Tata Chemicals Strong performance ::Prabhudas Lilladher

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􀂄 Better‐than‐expected Q2FY12 result: Tata Chemical’s (TCL’s) net sales grew by
19.7% YoY to Rs35.7bn (PLe: Rs31.3bn), primarily led by better volumes and
realization in both, the businesses i.e. inorganic chemical and fertilizers. EBITDA
grew by 57.3% YoY to Rs6.7bn (PLe: Rs6.1bn). PAT grew by 134.3% YoY to
Rs2.9bn (PLe: Rs2bn).
Inorganic chemical’s sales grew by 27.2% YoY to Rs16.4bn, primarily on account
of better volume (soda ash volume up by 4.2% YoY and 3.2% QoQ) growth and
realization across the geographies. Fertilizer sales grew by 13.7% YoY to
Rs14.2bn on account of higher volume (urea volume up by 16.3% YoY despite
having shut down of plant for 15 days) during the quarter and higher farm-gate
prices of non-urea fertilizers. EBIT margin of inorganic chemicals and fertilizer
stood at 21.4% and 10.9%, respectively. Company has received subsidy related
to earlier years during Q2FY12. Hence, fertiliser calculated EBIT stood at 9.1%.
Company has provided MTM forex loss on its loan of Rs472.7m and has profit on
sale of investment of Rs305.1m (considered as exceptional item). Hence,
reported PAT stood at Rs2.8bn.
􀂄 Key Highlights for the quarter: During Q1FY12, company has not recognized
subsidy income of Rs14cr (H1FY12: Rs45cr) on opening stock of raw materials
for non-urea fertilizers according to DoF. Company has increased strategic stake
in EPM Mining Ventures Inc. to 30.6% to secure supplies and access low cost
sulphate of potash. TCL has formed joint venture with FMC Corporation and
Church & Dwight to set up a 4.5Lac TPA manufacturing facility to produce Trona
sorbents with an investment of US$60m.

􀂄 Maintain ‘Accumulate’: Post several weak quarters, TCL has reported strong
performance during Q2FY12. We are cautious and believe that Soda Ash
business could face challenge on account of rising input cost and slow down in
Europe/US primarily in Auto/Infrastructure sector, going forward. Further, we
expect that company’s agri input business would perform better in
short/medium term, primarily on account of better Rabi crop prospect in India.
At present, stock is trading at stock is trading at one year forward P/E of 8.6x v/s
5year band of 7x-11x. We maintain our ‘Accumulate’ rating on the stock, with
the target price of Rs405. (i.e. 10.5xFY13E EPS).

Information Technology Rear View (JAS‐11): Reaffirming strength ::Prabhudas Lilladher

