24 January 2012

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 24-Jan-2012

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 24-Jan-2012 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES1986345049.921917234865.2873800118892.25184.64
INDEX OPTIONS88807022408.1989924222676.94162660941683.43-268.76
STOCK FUTURES3301618661.213102238140.02112541930385.17521.19
STOCK OPTIONS33910842.4830479770.75539651484.0071.73
      Total508.81

 
 

-- 

Reliance Industries: A step in the right direction but size of the step important :: Kotak Securities

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Reliance Industries (RIL)
Energy
A step in the right direction but size of the step important. We would wait for
details (particularly, size and price) of RIL’s proposed buy-back program before forming
an opinion on the same. The key issue to focus on would be the reason behind the buyback
program—(1) price signal or (2) return of money to shareholders—and the size of
the program would provide more clarity on the same. We maintain our BUY rating
noting (1) attractive valuations at 9.2X FY2013E adjusted EPS (excluding treasury shares)
and (2) 19% potential upside to our SOTP-based target price of `925.

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES Tough quarter: Buyback a key positive:: Edelweiss

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Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) announced a buyback of 120mn shares (upto
INR870/share), signaling the management’s view on the stock’s undervaluation,
which we also endorse. The buyback will help distribute cash
to shareholders in a tax efficient way besides being accretive to earnings.
The Q3FY12 PAT of INR44.4bn was marginally lower than the estimated
INR45.11bn due to lower GRMs at USD6.8/bbl (expected USD7.25/bbl).
RIL has received approval for development plan for satellite fields (four
discoveries) which we see as a positive (at least the regulatory machinery
has started moving). We are moderately positive on the refining segment
as the net increase in capacities in CY12 is expected to lag incremental
demand. Maintain ‘BUY’.
Average gas output at 41.9 mmscmd in Q3FY12, exit rate at ~38
Production continued to decline from KG‐D6 during Q3FY12 and was down by 3.3
mmsmcd sequentially to 41.9 mmscmd. Considering the fall in output, we have
reduced our FY12E/FY13E gas production estimate to 43.0/36.5 mmscmd against
44.2/39.0 mmscmd projected earlier. We believe that the Q3FY12 exit rate for gas was
~38.0 mmscmd.
GRMs disappoint at USD6.8/bbl, petchem volume down QoQ
At USD6.8/bbl (down USD3.3/bbl QoQ), GRM was below our estimate of USD7.3/bbl
while the throughput of 17.2 mt (up 1% QoQ) was modestly ahead of our estimate (the
highest ever). Petchem volume decreased by 0.2 mt QoQ to average 5.5 mt. The
average petchem EBITDA of USD153/mt was lower by 20% QoQ primarily due to lower
polyester intermediate and PTA/MEG margins.
Outlook and valuations: Buyback a key positive; maintain ‘BUY’
We are rolling over our SOTP to March‐13 from March‐12 earlier. However, we are
now valuing RIL’s refining business at 6.0x EV/EBITDA against 6.5x earlier mainly due to
slowdown in world crude demand. We now arrive at a SOTP of INR1,081/share for
Mar‐13. We maintain our ‘BUY/Sector Outperformer’ recommendation/rating on the
stock. At CMP of INR793, RIL is trading at 6.6x EV/EBITDA and 11.5x P/E on FY13
estimates.

Buy Titan Industries ; Target :Rs 235 :ICICI Securities,

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D u t y   h i k e   t o   b e   p a s s e d   o n …
The government has revised the import duty levied on gold and changed
it from a flat | 300/10 gm to 2% of the value. While this move will mean
increased revenues for the government, the customer will also have to
shell out more money for the gold purchased. From the company’s
perspective, we do not see any significant impact on the operating
margin or the profitability front as the incremental cost will be passed on
to customers. Titan may witness some pressure on volumes on the back
of increased prices. However, we  do not believe the impact will be
significant. While we have conducted a sensitivity analysis to gauge the
impact of the revised duty, we have not revised our estimates as we await
further clarity on the same. We will review the numbers after a detailed
interaction with the management post the Q3FY12 results.
Change in import duty regime of precious metals
The import duty on gold has been changed to 2% of the value of gold
imported from the earlier flat rate of | 300/10 gm. Similarly, for silver the
customs duty has been increased from a flat charge of | 1500/kg to 6% of
the value of imports.
Negligible impact on profitability
We do not expect any significant impact on the back of the changed duty
structure. The company’s volumes may be marginally impacted
(negatively) as consumers may hold back buying decisions due to higher
prices. We have conducted a sensitivity analysis (refer exhibit 2) to gauge
the impact on earnings if volumes dip on account of the price hike arising
due to passing on of the import duty. Based on the various scenarios
assumed, our earnings estimates could get negatively impacted in the
range of 1.5 – 7.3%, if volumes dip.
V a l u a t i o n
Titan has historically traded at a one year forward P/E multiple of 25.0x
and is currently trading at 23.5x FY13E EPS. We believe the current price
discounts the concerns with regard to lower growth as compared to FY11
and also weaker consumer sentiment. We maintain our BUY rating on the
stock with a target price of | 235 (30x FY13E EPS)

