06 February 2012

Top Picks 2012 ::ICICI Securities (pdf link)

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Click here for PDF LINK ICICI Top PICKS



B e t   o n   q u a l i t  y   m i d c a p s   w i t h   b e t t e r   r i s k   r e t u r n   t r a d  e   o f f …
In December 2011, 4600 levels on the Nifty coupled with a |54 on the
exchange rate, the ongoing tough ground realities made the consensus
scary for a further slide on the indices as well as the exchange rate and
register new lows. But only variable, liquidity behaved strangely. This lead
to Indian markets posting their best ever January performance induced by
liquidity and reversal of risk on trade. While after a sharp jump the Indian
markets may consolidate over the next two or three months. Volatility is
likely to get amplified as the markets take cues from domestic events like
the outcome of polls in five states, Q3 GDP number and Budget 2012
(which may provide visibility on reforms). Also, the outcome of events in
the Euro area may add volatility to the markets till March 2012. Apart from
this, clarity on various macro headwinds such as monetary easing (given
the RBI has commenced the loosening process with the recent CRR cut),
direction of commodities and rollover of focus on FY13 earnings outlook
will act as key catalysts for the markets making a move ahead.
In such a scenario, we are recommending select large caps and midcaps
which offer better risk return trade off and should benefit from improved
macroeconomic condition and liquidity.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 06-Feb-2012

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 06-Feb-2012 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES868152319.58752482001.0152602414028.45318.57
INDEX OPTIONS60064915843.7359251615587.72137932436959.19256.02
STOCK FUTURES667631884.06686441945.0898379528056.00-61.02
STOCK OPTIONS26332750.4927102794.76440081274.11-44.27
      Total469.30


-- 

BSE, Bulk deals, 6/2/2012

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Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
6/2/2012512149Avance TechVORA FINANCIAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITEDB39915840.16
6/2/2012512149Avance TechSHRIRAM CREDIT COMPANY LIMITEDS73239030.16
6/2/2012531591Bampsl SecSATENDER KUMAR GOELB19000001.23
6/2/2012533469Birla Pacific MedspaSHREE SALASAR PROPERTIES AND FINANCE PRIVATE LIMITEDS10000007.45
6/2/2012512361Cupid TradesHINDVA ESTATE PRIVATE LIMITEDB12000182.05
6/2/2012512361Cupid TradesINVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES LTD.S12000182.05
6/2/2012526532Essen SuppABHA SULTANIAS4000059.40
6/2/2012531055GFLFINYOGESH BHOGILAL CHAUHANB4210035.33
6/2/2012531055GFLFINSANJAY AGARWALS7300035.40
6/2/2012532951GSS InfotechCHIRAAYUSH STOCK CONSULTANTS PRIVATE LIMITEDB52500057.09
6/2/2012532951GSS InfotechBHARGAV MAREPALLYS51000057.00

Liquidity led rally :: CSEC Research

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Liquidity led rally

The S&P CNX Nifty rallied on the back of strong inflow from the FII’s and better than expected PMI number. Indian bourses absorbed heavy inflow from the FII’s to the tune of Rs. 51,143 million while DII continued to maintain their selling stance as they sold shares worth Rs 23,760 million. The midcap space extended their multiple week winning streak as the midcap index posted nearly 4 percent gains for the week, beaten down realty topped amongst the sectoral indices by posting more than 4 percent gains. On, the macro front Reserve Bank of India intimated that India sold Rs 130 billion ($2.64 billion) of bonds and set a cut off price of Rs 98.29, yielding 8.18 percent on 7.83 percent bonds maturing in 2018.

In global arena, European markets outperformed the U.S markets on account of positive news flow regarding Greece debt talks. Meanwhile, U.S. markets surged during the fag end of the week as U.S. has added 243,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate dipped to 8.3% as nearly every sector of the economy added workers. Meanwhile, ISM manufacturing index for U.S rose to 54.1, the strongest reading for seven months. A reading above 50 implies expansion. In the Euro zone, Markit's purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 48.8, up from December's figure of 46.9.

Key macro data to lookout for this week are IIP numbers for the month of January and on the global front news flow from Greece regarding debt talk with private lenders will decided the trend of the market. Q3 numbers of M&M, Hindustan Unilever, GMR Infrastructure, Nalco, Bharti, Tata Steel, Hindalco are to be announced this week.

