the higher
net NPA ratio. Overall, the results were below than expectations on account
of lesser NII, cash recoveries and higher provisions.
􀁊 We reduce our earnings estimates by 19% and 7% for FY12 and FY13 and
reduce our Price target by 10% to ` 122. We reiterate our Buy rating on the
stock. At current price, it quotes at 0.6x ABV FY13.

Reliance Industries' bond issue may show the way to many others (ET)

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Encouraged by the response from foreign funds to Reliance Industries' 10-year $1-billion dollar-denominated bond offering, investment bankers predict more Indian corporates and banks to build a pipeline of bond offerings in the months to come through their overseas subsidiaries. "Someone has to set a benchmark, the pipeline is strong for bond offering from Indian banks and corporates," a banker who was involved in the fund-raising said. RIL's $1-billion bond offering was the first corporate bond offering from India in 2012 and first since August 2011. Bankers say banks with overseas branches and Indian companies who have made foreign acquisitions would queue up for raising funds. The transaction priced through RIL's secondary curve, was nearly eight times over-subscribed with an order book aggregating $7.8 billion. V Srikanth, joint chief financial officer of Reliance, in a statement, said: "The transaction was well executed despite the short time-window and a volatile global environment." Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Barclays Capital, Citigroup Global Markets Inc, HSBC and UBS AG, Singapore Branch acted as joint book runners and lead managers. "The notes have been priced at 345 basis points over the 10-year US treasury note, at a price of Rs 99.481 to yield 5.468%, according to an emailed statement from the company. The notes will be denominated in US dollars, and will bear fixed interest of 5.400% per annum, with interest payable half yearly. Reliance Holding USA Inc will apply the net proceeds to fund its ongoing capital expenditure, to make business investments, to refinance its existing debt and for general corporate purposes," it said.

Opto Circuits :Q3FY12 – Impressive growth in top line; but high tax outgo and interest pull down margins :GEPL

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Summary


At the CMP of Rs261, Opto Circuits is trading at 10.59x and 8.64x its consensus FY12E and FY13E earnings estimates. Although it has no comparable listed peer in India, Opto is cheaper on valuations compared to its global peers; viz., Medtronics, Boston Scientific and Johnson & Johnson.

Bank of Maharashtra to dilute 5% of its equity to LIC

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Bank of Maharashtra (BoM) will sell shares worth about Rs 100 crore to India's life insurance leader Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), diluting 5% of its equity that will help the public sector bank improve the capital position enabling it to lend more. The government-owned bank has decided to issue shares to LIC before the end of this fiscal. Post-share sale, LIC's stake in the bank will increase to more than 11%. Bank of Maharashtra's tier I capital - reserves and equity - is 7.6% and following infusion of capital by LIC it will cross 8% - the basic minimum that government desires in PSU banks. "We also expect the government to infuse Rs 860 crore in the bank sometime soon," said a bank official who did not want to be identified. Last year, the government had invested Rs 1,000 crore in the bank. Shares of BoM rose 2% to Rs 56 at the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). Widening fiscal deficit has prompted the government to approach LIC to invest in government-owned banks - a move which will help the government trim expenses and yet retain control over banks. The government had targeted fiscal deficit - difference between income and expenses - at 4.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) for the current fiscal, but many fear it would cross 5% as the government failed to raise money by way of divesting its stake holding in state-owned companies. Dena Bank was among the first bank to announce decision to dilute equity in favour of LIC. The insurance company would be acquiring a 5% stake for an investment of around Rs 125 crore and the transaction would be complete by end of this fiscal. LIC's stake in Dena Bank will increase to little over 11% after the bank issues shares on a preferential basis to the insurer. However, the government's stake would fall to 55%, which is below the 58% threshold limit they prefers to hold in state-owned banks.