BAJAJ AUTO Margins expand on exports:: Edelweiss

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Bajaj Auto reported adj PAT of INR8.3bn (25%YoY, 5.6% QoQ growth),
marginally ahead of our estimates. As expected, INR depreciation and
higher contribution from exports led to a 100bps sequential improvement
in both gross and EBITDA margins to 29.6% and 21% respectively. The
management has scheduled an earnings concall on 20th January 2012 at
13:30 IST. Key things to watch out for are: (1) the management guidance
on exports, (2) clarity on hedging rates and (3) new launches. We will
revisit our financial forecasts post the earnings concall.
Q3 slightly better than expectations
Net sales at INR50.6bn (21.2% YoY, ‐4% QoQ) were largely in line with our expectations.
The average realization growth of 3.8% QoQ was primarily driven by a 9% QoQ growth
in (average) exports realization, largely due to price hikes, improvement in product mix
and depreciating INR. As a result, the overall EBITDA margin of the company expanded
90bps on a sequential basis. So far, the benefit of softening input costs has not accrued
to the company. Total adj PAT at INR8.3bn was marginally ahead of ours and consensus
expectations. Other highlights during the quarter were: (1) lower MTM losses on forex
hedges at INR588m vs INR954m in Q2FY12, (2) delay in receiving VAT refunds and (3)
lower addition to cash balance. We would get more clarity on these during the earnings
call tomorrow.
All eyes on exports, new launches in domestic market
Management guidance on exports volume growth and forex contracts is key to watch
out for in the call. Given the sluggishness in domestic demand, we expect new Pulsar
and new Discover launch to be major events in the next two quarters for the company.
Outlook and valuations
We have been positive on Bajaj Auto due to its presence in export markets which is
paying off quite well. Currently we have a ‘BUY/SO’ recommendation/rating on the
stock. We will revisit our financial forecast post the earnings call tomorrow.

FT India Feeder Franklin US Opportunities - A piece of Wall Street ::Business Line

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For investors looking at opportunities in the US markets, taking the fund route may be a good choice if you wish to avoid dealing with foreign currencies. Currently, MOSt Shares Nasdaq ETF is one such choice.
Franklin Templeton India, through its new fund — FT India Feeder Franklin US Opportunities (FT India Feeder) — offers an Indian route to own US stocks through its actively-managed parent fund.

THE FUND

FT India Feeder will be a passively-managed fund that will invest your money in Franklin US Opportunities, a fund that invests in US growth stocks. The fund differs substantially from the exchange-traded fund offered by Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund on two counts.
One, MOSt Shares Nasdaq 100 ETF is a passive fund that will mirror the Nasdaq-100. This is an index tilted in favour of the technology sector.
Franklin US Opportunities, in contrast, has flexibility to invest across stocks in the US market, with the Russell 3000 index as a benchmark. The fund, therefore, takes exposure to technology plays such as Apple Inc or Qualcomm, industrial players such as Precision Cast Parts Corp, unique financial plays such as Blackrock Inc or chemical product maker Celanese Corp.
The parent fund, Franklin US Opportunities, was launched in 2000, and has 60-80 stocks in its portfolio.
Software, technology hardware, energy and capital goods were some of the top sectors in the portfolio as of December 2011.

