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Emkaynomics
Fortnightly round up of key banking and economic indicators
· Non-food credit growth for the fortnight ended 10th Feb’ 2012 came in at 15.5% yoy. On YTD basis, growth stands at mere 11% against 16.5% YTD for the corresponding period of previous year
· Deposit growth too came in lower at 15.0%yoy. Growth in demand / time deposits stood at 3.1% yoy /16.6% yoy respectively. Share of demand deposits / total deposits continues to hover at 10% levels
· CD ratio continues to remain above 75% levels. Inc. CDR too has improved to 75% levels. Money supply growth has eased further to 14% yoy. With M1 growth at 8% yoy, the ratio of M3/M1 stands at 4.3x levels
· Jan-12 WPI Inflation at 6.6% was well within our estimates and was led by moderation in food articles (-0.5% yoy) and manufacturing (6.5% yoy vs 7.4% yoy in Dec-11). We expect WPI inflation to trend below 6% by end Mar’ 12
· Call money rates averaged 8.7% for over past 1-month. The spread of 10-yr Gsec over AAA corporate bond continues to remain at ~100bps+. The spread between the long and short end OIS have widened to over -150bps now
· ~Rs1.3tn of liquidity infusion in form of OMOs (since Nov, 2011) + CRR cut (Jan’2012) has eased bond yields by over 60bps from their recent highs. Long-end/short-end G-sec stood at 8.21%/8.17% as at 27th Feb, 2012
· … However, LAF window continues to remain in deficit mode with borrowing running high at ~Rs1.3tn (2.3% of NDTL). Liquidity is expected to remain tight given year-end credit growth phenomena and borrowing programme
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