Prestige Estate Projects: TP: INR126 Buy: Motilal oswal,

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 Prestige Estate Projects (PEPL) reported lower than expected standalone numbers for 3QFY12. Standalone
EBITDA declined 46% YoY to INR501m; EBITDA margin was 30% (v/s 38.4% in 2QFY12 and 23.4% in FY11).
Standalone revenue declined 54% YoY to INR1.7b, while PAT was INR281m (v/s INR544m in 3QFY11).
 Sales momentum remains strong at ~1msf (INR4.7b), though lower than ~2.1msf (INR7.8b) in 2QFY12. Sales
for 9MFY12 were 3.6msf (INR14.6b) as against management guidance of INR15b-17b and our estimate of
INR17b for FY12.
 Despite strong sales, revenue booking was subdued due to (a) non-commencement of revenue from White
Meadows and Tech Park III (management had earlier guided revenue recognition in 2HFY12), and (b) further
delay in getting completion certificate for Neptune Courtyard (expected completion in 3QFY12). No major
commercial leasing happened during 3QFY12 - rental income was INR399m v/s INR385m in 2QFY12.
 Consolidated net debt stood at INR14b (effective exposure of PEPL is INR12.1b) v/s INR13b in 2QFY12. Cost of
debt moderated to 13.5% (v/s 13.61% in 2QFY12).
 We believe that with its wider product presence and client base, PEPL would be a key beneficiary of the
outperforming Bangalore market. Key triggers for the stock: (a) improvement in customer collection and
debtors, (b) on-time monetization and execution of flagship projects such as Golfshire, Kingfisher Tower, etc,
and (c) acquisition of new turnkey projects.
 The stock trades at 8.8x FY13E EPS of INR8.8x FY13E BV, and at 51% discount to our NAV estimate. Maintain Buy.

Hold Ambuja Cement; Target : Rs 162 ::ICICI Securities, PDF link

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http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_AmbujaCement_Q4CY11.pdf


M a r g i n   i m p r o v e s   o n   h i g h e r   p r i c e s …
Ambuja Cement reported net sales of | 2329 crore (up 30% YoY, ~29%
QoQ), in line with our estimate of  | 2354 crore. However, the EBITDA
margin of 18.1% and PAT of | 302.4 were below our respective estimates
of 22.9% and | 344 crore on account of higher than expected input costs.
Total cost increased ~24% YoY (~12% QoQ) to | 3621/tonne (our
estimate: | 3277/tonne). However, realisations improved to | 4420/tonne
(~15% QoQ), which helped the EBITDA to grow ~29% QoQ to
| 799/tonne (our estimate: | 972/tonne). Cement volumes increased
during the quarter on demand pick-up post monsoon. We expect volume
growth of ~6% CAGR over CY11-13E to 23.6 million tonnes (MT) in
CY13E from 20.9 MT in CY11. We assume realisation growth of ~5% YoY
each in CY12E and CY13E. We estimate EBITDA/tonne of | 990 in CY12E
and | 1055 in CY13E against | 912/tonne in CY11.
ƒ Cement volume up ~5% YoY, realisation up ~24% YoY
Sales volumes increased ~5% YoY (~12% QoQ) to 5.3 MTPA in
Q4CY11 on account of a pick-up in demand during the quarter from
the construction activities post monsoon. Realisation improved
~24% YoY (~15% QoQ) to | 4420/tonne as cement prices were
hiked during the quarter on account of better demand.
ƒ EBITDA/tonne up ~28% YoY (~29% QoQ) on higher realisation
EBITDA/tonne increased ~28% YoY (~29% QoQ) to | 799/tonne as
the rise in realisation negated the impact of an increase in input
costs. Total cost increased ~24% YoY (~12% QoQ) to | 3621/tonne.
V a l u a t i o n
At the CMP of | 178, the stock is trading at 20.0x and 17.6x its CY12E and
CY13E earnings, respectively. The stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA of
10.6x and 8.9x CY12E and CY13E EBITDA, respectively. On an EV/tonne
basis, the stock is trading at $177 and $168 its CY12E and CY13E
capacities, respectively. We are assigning a HOLD rating to the stock with
a revised target price of | 162/share on the basis of valuation of
$150/tonne at CY13E capacity of 27.4 MTPA.

