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India Pharma Sector A. Aggarwal
Strong 4Q12 expected; FY13 sales guidance is the next trigger for Sun, DRL, Cipla & Glenmark 9122 6777 3808
4Q12 should be a strong quarter for Credit Suisse pharma coverage, with headline profits boosted by contribution from
exclusivities and MTM gains on foreign currency loans. Ranbaxy benefits from Lipitor exclusivity in US, EU and Australia,
DRL from Zyprexa and Geodon, Lupin (Geodon) and Cipla from Lexapro API supply.
Key events to look out for in 4Q12 results are: (1) FY13 sales growth guidance for Sun, Dr. Reddy's, Cipla and Glenmark
(2) domestic formulation sales growth (AIOCD: 17% IPM growth for Jan and Feb-12). We expect Sun to announce FY13
sales growth guidance of 20% while DRL should cut FY13 guidance of $2.7 bn.
Base business performance is also healthy in 4Q12. Sun should beat its FY12 sales growth guidance of 34%, and Doxil
sales in the quarter could positively surprise. Ex-Geodon, Lupin's base business sales should grow 21%. Cipla's base
profits should grow 21% while Dr. Reddy's should grow 33%.
Ranbaxy's base business EBITDA is expected to grow 10% sequentially while Glenmark's base sales should grow 20%.
Glaxo's margin should remain subdued due to INR depreciation.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
India Pharma Sector A. Aggarwal
Strong 4Q12 expected; FY13 sales guidance is the next trigger for Sun, DRL, Cipla & Glenmark 9122 6777 3808
4Q12 should be a strong quarter for Credit Suisse pharma coverage, with headline profits boosted by contribution from
exclusivities and MTM gains on foreign currency loans. Ranbaxy benefits from Lipitor exclusivity in US, EU and Australia,
DRL from Zyprexa and Geodon, Lupin (Geodon) and Cipla from Lexapro API supply.
Key events to look out for in 4Q12 results are: (1) FY13 sales growth guidance for Sun, Dr. Reddy's, Cipla and Glenmark
(2) domestic formulation sales growth (AIOCD: 17% IPM growth for Jan and Feb-12). We expect Sun to announce FY13
sales growth guidance of 20% while DRL should cut FY13 guidance of $2.7 bn.
Base business performance is also healthy in 4Q12. Sun should beat its FY12 sales growth guidance of 34%, and Doxil
sales in the quarter could positively surprise. Ex-Geodon, Lupin's base business sales should grow 21%. Cipla's base
profits should grow 21% while Dr. Reddy's should grow 33%.
Ranbaxy's base business EBITDA is expected to grow 10% sequentially while Glenmark's base sales should grow 20%.
Glaxo's margin should remain subdued due to INR depreciation.
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