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03 April 2012

Mumbai Real Estate Recovery still some time away ::PL Research

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􀂄 Sales registrations down 11% YoY at 4,203
􀂄 Execution affected as developers submit revised plans under new DCR
􀂄 RBI pauses on rates, whilst reiterating loose monetary policy stance
􀂄 Slow pace of monetary easing could derail sector recovery
􀂄 Lease registrations up 6% YoY to 8,515

Recovery contingent on pace of easing
February 2012 sales registrations are down 11% YoY and 5% MoM to 4,203. Sales
registrations trend continues to remain weak, hovering at ~4000-4500 levels.
Post clarity emerging on the new DCR rules in January, the city continues to witness
increased action on the launches front. However, our interaction with developers
reveal that they are submitting revised project plans to the municipality to take
advantage of new fungible FSI, which is affecting execution at these projects. Thus,
as approvals under new DCR would take at least three months to come, execution is
expected to be affected till then, acting as a further dampener on sales.
On the monetary policy front, RBI has paused yet another time, leaving the repo rate
unchanged, although reiterating its loose monetary policy stance in their latest
monetary policy review. The extent of cuts undertaken by the Central bank, along
with the pace of easing, would decide the trajectory of recovery for the sector. At
the current juncture, the sector is in need of aggressive cuts from the Central bank,
as both, developer balance sheets and customer affordability, remain stressed.
However, the Central bank’s monetary easing is expected to be slow and calibrated
in lieu of continuing risks on the inflation front.
In terms of lease transactions, February 2012 numbers stood at 8515, exhibiting a
growth of 6% YoY.

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