WHAT THE US CAN OFFER

While Indian markets may, in the long run, continue to deliver superior returns, there are benefits of diversifying into markets such as the US.
The US markets offer diversification into businesses and industries that aren't too common in the Indian listed space. It also offers multinational stocks at less-demanding valuations, compared with the Indian market.
The notion that US markets deliver poor returns has also been disproved in the last three years, going by returns from the broad US market.
With companies in indices, such as the S&P 500, deriving close to 50 per cent of their revenues from outside of the US, the performance of these stocks isn't entirely dependent on the US economy.
The downside of investing abroad through the fund route is that your investments will be subject to currency fluctuation. An appreciation in the rupee against the dollar, for instance, can reduce returns in rupee terms for you. FT Feeder's NAV will be adjusted for such movements.

RETURNS AND VALUATIONS

The Russell 3000 index, a broad market index representing the 3,000 largest companies in the US, and 98 per cent of listed equities there, returned 21.4 per cent compounded annually (in rupee terms) in the last three years. That's superior to the 17 per cent annual return of the BSE 500, and similar to the Indian equity mutual fund category average of 21 per cent.
The FT US Opportunities fund delivered a slightly higher return of 22.5 per cent during this period. During five years, the fund's return of 7.6 per cent annually, is superior to the category average of equity funds in India. You should however, not expect this fund to beat well-managed Indian funds, especially when Indian markets and the economy pick up.
The Russell 3000's price earnings, at 15 times trailing earnings, isn't cheap. The fund, too, may be holding a pricey portfolio. However, given that it is targeting growth stocks, such premium may be inevitable.
Mr Roshi Jain will be the fund manager for the FT Feeder fund in India. The new fund offer closes on January 31.

Company Update Aban Offshore Reco: ACCUMULATE : Target Price: Rs 485 ::Emkay

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Company Update

Aban Offshore
Reco: ACCUMULATE
CMP: Rs 440
Target Price: Rs 485
Bond redemption comes at a steep cost
·      Aban redeems bonds worth $160 mn - financed through internal accruals (USD40 mn) & fresh bond issue (USD120mn) Coupon rate at 12% significantly higher than estimates of 9%
·      Aban’s next repayment obligation of USD157 due in Mar-12 could also be on similar lines – Downgrade FY13 EPS by 11.4%
·      Though Aban boasts of contracted revenue backlog of ~$1.9 bn over FY12-15E, revenue visibility stands at 65% for FY13 as 6 jack up rigs are due for contrat renewal in H2FY13
·      Lower target to Rs485 (Rs522 earlier) led by the earnings downgrade. We also lower rating from BUY to ACCUMULATE led by sharp 30%+ run up in the stock price

WIPRO Growth acceleration awaited:: Edelweiss

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Wipro’s revenues and net profits surpassed estimates marginally. It
reported a 4.5% QoQ growth (in constant currency) in IT services business.
While the constant currency growth was in-line with peers - Infosys and
TCS - the volume growth at 1.8% remained weak. The beat came primarily
on account of realization improvement QoQ (4.3% onsite, 3.6% offshore)
that scaled back from the decline in earlier quarter. We note that on a liketo-
like basis, pricing remained flat. While the guidance for Q4FY12 of 1%-
3% growth is better than Infosys’ flat guidance it belies expectation of an
improvement in growth trajectory (4.5% cc growth in Q3). At P/E of 15.3x
FY13, Wipro is trading at par with Infosys and at 30%+ premium to HCLT,
offering limited upside potential. We maintain ‘HOLD’ but prefer HCLT.
Operating margin improvement to lag peers
Wipro’s IT services operating margins (EBIT) improved by only 80bps QoQ at 20.8%,
impacted by its cash flow hedging loss (excluding which, it improved 270bps). Further,
margin benefit from realization improvement was offset by a utilization drop of 300bps
and higher S&M costs, leading to a lower than expected margin performance. We note
that the benefit of weak rupee will flow in with a lag of 3-4 quarters for Wipro given its
policy of cash flow hedge accounting.
Focus area of client engagement makes progress
Historically, Wipro’s large account management has been a weak area that has been
receiving major attention in its new strategy. Investments in changing the client facing
team, direct account responsibility and rigorous monitoring are showing gradual
results. It has seen an increase of four clients in USD50mn+ revenue range and five in
the USD100mn+ range, YoY.
Outlook and valuations: Limited upside; maintain ‘HOLD’
Wipro has outperformed the IT index by over 12% in the past two months in
anticipation of its growth tracking peers. However, rather than an improvement in its
growth, it is the deceleration of peers that is leading to its performance at par with
them. This limits any upward re-rating in the stock. We maintain our ‘HOLD’ rating with
target of INR405.