Regards,
CSEC Research

NSE, Bulk deals, 06-Feb-2012

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DateSymbolSecurity NameClient NameBuy / SellQuantity TradedTrade Price /
Wght. Avg.
Price
Remarks
06-Feb-2012ACROPETALAcropetal Tech LtdINDRAVARUN TRADE IMPEX PVT LTDBUY1,96,90113.35-
06-Feb-2012ACROPETALAcropetal Tech LtdINDRAVARUN TRADE IMPEX PVT LTDSELL1,96,90113.39-
06-Feb-2012ARSSINFRAARSS Infra Proj. LtdAJAY ASSET MANAGEMENT PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY75,250138.99-
06-Feb-2012ARSSINFRAARSS Infra Proj. LtdAJAY ASSET MANAGEMENT PRIVATE LIMITEDSELL49,030138.96-
06-Feb-2012DLINKINDIAD-Link India LtdARCADIA SHARE & STOCK BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDSELL2,00,00021.79-
06-Feb-2012DLINKINDIAD-Link India LtdKAUSHIK SHAH SHARES & SECURITIES PVT LTDBUY2,00,00021.79-
06-Feb-2012GATIGATI LimitedTHE INFRASTRUCTURE FUND OF INDIA LLC FDISELL6,85,00034.02-
06-Feb-2012IVRCLINFRAIVRCL LimitedARCADIA SHARE & STOCK BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY14,88,73957.64-
06-Feb-2012IVRCLINFRAIVRCL LimitedARCADIA SHARE & STOCK BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDSELL14,82,11357.67-
06-Feb-2012JINDALSWHLJindal SouthWest Hold LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY82,867712.79-
06-Feb-2012JINDALSWHLJindal SouthWest Hold LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL82,847713.84-
06-Feb-2012NCCNCC LimitedBEACON INDIA PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDBUY34,69,00362.69-
06-Feb-2012NCCNCC LimitedNORGES BANKSELL34,00,00062.70-
06-Feb-2012REFEXRefex Refrigerants LtdLIBRA TECHCON LIMITEDSELL1,70,0006.51-
06-Feb-2012SESHAPAPERSeshasaye Pap & BoardsORANGE MAURITIUS INVETMENTS LTDSELL2,85,715180.00-
06-Feb-2012SESHAPAPERSeshasaye Pap & BoardsPATEL BHARATBUY2,85,715180.00-
06-Feb-2012VIKASGLOBVikas GlobalOne LtdALANKIT FINSEC LTDSELL86,289140.37-
06-Feb-2012VIVIMEDLABVivimed Labs LimitedSHAH NIRAJ RAJNIKANTBUY7,111324.23-
06-Feb-2012VIVIMEDLABVivimed Labs LimitedSHAH NIRAJ RAJNIKANTSELL59,421322.13-

6/2/12: Categories Turnover (BSE) (Rs. crore) Clients NRI Proprietary Trade Data

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Categories Turnover (BSE)

(Rs. crore)
ClientsNRIProprietary
Trade DateBuySalesNetBuySalesNetBuySalesNet
6/2/122,107.912,132.13-24.222.052.33-0.27723.05716.506.55
3/2/121,897.231,933.86-36.631.120.830.28712.97646.5166.46
2/2/122,253.012,326.87-73.861.442.11-0.66917.63942.44-24.81
Feb , 128,493.5410,027.71-1,534.175.395.79-0.393,210.793,090.19120.60
Since 1/1/1243,425.9945,222.50-1,796.5022.3225.73-3.4115,207.5314,702.44505.09

6/2/12" FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE) (Rs. crore)

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FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE)
(Rs. crore)
FIIDII
Trade DateBuySalesNetBuySalesNet
6/2/123,512.462,514.52997.941,378.211,561.33-183.12

6 Feb: Stocks in News :: Edelweiss

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Stocks in News
GoM meeting on ATF import, FDI, AI on Thursday. (ET)
Allow foreign airlines 49% stake in local carriers : CII. (ET)
RIL to charge USD 0.15 marketing margin on CBM. (ET)
NMDC eyes four more mines abroad. (ET)
India, China plan fee to counter EU tax on airlines. (ET)
Cancel leases of 49 mines, says SC panel. (ET)
Biocon sees lower licence payment from foreign ally. (ET)
LIC may step in to Bail out small Govt banks. (ET)
GVK power plans to buy 2 thermal projects in AP. (ET)
GDF suez may join race for BG’s 65% in Guj Gas. (ET)
Tata Power’s 4,000 mw Mundra project may turn NPA. (BS)
2G auction may help fiscal situation. (BS)
Power ministry kicks off action plan to reform distribution. (BS)
Coal India, 2 others to infuse INR 14.6k cr. (BS)
Bhushan steel’s proposed INR 20,000 crore Bengal plant on hold. (BS)