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Performance ahead of low running expectation has set the tone for Tier-1 Indian IT
Services (TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCLT). Volume growth in mid-single digit along with
margin impetus from rupee depreciation has pushed margins. The deal wins
indicates little trouble for Tier-1. Moreover, better-than-expected result for global
tech major and deal flow (TPI) in Q3CY11 further reaffirms strength. We remain
confident 20%+USD revenue growth. We reiterate ‘BUY’ on HCLT, Infosys and TCS.
􀂄 Performance exceeded low running expectation: After quarters of
underperformance, Wipro led the growth pack reporting 4.6% QoQ (@cc 5.5%)
growth, followed by TCS 4.7% QoQ (@cc 5.2%), Infosys 4.5% QoQ (@cc 5%) and
HCLT lagged with 4.1% QoQ (@cc 5.1%) growth. The volume growth for Tier-1
was 5.3% QoQ, in-line with our view of mid-single-digit growth, aided by Wipro
(6.0%), TCS (5.8%), Infosys (4.4%) and HCLT (4%). However, the management
tone continues to be cautious on the overall environment.
􀂄 What surprised us? Positively 1) Currency depreciation and operational
efficiency pushed margin expansion by 22bps QoQ 2) Rupee revenue growth
was 7.5% QoQ, whereas USD revenue growth was 4.5% QoQ 3) Blended pricing
muted QoQ for Tier-1 4) 190 new clients added by Tier-1, strongest in the last 23
quarters 5) Lateral hiring de-grow QoQ for the first time in last nine quarters 6)
Total employee grew by 5.5% QoQ, in-line with volume growth 7) Onsite
revenue contribution grew by 7bps, 8th consecutive quarter of uptick (excluding
OND-10) 8) Total active clients grew by 76 clients for Tier-1, strongest in last 13
quarters. Negatively 1) PAT Margin decline of 74bps QoQ, due to forex loss 2)
Commentary on deal pipeline continues to be cautious 3) Top-10 clients grew by
3.8% QoQ, 4th consecutive quarter of slower than overall growth 4) Revenue
productivity (Revenue/Billed man-months) declined by -0.7% QoQ.
􀂄 Fresher hiring for FY13: Infosys and TCS has guided for 23k and 45 fresher hiring
guidance for FY13, respectively. The guidance for Infosys looks conservative.
􀂄 What to expect? 1) We expect deal pipeline to improve further 2) We expect
EBITDA margin to be stable as currency fluctuates and companies absorb cost 3)
We see attrition and cost pressure easing out further.
􀂄 Better than expected result from Accenture, Capgemini, Cognizant, and Logica:
Global IT Services majors have reported quarterly results ahead of consensus,
expectation reaffirming strength in demand.
􀂄 Remain positive on Tier‐1: We reiterate our positive stance on Tier-1. We also
revise our estimates upward by 2-5% for FY12 and FY13 due to weaker rupee.
We reiterate our ‘BUY’ on HCLT, Infosys and TCS and ‘Accumulate’ on Wipro,
with a target price of Rs550, Rs3,090, Rs1,230 and Rs410, respectively.

Category-W​ise Turnover 7-Dec-11

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Trade Date	Category	Buy Value in Rs.Crores	Sell Value in Rs.Crores
7-Dec-11	Mutual Funds	144.92	37.61	107.31
7-Dec-11	Proprietory Trades	50440.40	51727.49	-1287.09
7-Dec-11	Others	40191.50	39756.96	434.54
Notes :
1.  Buy / Sell value at the end of day:
Options Value (Buy/Sell) = Strike price * Qty
Futures Value (Buy/Sell) = Traded Price * Qty
2. Others exclude FIIs, Mutual Funds, Proprietory Trades

 

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EU Summit, leaders made meaningful progress on fiscal integration ::Edelweiss

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In the EU Summit, leaders made meaningful progress on fiscal integration (though still far from “fiscal union” and hence a Eurobond).  However, unless these measures are accompanied by ECB enhancing its role significantly, it will not materially alter the debt crisis situation in the near-term. If anything, too much stress on fiscal austerity without growth boosting measures could worsen the debt dynamics. Moreover, the Summit failed to achieve much except for the probable increase in the fire power of IMF by ~ EUR200bn (through loans from member states) but that too is a small amount given the size of the problem. Overall, a good show of resolve to deepen the Union but not much to address the escalating debt crisis.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 07-Dec-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 07-Dec-2011
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	79343	2005.82	58899	1466.01	550848	13804.29	539.81
INDEX OPTIONS	629834	15948.00	618237	15520.84	1851655	46869.90	427.16
STOCK FUTURES	56827	1362.09	63820	1592.16	1116231	26135.55	-230.07
STOCK OPTIONS	10756	257.38	10563	249.05	28835	702.72	8.34
						Total	745.24

 

 

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Prestige Estates Projects PEPL IN -BUY : Nomura Research

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RESULTS FIRST LOOK
Prestige’s 2QFY12 results missed our as well as consensus revenue/profit estimates, but this was largely on account of slower-than-expected construction progress at one of its ongoing projects. Despite an uncertain macro environment, the company noted strong response at its newly launched residential projects and achieved cumulative sales of INR7.1bn in the quarter vs INR10.8bn for full-year FY11 (residential segment). We expect revenues to pick up from 4QFY12F as newer high-value projects reach the revenue threshold. Liquidation of debtors should be a key catalyst for the stock. Maintain BUY.