Reduce HINDUSTAN UNILEVER:: TARGET PRICE: RS.379:: Kotak Sec

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HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LIMITED (HUL)
PRICE: RS.391 RECOMMENDATION: REDUCE
TARGET PRICE: RS.379 FY13E P/E: 26.8X
HUL's strong price performance in recent quarters has been backed by
earnings performance in a challenging economic environment. Several
positives for near-term earnings remain - expect competitive intensity to
remain contained, and expect HUL's brand investments to help industryoutperformance
on the topline. Going into FY13, however, we believe
pricing as well as volume growth shall be under pressure (given high base),
and structural issues shall dominate the determination of revenue growth.
Near-term, HUL profits may face headwinds of a weaker rupee, with
continued strain on gross margins, and levers of A&P spends are limited.
Valuations enjoyed by HUL at CMP are, in our opinion, aggressive, and take
for granted long-term positives for the company, in categories where
competitive dynamics are less than apparent at the present stage. Earnings
disappointments may be met with meaningful compression in multiples,
while upsides are contained. REDUCE, with a one-year (Jan, 2013) price
target of Rs.379.
q On a rebound: After a decade of underperforming peers, HUL seems to be hitting
the right notes, on both topline and the bottom-line. The company has surprised
the street positively in recent quarters in volume growth as well as margins;
earnings estimates have therefore seen upward revisions and valuations
have seen expansion.

Hold Hero MotoCorp; Target :Rs 1824 :ICICI Securities,

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G r o w t h   o u t l o o k   c l o u d e d ,   P E G   t o o   h i g h…
Hero MotoCorp Ltd (HMCL) reported Q3FY12 numbers, which were
above our estimates with net sales at | 5983.6 crore (I-direct estimate: |
5913.6 crore), a 16.9% YoY and 3.4% QOQ jump. The volumes grew
11.3% YoY and 2.9% QoQ to 1.59 million units. Realisations on a per unit
basis jumped 0.4% QoQ at | 40,287. EBITDA margins reported were in
line with our estimates at 15.8% (down ~10 bps QoQ) as the benefits of
lower input costs were taken away due to rupee depreciation. The
depreciation rose to | 298.6 crore in the wake of higher royalty payment
(~| 228 crore) and increased normal depreciation with de-bottlenecking
of capacity. The PAT, thus, came slightly below our estimates at | 613.0
crore (I-direct estimate: | 627.4 crore) (up ~42.9% YoY) as Q3FY11
witnessed some exceptional charges above and below the EBITDA line.
Highlights of the quarter
HMCL had a relatively superior volume growth in comparison to the twowheeler industry with 11.3% rise at 1.59 million units. It gained 100 bps in
terms of market share at ~56% YoY in the domestic market. The
management has highlighted the fact that some early signs of weakness
seems to be evident in certain pockets of the industry. The capacity
expansion remains on track and is expected to touch 7.0 million units by
March 2012. The management also guided on the fact that its entry into
newer exports markets of Africa is imminent in as early as Q2FY13E. The
royalty amortisation outgo has rise to ~| 228 crore (| 205 crore in
Q2FY12) due to currency fluctuations. The quarter also marked HMCL
showcasing two new launches in the scooter segment in the auto-expo.
V a l u a t i o n
As stated in earlier reports, we remain jittery on high multiples and see
that the “growth premium” being assigned by the market is now highly
uncertain to HMCL. At the CMP of | 1946, it is trading at 16.2x FY12E EPS
of | 120.3, 14.9x FY13E EPS of | 130.3 and the PEG ratio of ~1.4x remains
high. Thus, we have cut our target multiple and valued it at 14.0x FY13E
EPS to arrive at a target price of | 1830 with a HOLD rating on the stock.