Glenmark Pharma :Strong quarter, but margins disappoint; we maintain a Buy:: Anand Rathi

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Glenmark reported better-than-estimated results in 3QFY12, led by
strong performances in the specialty and generics businesses and
licensing income of US$5m. However, the EBITDA margin in the base
business was 18% lower than estimated. We change our estimates to
factor in higher revenue from the US and semi-regulated markets, and
rising R&D expenditure. We maintain a Buy rating with a revised price
target of `376 (earlier `402).
 3QFY12 results. Revenue grew 37.3% yoy to `10.3bn vs our expectation
of `8.6bn, mainly led by strong growth in the US and semi-regulated
markets, and out-licensing income of US$5m. The base business
EBITDA margin declined 420bps yoy, to 18%, led by higher raw material
costs and R&D spend. Adjusted net profit grew 20.8% yoy, to `1.3bn, vs
our expectation of `1.1bn.
 Growth across segments. Segment-wise, specialty formulations grew
28.7% yoy, led by semi-regulated markets and Latin America, while
domestic formulations grew at a modest 11.3% yoy. The generics
segment grew a robust 45.3% yoy, led by strong 56.3% yoy growth in the
US and moderate growth in APIs.
 Revising estimates. We increase our revenue estimates for FY12-14, by
5-9%, to factor in higher licensing income, strong growth in US
formulations and the impact of currency fluctuations. However, we lower
our adjusted net profit estimates for FY13-14 by 2-4% due to rising R&D
spend that led to a lower EBITDA margin and higher interest cost.
 Valuation. We maintain a Buy rating with a revised price target of `376
based on 18x FY13e earnings (from `402 earlier). Of the `26 drop in
target price, `21 is due to the ongoing litigation pertaining to Crofelmer.
Risks: Regulatory hurdles and currency fluctuations.

HDFC Growth: Invest :: Business Line,

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ONGC: Uncertainty on subsidy sharing prevails ::Centrum

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Uncertainty on subsidy sharing prevails
As expected ONGC reported a weak set of numbers in Q3FY12 owing to higher
than expected subsidy burden of Rs125bn (about 38% sharing for upstream
during 9MFY12). Operationally however, crude and natural gas production
was largely in line. Earnings got boosted due to reversal of Rs31bn royalty
payment from Cairn for the period August 2009 till September 2012. We
believe there is still concern over ad-hoc subsidy sharing for upstream which
we assume will be higher at 44.5% for FY12E.
􀂁 Revenues decline due to higher subsidy outgo: ONGC reported Rs185.1bn
in revenues, a decline of 11.0% YoY and 19.2% QoQ due to the higher subsidy
burden. However, this included the component of entitlement for Royalty
paid for Cairn of Rs6.2bn.
􀂁 Crude production marginally down QoQ; gas production flattish: Crude
production declined marginally from 6.04mmt in Q2 to 5.96mmt in Q3 while
natural gas production remained fattish at 5.86bcm. Although crude
production is likely to remain flattish in near term, gas production could move
up with incremental production from marginal fields. Due to higher subsidy
burden the net realisation for Q3 declined to US$45.0/bbl from US$83.7/bbl in Q2.

Nifty at 6 month high Ø :: CSEC Research

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Nifty at 6 month high


Ø    Strong inflows from the FII’s guided the S&P CNX Nifty to cross 5,400 mark to close at six month high.

Ø    The BSE midcap and small cap posted higher gains than the benchmark indices.

Ø    Metal and Auto stocks witnessed renewed buying interest. Bajaj Auto gained 2 percent and remained as prominent gainers.

Ø    Shares of tyre companies’ witnessed buying interest. Apollo Tyres, CEAT, posted modest gains on account of Q3 numbers and capex plans..

Ø    Dishman Pharma surged 18 percent on the back of stellar Q3 numbers. The company posted a 10 fold jump in its consolidated net profit.

Outlook


Ø       U.S. stocks closed in green for third day in a row on the back of Greece austerity deal and positive jobless claims. The initial claims for jobless benefits dropped by 15,000 last week to 358,000. The four-week moving average fell to 366,250; it’s lowest since April 2008.

Ø       In today’s trade most of the Asian markets are trading in red and SGX Nifty is trading 23 pts lower, indicating a soft opening.

 
Regards,
CSEC Research