Eros International: Marginally weak 2QFY12 ::Kotak Securities

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Eros International (EROS)
Media
Marginally weak 2QFY12. Eros reported 2QFY12 EBIT at Rs473 mn (-15% yoy),
marginally below estimates. The yoy performance seems weak due to (1) unfavorable
base in 2QFY11 (contribution from sale of library) and (2) forex losses (at PAT level). The
structural drivers remain intact: (1) C&S TV licensing income, (2) Digital Cinema et al;
Eros has also put forth a robust initial film slate for FY2013E-14E with potential for
accruals through acquisitions. However, valuations (14X FY2013E EPS) have caught on;
downgrade to REDUCE with limited upside to FY2013E FV of Rs270.

Housing Development & Infrastructure: Triggers get more elusive ::Kotak Securities

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Housing Development &
Infrastructure (HDIL)
Property
Triggers get more elusive. 2QFY12 was weak with revenues (Rs4.4 bn, -14% qoq)
and EBITDA (Rs2.3 bn, -21% qoq) lower than expected. With (1) weak TDR sales in
2QFY12, (2) no launches in 2QFY12 and (2) possible delay in deliveries, near-term
triggers seem unlikely. We reduce our FY2012E revenues and net profit estimates by
11%/14% but the stock is trading at 0.4X current BV with FY2012E ROE of 11%. We
retain BUY with a revised target price of Rs140/share (Rs150/share earlier).

Industrials: Accumulated ordering far above likely capacity addition requirement ::Kotak Sec

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Industrials
India
Accumulated ordering far above likely capacity addition requirement. The
Working Group on Power has estimated power capacity demand of 76 GW in the XII
plan (at 9% GDP), far below the accumulated ordering levels of 115 GW already
placed. This would imply sedate incremental ordering for next few years. The report
also projects relatively low CAGR of 6% and 8% in generation and transmission
spending in XIIth plan versus likely XIth plan spends. Generation and transmission are
indeed likely to meet 85% of the spend target of XIth plan though the distribution
segment has lagged (at 33% of envisaged levels). We note commissioning of 41 GW in
the XIth plan with another 22 GW under construction.

Adani Power :2QFY12 performance in-line: Motilal Oswal

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 2QFY12 performance in-line: Adani Power (ADANI) reported a PAT of INR1.8b. Adjusted for MTM forex loss, PAT
was INR2.3b, in line with our estimate of INR2.3b. On a reported basis, fuel cost for the quarter was INR1.48/unit.
This includes forex loss of INR940m, of which INR300m pertains to 2Q. Taking only the forex impact of 2Q, fuel cost
for the quarter was INR1.25/unit v/s INR1.15/unit in 1QFY12. During the quarter, ADANI booked INR660m on forward
contract, as well as stock, which was not consumed in 2QFY12. Any reversal in exchange movement could mean
reversal of forex loss of INR660m.
 Merchant sales at 36% of net generation v/s 9% in 1QFY12: In 2QFY12, ADANI sold ~1BU or 36% of its sales on
merchant basis, much higher than 9% of sales in 1QFY12. We understand that the higher merchant sales were led
by the commissioning of the first supercritical unit (U-I Phase-III), where the PPA with GUVNL is expected to start
from February 2012. However, ADANI has contested the PPA with GUVNL (PPA at levelized tariff of INR2.35/unit) and
has taken the matter to the apex court. (Appellate Tribunal ruled in favor of GUVNL). ADANI's average realization was
boosted owing to its medium term agreement with UP (June onwards), with a tariff of INR4.10-4.47/unit. Its MT bid
tied up with Maharashtra should begin contributing to revenue from 3QFY12.
 Capacity addition looking up; coal availability under contractual commitment key in future: Installed capacity
as at September 2011 stood at 1.98GW (excluding 660MW synchronized) and ADANI is hopeful of attaining a
capacity of 6GW by FY12. We model generation capacity at 4.6GW by FY12 / 6.6GW by FY13, based on which
ADANI is likely to burn fuel of 10m ton in FY12 and 24m ton in FY13. Given the constrained availability of coal under
agreed fixed price contract with Adani Enterprises as well as through domestic linkages, ADANI would have to
procure coal on spot basis.
 Valuation and view: We expect ADANI's consolidated net profit to increase to INR15.5b (up 1.7x) in FY12 and to
INR30.6b (up 93%) in FY13, given the increase in operational capacity. We estimate the earnings contribution of
merchant power at 65% in FY12, increasing to ~70% in FY13, as the PPAs get triggered by mid-FY13. The stock
trades at 13x FY12E and 7x FY13E earnings. Maintain Neutral.