Jindal Steel & Power :: TP: INR636 Buy :: Motilal oswal,

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 Consolidated adjusted PAT grew 4% YoY to INR10.2b, below our estimate of INR11b. Reported consolidated
PAT was INR9.96b, which included an exceptional gain of INR259m and forex loss of INR500m. JSPL has not
adopted the new guidelines for amortization of forex loss over a longer period.
 Jindal Power's revenue and PAT for the quarter were higher than we had estimated - at INR8b and INR4.8b,
respectively. Power generation was 2,255mkwh at PLF of 102%. Power rate is estimated at INR3.94/kwh.
 Two captive units of 135MW have been commissioned at Dongamahua, Chhattisgarh in January 2012. Also,
these units have received open access permissions to sell power at merchant rates. Merchant tariffs are
likely to be >INR4/kwh, while the cost is ~INR2.2/kwh. The improved margins and higher volumes are likely
to drive earnings.
 Power rates on surplus power sales to Odisha state from the 270MW CPP have been revised upwards by
INR0.3/kwh to INR3.05/kwh.
 Steel production during the quarter was a record 757k tons although sales were down 1% QoQ to 591k tons.
Steel inventories built as of December 2011 have since been liquidated at higher realizations. We expect
steel sales volumes to be higher and margins to be superior in 4QFY12.
 Earnings growth is likely to moderate post 4QFY12 due to delays in the Angul steel and coal mine projects. We
are cutting our EPS estimate for FY13 by 9% to INR49.9. Earnings are likely to grow 12.6% in FY13. The stock
trades at 10.4x FY13E EPS. Maintain Buy.

ACCUMULATE SIEMENS ; TARGET PRICE: RS.740 ::Kotak Sec,

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SIEMENS INDIA LTD
PRICE: RS.721 RECOMMENDATION: ACCUMULATE
TARGET PRICE: RS.740 FY12E P/E: 24.7X
q Siemens reported moderate order inflows in FY11 due to sluggish investment
climate in the domestic market. However, company maintains sanguine
long term outlook on Indian infrastructure space.
q Revenues grew by 28% in FY11 aided by Energy segment; EBITDA margins
contracted on account of increase in input prices and incurred forex
losses.
q Company maintained its leadership position in energy segment despite
increasing competition in the industry; Industry segment reported meaningful
growth in order intake on back of its healthy mix of short-cycle
product business.
q We tweak our earnings estimate for FY12 as growth in Power T&D sector
remains remained elusive. We believe that the sector has been negatively
affected by increasing interest rate trend and delays in the commissioning
of power projects.
q In view of inadequate upside due to rich valuations, we maintain Accumulate
with a DCF based revised price target of Rs 740 (Rs 780 earlier).
Order book growth remained muted in FY11 due to sluggish economic
activity; industry and healthcare segment reported meaningful
traction
n Company reported closing order book at Rs 139 bn down 7% YoY at the end of
FY11 implying twelve month business visibility. Order intake in FY11 remained
flat at Rs 123 bn vis-à-vis Rs 124 bn in FY10.
n Management has highlighted that currently capex outlook in private sector looks
subdued. However, company maintains its sanguine long term outlook on all the
segments including energy and healthcare division.
n In FY11, Industry segment reported order intake growth of 35% YoY at Rs 52.9
bn translating into the sales of Rs 46 bn. Energy segment reported 24% YoY degrowth
in new order intake at Rs 58.2 bn and healthcare division observed 44%
YoY growth in order intake at Rs 11.2 bn.
n We believe that the company is reasonably poised to benefit from any recovery
in the overall infrastructure spending by the public and private sector. While the
healthcare division is likely to report resilient demand, growth in energy and industry
division would be sensitive to the economic revival.
n We believe that the company is likely to report traction in drive technologies and
building technologies going ahead. We also believe that it would report reasonable
growth in healthcare division in future. In our projections, we therefore build
order intake of Rs 14 bn for FY12E.

HCL Technologies: Rupee to the rescue:: Kotak Sec,

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HCL Technologies (HCLT)
Technology
Rupee to the rescue. HCLT exceeded our net income estimate on 2.5% EBITDA beat
and lower-than-expected tax rate. Revenues grew in line with our estimate though
lower than peers for the second consecutive quarter. This performance is consistent
with our view that the HCLT story is either revenue growth or margin but not both.
We cut our US$ revenue growth estimate for FY2012-14E by 2.5-3.5% though our EPS
estimates increase by 2.6-4.7% due to change in Re/US$ assumptions. Maintain
REDUCE rating with target price of Rs460/share (Rs450 earlier).