6 Feb: Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
Bulls cemented their domination of the past on month as they took the index above the critical trend line resistance of 5290 with aplomb, paving the way for higher prices in the coming sessions. Markets opened on a flat note on Friday and continued to trade in a tight range, holding above the 5250 level, and as the closing hours neared, the bulls decided to take over the proceedings and managed to break above the 5290-5300 barrier and even maintain a close higher. This has helped the Nifty to its fifth consecutive weekly positive close, the best performance in many months. The indecision of the ‘doji’ candlestick pattern has been negated. Volumes were lower as compared to previous day and market breadth continues to moderate at 1.5:1. Despite Momentum oscillators are trading with initial negative divergence signals in the overbought territory, indicating the market will continue to be vulnerable to strong volatility; Nifty is likely to stretch gains towards 5350 / 5400. The 200 day MA at 5190 will be the key pivot for the ongoing uptrend.

Barring the high beta Metals index (-1.09%), all other sectoral indices ended the day in the green. The biggest gaining indices of the day were Realty (+2.15%), Healthcare (+1.69%), Power (+1.49%) and FMCG (+1.44%). The broader market Mid-cap and Small-cap indices ended the day with gains of 1.28% and 1.17% respectively, strongly outperforming the frontline benchmark.

Bullish Setups: JUBI, SESA, PFC, STLT, MM, ONGC
Bearish Setups:

HUDCO and L&T Infra Bonds

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A gentle reminder.....Last few days.....
 
1.  HUDCO Tax Free Bonds  - Issue closes on 10/02/2012
     -------------------------   ------------------------------ 
  • Retail investors - 8.22% for 10 years & 8.35% for 15 years - application size up to Rs.5 lacs.
  • Minimum Investment amount Rs.10,000/- and in multiples of Rs.1,000/-.
  • AA+ rating by FITCH & CARE.
2.  L&T Long Term Infrastructure Bonds  - Issue closes on 11/02/2012
     --------------------------------------    ------------------------------
  • 8.70% interest + tax saving up to Rs.6,180 u/s 80-CCF. 
  • Minimum Investment amount Rs.5,000/- and in multiples of Rs.1,000/-.
  • "CARE AA+" & "ICRA AA+" rating. 

Result Update: Mahindra Satyam, Ashok Leyland Ltd, Bhushan Steel, Hexaware Technologies, Corporation Bank, Prestige Estates Projects, Andhra Bank, TRF:: Emkay

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Result Update

Mahindra Satyam
Reco: HOLD
CMP: Rs 76
Target Price: Rs 80
Currency and other income drive profit beat
·      MSat reported another qtr of beat on op profits & net profits aided by weak currency ,other income, however composition of the numbers continues to disappoint us   
·      Rev at US$ 325 mn (-1.5% QoQ, flat in c.c terms) missed est and was weaker than peers. HC addition was somber for the 2nd qtr in a row with co adding <200 people during the qtr
·      Rev from US were down sharply by ~6% QoQ. Clients metrics performance mixed with good growth in top 10/20 clients, however no of US$ 10 mn+ clients declined QoQ by 5 to 30
·      While we cut our rev est (16/13% US$ YoY growth V/s 19/16% earlier), lower currency resets, Q3 beat drive 16/6%raise in FY12/13E EPS to Rs 8.5/8. HOLD, TP unchanged at Rs 80

Ashok Leyland Ltd
Reco: HOLD
CMP: Rs 27
Target Price: Rs 29
Changing product mix to impact margins
·      Results significantly below est. with Adj. EBIDTA at Rs 2.4bn (est.-Rs 2.9bn), APAT at Rs 979mn (est-Rs1.1bn)
·      Mgmt. expects industry growth at ~4-6% in FY13 with AL market share at ~25%. We factor in ~9% YoY for AL in FY13
·      Factor in Nissan LCV vols at 6,300/28,000 units in FY12/13. Lower EPS by 2.9%/2.7% in FY12/13 due to lower margins
·      Retain HOLD rating and lower our TP to Rs 29 (10x FY13 PER)