CLSA: Different track :: India's rise

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Different track
India is a country with multiple personalities within each of its social, political
and economic layers. The palpable extreme contrasts, and the day-to-day
decision making and outcomes often appear to challenge logic, but never fail
to confound, amaze or disappoint - sometimes all in a single snapshot. Even
on a good day, there seems to be crisis somewhere in the folds of this chaotic
democracy. On a bad day, one often wonders how it functions at all, let alone
how it evolved to be Asia’s second-fastest growing economy.
But despite its multinational character and the baggage of vast size of
uneducated and poor population, India has defied doomsday predictions.
However, its economic rise has been far from smooth or even, and continues
to have its share of uncertainties. This has more to do with the evolving local
endogenous political cross-currents than with the country’s democratic
foundation. The irony that the world’s largest democracy has a selected - not
popularly elected - prime minister should not be overlooked.
A late bloomer, India’s economic evolution is following a different path
compared to other Asian economies. The differences are underappreciated
and often misinterpreted. Unlike the Asian authoritarian political regimes that
favoured political openness after becoming economically open, India is
moving ahead with the reverse combination, and with the additional liability
of weak coalition governments. To be sure, unlike Deng Xiaoping in China,
Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore or Mahathir Mohamad in Malaysia, India has no
effective visionary reformist-politicians who can ably negotiate political
consensus on reforms. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who is in office but
does not seem to be in power, is an accidental reformer at best.
Still, trend economic growth has accelerated despite a lethargic reform
agenda since 2004, when the Congress-led UPA-1 came to power. UPA-II has
been embroiled in corruption scandals and is balancing the trade-off between
environment issues, corruption, growth and vote-bank politics. Admittedly,
the government’s policy paralysis in the last year has added to the cyclical
slowdown, but the attractiveness of a strong structural story does not
eliminate cyclical headwinds. The current challenges with land and labour are
another rude reminder that India’s topsy-turvy approach to reforms has
reformed product markets before fixing its factor markets. It appears ironic
that land and labour, which are both in surplus in India, have become
liabilities for growth but capital, which is scarce, has had a smoother ride.
Unlike other Asian economies, India’s global merchandise export share has
been rising without a comparable jump in FDI, without the aid of a superundervalued
currency, and despite the embarrassing infrastructure deficit.
Living with chronic twin deficits will remain challenging but globalisation is
also forcing Indian governments to do some right things, eventually.
There is nothing pre-ordained about India’s economic rise, despite the scope
for unlocking of the structural tailwinds, which will be affected by the pace
and nature of reforms. The evolving demographic dividend, which has already
been contributing to economic growth, is also fuelling rising aspirations across
rural and urban areas and calls for greater accountability. Governments will
have little choice but to attempt better delivery, or Indians will vote with their
feet. In the final tally, India remains a glass half-full story that cannot be fully
appreciated by assessing it through the lens used for other Asian economies

Buy GUJARAT APOLLO ; TARGET PRICE: RS.170:: Kotak Sec,

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GUJARAT APOLLO LIMITED (GAL)
PRICE: RS.128 RECOMMENDATION: BUY
TARGET PRICE: RS.170 FY13E P/E: 7.1X
q GAL Q2FY12 results are in line with our estimates. Margins decline YoY
on account of higher input prices. Company has taken few price hikes to
partly pass on the raw material pressure to its customers. This is likely to
get reflected in 2HFY12.
q Lower sales in Subsidiary 'Apollo Earthmovers ltd' that deals in MEG
(Mobile Equipment Group) is attributed to the inability of BS II and BS III
engines that has led to the temporary production halt in the quarter.
q Equipment manufacturers have recently started to experience a slight
pick up in business activity. Recently NHAI has also expedited its process
of allotment of new road contracts. This is likely to auger well for the
company and the peer group in the medium term.
q We lower our estimates for FY12 to account for 1) operating margin pressure
due to commodity price inflation 2) increase in interest rate affecting
working capital financing.
q We recommend 'BUY' with a one year DCF based revised price target of
Rs 170 (Rs 195 earlier).