Infosys: Attractively valued, especially on a relative basis:: Kotak Sec

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Infosys (INFO)
Technology
Attractively valued, especially on a relative basis. Even as the absolute performance
of the Indian IT services sector will be driven by how FY2013E volume/pricing dynamics
shape up and how the Rupee moves versus the USD, we highlight intra-sector valuation
dynamics of Infosys versus the two other large peers, Wipro and TCS. Infosys, at par
with Wipro and at a 15% discount to TCS on FY2012E EV/EBITDA (similar or worse on
FY2013E), appears attractively valued on a relative basis. We reiterate BUY.

Pratibha Industries: Buy ::Business Line

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 A steady increase in order pipeline, an established presence in construction of water and sanitation works and building projects, and the ability to forge partnerships for high-value projects make construction contractor Pratibha Industries a good buy.
At Rs 41, the stock trades at 5.4 times the trailing 12-month earnings and 3.9 times the estimated earnings for FY-13. Investors with a two-three year perspective can buy the stock. Given its small capitalisation, investors are advised against investing heavily in the stock.

ROSY ORDER PICTURE

Unlike many peers, the order pipeline for Pratibha has not dried up. The company operates predominantly in the water and sanitation segment for State governments and municipalities and does not have an exposure to beleaguered segments such as roads. Operating cash flows have been healthy on the back of timely execution and steady order inflow.
In the first nine months of this fiscal, the company secured Rs 3,350 crore in new orders, to catapult its order book to Rs 6,568 crore. The average order execution period is 24-36 months while the order book is 5.2 times revenues of 2010-11, providing earnings visibility over the medium term.
It has also moved overseas, executing a water project in Dubai. While the West Asian region may not be forthcoming in orders in the near term, international exposure will help Pratibha secure orders from other promising regions such as Africa.
Geographically too, the order book is fairly well-diversified. Hitherto a contractor for construction of projects, Pratibha has stepped into the developer mode, although in a small way. It has one road project on an annuity basis, and a multi-level car park from Delhi Metro Rail Corp. Given the competition that abounds in smaller road projects, projects such as operating a multi-level car park holds more promise.
About 64 per cent of the order book is from water management and other urban infrastructure, while the balance is from buildings.

STRENGTH IN PARTNERSHIPS

While the size of most orders ranges between Rs 100 and Rs 360 crore, Pratibha has teamed up with other players to qualify for larger projects. For instance, in the current fiscal, it won Rs 1,249 crore in orders from the Delhi Jal Board with a Russian infrastructure company. This order also calls for maintenance of the sewer system to be constructed for a period of 11 years. Besides providing a regular revenue stream, it could mean further such maintenance contracts for the company.
In other partnerships to secure big-ticket orders, it partnered China Rail First Group for underground tunnelling and station work from the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation. The company has previously partnered infrastructure majors such as Gammon.

MARGINS MAINTAINED

Consolidated revenue over the past three years has grown at a compounded annual rate of 31 per cent. Net profits in the same period have grown 27 per cent. For the half-year ended September '11, the company grew consolidated revenues by 19 per cent and net profits by 17 per cent to Rs 696 crore and Rs 35 crore.
An improving working capital cycle has helped maintain margins at 13-15 per cent over the past several quarters. The company has backward integration with the manufacture of saw pipes. It, however, plans to sell this division, which could tell on operating margins in the coming quarters. Still, since it plans to use the sales proceeds to retire debt, net margins, hovering around 5 per cent, could improve.
Consolidated debt, as of end-September, stands at Rs 768 crore. A limited number of development projects have also helped the company avoid heavy debt for initial investments, as has been the case with a few other peers. Consolidated debt-equity of the company stands at a manageable 1.1 times.

