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India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_UPElection_March2012.pdf
Two months of assembly elections in five states have finally concluded.
The five states that went to polls are Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, Goa
and the most crucial state - Uttar Pradesh. These five states represent
nearly one-fifth of India in terms of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha seats. The
ingredients of these elections were common to any other election in India
- star campaigners, crowds, slogans, youth, big promises, constant blamegames and continuous engagement with the Indian media.
In Punjab, the fight was bipolar-between the ruling SAD-BJP alliance and
the Congress. The major issues during the elections were corruption, ,
anti-incumbency and farmer issues. In the hill-state of Uttarakhand, it was
BJP CM Khanduri’s clean image vs. the Congress. While key issues of civil
liberty, security, territorial integrity, blockades and development remained
relevant during the run-up to the Manipur elections, the incumbent
Congress Chief Minister Okram looks set to retain power. In Goa, the
Congress chief minister will face an uphill task of retaining power, in the
backdrop of illegal mining, land scams and a high voter turnout.
However, the most interesting and crucial battle was fought in Uttar
Pradesh, witnessing the most keenly contested and multi-cornered fight
between the BSP, SP, BJP and the Congress. UP elections had become
the talking point for newspapers, media channels and stock market
participants. What makes UP elections so important is the historical
evidence, which suggests that the national party/coalition that gains
power in the state of UP, invariably gains at the centre.
The UP elections were held in seven phases with the poll dates being
February 8, 11, 15, 19, 23, 28 and March 3. UP is the most populous state,
with highest number of constituencies and districts. In these elections, UP
recorded its highest ever voter turnout of 60% (total voters in UP - 11.91
crore). In a state of traditionally lower voter turnouts, two crore more
people came out to vote compared to 2007. In all, UP witnessed a 14
percentage point (pps) increase in polling since 2007 and five time dip in
poll related crimes.
While various agencies have released their opinion polls/exit polls, which
are being thoroughly analysed by experts, we would like to take them with
a pinch of salt and discuss the trends rather than the absolute numbers.
Clearly all the exit polls unanimously suggest that the Samajwadi Party
(SP) is tipped to finish at the first spot, followed by Mayawati’s BSP. The
third and the fourth position would go to the BJP and the Congress
respectively. On March 6, all eyes would be on the performance of the
Congress rather than the winner of this political contest because that
would truly draw a clearer picture of the UPA’s agenda for the next two
years till the next Lok Sabha elections.
Exhibit 1: Assembly election 2012
Assembly Elections 2012
States Assembly Seats
Uttar Pradesh 403
Punjab 117
Uttarakhand 70
Manipur 60
Goa 40
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_UPElection_March2012.pdf
Two months of assembly elections in five states have finally concluded.
The five states that went to polls are Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, Goa
and the most crucial state - Uttar Pradesh. These five states represent
nearly one-fifth of India in terms of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha seats. The
ingredients of these elections were common to any other election in India
- star campaigners, crowds, slogans, youth, big promises, constant blamegames and continuous engagement with the Indian media.
In Punjab, the fight was bipolar-between the ruling SAD-BJP alliance and
the Congress. The major issues during the elections were corruption, ,
anti-incumbency and farmer issues. In the hill-state of Uttarakhand, it was
BJP CM Khanduri’s clean image vs. the Congress. While key issues of civil
liberty, security, territorial integrity, blockades and development remained
relevant during the run-up to the Manipur elections, the incumbent
Congress Chief Minister Okram looks set to retain power. In Goa, the
Congress chief minister will face an uphill task of retaining power, in the
backdrop of illegal mining, land scams and a high voter turnout.
However, the most interesting and crucial battle was fought in Uttar
Pradesh, witnessing the most keenly contested and multi-cornered fight
between the BSP, SP, BJP and the Congress. UP elections had become
the talking point for newspapers, media channels and stock market
participants. What makes UP elections so important is the historical
evidence, which suggests that the national party/coalition that gains
power in the state of UP, invariably gains at the centre.
The UP elections were held in seven phases with the poll dates being
February 8, 11, 15, 19, 23, 28 and March 3. UP is the most populous state,
with highest number of constituencies and districts. In these elections, UP
recorded its highest ever voter turnout of 60% (total voters in UP - 11.91
crore). In a state of traditionally lower voter turnouts, two crore more
people came out to vote compared to 2007. In all, UP witnessed a 14
percentage point (pps) increase in polling since 2007 and five time dip in
poll related crimes.
While various agencies have released their opinion polls/exit polls, which
are being thoroughly analysed by experts, we would like to take them with
a pinch of salt and discuss the trends rather than the absolute numbers.
Clearly all the exit polls unanimously suggest that the Samajwadi Party
(SP) is tipped to finish at the first spot, followed by Mayawati’s BSP. The
third and the fourth position would go to the BJP and the Congress
respectively. On March 6, all eyes would be on the performance of the
Congress rather than the winner of this political contest because that
would truly draw a clearer picture of the UPA’s agenda for the next two
years till the next Lok Sabha elections.
Exhibit 1: Assembly election 2012
Assembly Elections 2012
States Assembly Seats
Uttar Pradesh 403
Punjab 117
Uttarakhand 70
Manipur 60
Goa 40
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
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