MoSt Shares NASDAQ 100 ETF: Invest ::Business Line

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The underlying stocks and the index present a significant opportunity to diversify with an international touch.

Investors can buy units of Motilal Oswal MoSt Shares Nasdaq 100 ETF(MoSt ETF) as an international diversifier to their portfolio. The ETF will provide exposure to a basket of quality technology stocks that have an outstanding track record, operate worldwide and have shown resilience across economic phases. It is, however, noteworthy that the returns that you finally get may vary in rupee terms based on the dollar-rupee equation.

Even so, MoSt ETF's return has matched the Nasdaq 100 index on which it is based over a six-month period and has, in fact, exceeded it the last three months, partly aided by the rupee depreciation. Over the past three months, the ETF has delivered returns of over 16 per cent and a little over 8 per cent on a six-month timeframe. This is much higher than domestic funds.

While the track record may be relatively short to judge, the underlying stocks and the index present a significant opportunity to diversify with an international touch.

Investors can park small sums of money through a regular SIP in the fund. MoSt ETF, being an international fund, will receive treatment similar to that of a debt fund for capital gains purposes.

The Nasdaq 100 contains some of the best technology names in the world, apart from high quality players in healthcare, consumer services and telecommunications.

UNDERLYING STRENGTH

Besides familiar names such as Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Cisco Systems, there are also top names such as Baidu (top Chinese search engine), Starbucks, Cognizant Technology and Sandisk that have been multi-baggers.

According to Bloomberg data, the index itself is trading at around 14 times trailing earnings and an estimated 12 times forward earnings for 2012, making for a 20 per cent plus growth rates. This is certainly cheaper than what top-tier domestic IT companies command.

Also, earnings commentary from companies such as IBM, Accenture and Oracle have been quite positive on technology spends and the outlook in general, for software and hardware services, remains healthy. Names in healthcare and food chains too add to the potential. These companies haveeither minimal or no net debt at all. Investors, however, have to take a longer-term approach of, say, three-five years, to gain maximum benefit, as the index can go into a lull for prolonged periods of time.

BUY Punjab National Bank 2Q earnings in line; comfort on asset quality; BofA Merrill Lynch,

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Punjab National Bank
2Q earnings in line; comfort on
asset quality; Reiterate Buy
􀂄 2Q: Earnings exactly in line, but +5-6% better than Street
PNB reported earnings of Rs12.1bn (exactly in line), up +12% yoy. This is after
PNB made higher-than-required MTM provisions on its investment book. The
book is now hedged up to 8.7% yields. Top line grew 16% yoy (7% ahead),
driven by 19% loan growth. However, margins are down 11bps yoy (up 11bps
qoq) to 4.0%. Disappointment was fee growth (core), which grew only 6% yoy,
and CASA, which is down 430bps yoy (100bps qoq) to ~36%. Tier 1 is
comfortable at ~9.3%.
Restructured loans shoot up, but slippage (net) trend down
While the bank's restructured loans showed a +25% jump qoq (by Rs41bn), we
believe asset quality is very manageable. The bulk of the restructured increase
qoq came from the power sector (Rs18bn is restructuring of Tamil Nadu Electricity
Board) and Rs6.5bn from Aban. But reported slippages (net of recoveries) came
in below our run-rate (~Rs7bn/qtr) and also down ~50% qoq, to Rs2.7bn (~0.5%
of 1-yr lag loans). We still est. net slippages at ~Rs28/37bn in FY12/13, but asset
quality should remain manageable, with provision cover est. at +74-75%.
Risk-return very attractive; Preferred pick
We have marginally tweaked our earnings (<1%) for FY12/13; hence, we still
estimate PNB’s earnings growth to sustain at +16/22% through FY12/13. Riskreturn
remains very attractive, with PNB trading at 1.2x FY13 book, with RoEs of
~22%. Hence, We reiterate Buy and PO; Preferred pick (ex SBI) in govt. space.