Hold Automotive Axle; Target : Rs 444 :ICICI Securities,

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E x p e c t a t i o n s   s u r p a s s e d ;  o u t l o o k   c a u t i o u s ! ! !
Automotive Axle (AAL) announced its Q1SY12 results, which were
above our estimates. The topline surpassed our expectations clocking |
292.6 crore (up 4.1% QoQ) vs. our flat expectations (I-direct estimate: |
267.5 crore). The company witnessed a strong rebound on the EBITDA
margin front with margins shooting up ~372 bps QoQ to 12.7%.
However, we attribute the jump in margins to higher consumption of
finished goods inventory during the quarter, which is reflected in stock
adjustment to the tune  of |  9.8 crore. Adjusting for this, the margins
came in line with our estimates at  9.3%. RM cost as a proportion of
sales dipped ~374 bps sequentially with employee and other expenses
hovering at similar levels. The company reported PAT of  |  19.7 crore
reflecting a 69.3% QoQ and 102.0% YoY leap.
ƒ Key highlights for the quarter
The company reported a commendable sequential rise in topline despite
its key clients like Tata Motors (down 0.6% QoQ) and Ashok Leyland
(down 12.9% QoQ) posting sequential de-growth in the M&HCV category.
The revenue rise can be attributed to a combination of better product mix
coupled with robust sales from the recently purchased brake
manufacturing facilities at Mysore  from Kalyani Global Engineering Pvt
Ltd. AAL currently caters to ~10% (Tata Motors) and ~70% (Ashok
Leyland) requirements in terms of axle housings. The margins surprised
positively. However, our outlook remains cautious and we would wait to
see if margin expansion pans out in the coming few quarters.
V a l u a t i o n
The domestic commercial vehicle segment has shown stiff resistance to
relentless macros and has grown 19.3% YTD. Going ahead, interest rate
cuts by the RBI could be a positive trigger. However, we remain cautious
on the margin expansion front. At the CMP of | 419, the stock is trading at
9.8x SY12E EPS of | 42.7 and 6.6x SY13E EPS of | 63.4. We have valued
the stock at 7x SY13E EPS of | 63.4 to arrive at target price of | 444
implying a 6% potential upside. We have a HOLD rating on the stock.

F&O Expiry and RBI meet takes centre stage :: CSEC Research

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F&O Expiry and RBI meet takes centre stage

Indian bourses extended their gains for the third week in a row mirroring its global peers on account of positive global and domestic macro economic data. Oil & Gas, banking, infra and realty indices spooked the S&P CNX Nifty and the BSE Index to close above 5000 and 16,700 mark. The volumes were in the higher side when compared to previous week, the FII bought shares worth of Rs 37,053 million and DII continued to sell their holdings worth of Rs. 21,098 million. Amongst the Nifty gainers list ADAG shares rallied, mart gained on the back of prove hike of its vehicles. M&M topped the Nifty losers list. On the macro front The Wholesale Price Index-based food inflation remained in the negative zone for the third week in the row, at (-) 0.42 per cent for the week ended January 7. It was above 16 per cent in the corresponding week last year and (-) 2.9 per cent in the previous week. Indian government has raised import and excise duties on gold and silver. The new rates (on ad valorem basis) — two per cent on 10 gm gold and six per cent on one kg silver — mean that importers will have to pay double the duty. Similarly, excise duty has been hiked to 1.5 per cent per 10 gm for gold and four per cent per kg for silver.

The upcoming week is likely to be volatile ahead of RBI meet on Tuesday followed by F&O expiry on Wednesday. Rate sensitives will be focus ahead of this meet. Meanwhile, Stock specific action is likely to be witnessed on account of Q3 numbers. L&T, Maruti Suzuki India, Sterlite Industries (India), Idea Cellular, GAIL (India) and Kotak Mahindra Bank, Cairn India will unveil their Q3 numbers this week. Many of the Asian markets are likely to remain closed for the week on account of Lunar New year holidays.

Regards,
CSEC Research

Hero Motocorp: 3QFY12 profitability impacted by adverse product mix :: Kotak Securities

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Hero Motocorp (HMCL)
Automobiles
3QFY12 profitability impacted by adverse product mix. Hero Motocorp reported a
profit after tax of Rs6,130 mn (+26% yoy, +2% qoq), which was 4% below our
estimates. EBITDA of Rs7,230 mn was 4% below our estimates, impacted by higherthan-
expected deterioration in product mix. Raw material expenses declined during the
quarter but were offset by inferior product mix and higher royalty expenses due to
sharp appreciation of Yen versus Rupee. We maintain our SELL rating on the stock.

Energy: Watch out for collateral damage: :: Kotak Sec

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Energy
India
Watch out for collateral damage. We see a modest impact on the earnings of GAIL
and RIL from potential regulation of marketing margins by the PNGRB on sale of natural
gas. However, we see significant risks to the earnings of PLNG and city gas distribution
companies (Indraprastha Gas and Gujarat Gas) if PNGRB’s mandate is extended to
re-gasification or distribution tariffs. We would wait for finalization of marketing
margins by PNGRB before reviewing our earnings estimates of GAIL and RIL. We would
exit PLNG and gas distribution companies noting their rich valuations and bullish market
expectations of their earnings and prospects.

24 Jan: Watch Nifty Ø IFCI research,

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Watch Nifty
Ø  Nifty ended below the intraday key resistance level of 5065 on Monday due to lack of buying support among traders. NIFTY closed with ‘short white candlestick pattern’ with low volumes on the daily chart indicating that uncertainty among traders. On the higher side, if NIFTY breaks above 5065, bulls may be gaining control in an intraday trading session and then we could see 5100/5140 levels. On the downside, the intraday support for the NIFTY is seen at 5005/4990 levels. Breakout of 4990 levels would invite intraday selling pressure. On the momentum indicators front, the stochastic oscillators are in heavily overbought territory. So trade cautiously as profit booking can be expected at any time. On weekly chart, NIFTY has been formed rounding bottom reversal pattern since second week of December 2011. This indicates the short term trend will continue to hold on the buyers region only if NIFTY holds above 5100 levels on weekly closing basis. This short term uptrend could get damaged if NIFTY breaks 4830/4790 on weekly closing basis. Technically, a move below 4790 could lead to a fresh directional move in the same direction and it could test at 4710 levels.
 
Have strict stop losses

TCS : Key takeaways from post-3QFY12 fund manager meet. :: Kotak Securities

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TCS (TCS)
Technology
Key takeaways from post-3QFY12 fund manager meet. We hosted TCS’ post-
3QFY12 fund manager meet. Management categorically stated that its 3QFY12
earnings call commentary on delays in some discretionary project starts should not be
construed as an indicator of a structural slowdown or a weak FY2013E. Among other
takeaways – (1) no slowdown indicators in the BFSI vertical, (2) situation today is
markedly different from post-Lehman scenario at end-CY2008 and not too different
from end-CY2009 and end-CY2010 barring some increased due diligence on
discretionary projects, and (3) offshoring acceptance in EU has increased substantially.

ITC Headline numbers strong; cigarette volume below par:: Edelweiss

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ITC’s Q3FY12 numbers came in line with our sales and PAT estimates. Key
positives were YoY margin expansion in four out of five businesses (only
agri business margin remained flat, Cig margins were the highest in the
past 19 quarters), sales growth in FMCG (19% YoY in Q2FY12 vs. ~25% YoY
in Q3FY12) and sharp loss reduction in FMCG. Key negatives were a mere
~5% growth YoY in cigarette volumes (our estimate 6%) on a base of 2%
growth in Q3FY11 (8% volume growth in Q1FY12 and Q2FY12 on a lower
base of ‐3.5% and ‐0.8% respectively) and slower growth in agri business
(10% YoY in Q3FY12 versus 13% in Q2FY12). We will closely track the
cigarette volume growth and anticipate forthcoming Union Budget to be
harsh on cigarettes; we expect the stock to be range bound till then.
Maintain ‘BUY’ from long‐term perspective.
Stellar growth continues though cigarette volumes dip
ITC’s net revenue surged 14.2% YoY to ~INR62bn in Q3FY12. Its cig gross sales grew ~11%
as volumes disappointed with ~5% growth. Backed by improving profitability in the
packaged food business, FMCG losses dipped 36.4% YoY with 24.5% rise in sales and
326bps expansion in margin YoY. Hotels business sales remained flat (up 2.6%) while
profits increased 14.8% led by 348bps YoY margin improvement. Paper segment’s
performance was robust with profit and sales rising 12.4% and 17.2% YoY, respectively.
Agri business was the only laggard with sales and profit up 9.8% YoY.
Dip in COGS boosts EBIDTA margin; PAT in line with estimate
The company’s EBITDA margin expanded 128bps YoY on account of 205bps decline in
COGS, led by calibrated price hikes to counter rise in VAT rates in various states. PAT
grew 22.5% YoY to ~INR17bn (in line with our estimate).
Outlook and valuations: Positive; maintain ‘BUY’
We anticipate the forthcoming Union Budget to be harsh on cigarettes as a sharp excise
hike seems imminent. We are enthused by ITC’s plan to enter dairy and other consumer
segments. Also, it is gaining traction in non‐cigarettes businesses, making it a well
diversified growth company. Currently, it is trading at 25.6x and 22.3x FY12E and FY13E
EPS, respectively. We maintain ‘BUY/Sector Outperformer’