Buy UNITY INFRAPROJECTS::TARGET PRICE: RS.74:: Kotak Sec

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UNITY INFRAPROJECTS
PRICE: RS.37 RECOMMENDATION: BUY
TARGET PRICE: RS.74 FY13E P/E: 2.5X
Result highlights: Results were better than our estimates and led by
improved execution and better than expected operating margins. Stock is
currently trading at very attractive valuations and we continue to maintain
BUY on the company.
q Revenue growth stood at 13% YoY, in line with our estimates. This was
led by strong order book and improved execution.
q Operating margins remained strong at 16.1% for Q2FY12 due to decline
in construction expenses. We however expect margins to be in the range
of 12.5-13% going forward.
q Net profit growth was better than our estimates due to strong revenue
growth and excellent margins. However, interest outgo jumped up quite
sharply.
q We marginally tweak our FY12 estimates and roll forward our valuations
on FY13 estimates and arrive at a revised price target of Rs 74 (Rs 86 earlier)
at 5x FY13 estimated earnings and continue to maintain BUY on the
company.

Accumulate R SYSTEMS INTERNATIONAL; TARGET PRICE: RS.125 :: Kotak Sec

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R SYSTEMS INTERNATIONAL LTD (RS)
PRICE: RS.110 RECOMMENDATION: ACCUMULATE
TARGET PRICE: RS.125 CY12 PE - 5.8X
R Systems' 3QCY11 results were almost in line with estimates. A one-time
sale of hardware of about Rs.90mn, led to a 15% rise in revenues QoQ.
Volume growth was at 3.5%, we understand. Excluding the hardware
component, margins were higher due to better leverage on costs. The
company won 10 new accounts during the quarter. The macro scene has
turned challenging though R Systems has not felt any impact of the same,
as yet. R Systems has a predominantly project - based business, which is
relatively more vulnerable to macro shocks. However, volumes have grown
for five successive quarters now and margins have also improved for the
second successive quarter (excluding rupee impact). We maintain that, only
higher consistency in revenue will lead to better margins and attract higher
valuations for the stock. We upgrade the stock to ACCUMULATE. The price
target stands marginally revised to Rs.124 (Rs.119) based on CY12E earnings.
Earnings per share stand at Rs.19 for CY12. The high amount of (net) cash in
the balance - sheet of about Rs.74 per share by CY12E end may act as
cushion. Recessionary conditions in developed economies and a sharperthan-
expected appreciation in rupee v/s major currencies can pose risks to
our estimates.

Cipla: Results meet our expectations :: Kotak Sec

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Cipla (CIPLA)
Pharmaceuticals
Results meet our expectations. PAT excluding forex was Rs3 bn, in line with our
estimate with sales 3% higher and margin 40 bps lower than our estimate. However,
we remain concerned in light of (1) domestic sales growth remaining (11% in 1HFY12)
below market growth, (2) export formulation sales excluding Indore SEZ declining 10%
in 1HFY12 and (3) heavy capex underway in FY2012-13E implying front-loading of
expenses in FY2013E. Maintain REDUCE with a price target of Rs310 (18X FY2013E).

CURRENCY Whither INR? Edelweiss,

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EM currencies (including INR) have tumbled sharply in recent times as the
EU debt crisis escalated. The intensity of correction is surprising and is in
contrast to their behavior during Apr‐Jun 2010 period when signs of EU
crisis first surfaced. In our view, the key differentiating factor this time is
the sharp spike in inter‐bank stress in Europe (Euribor‐OIS spread
widened sharply). Notably, EU banks account for ~55% of the total foreign
claims on EM Asia and India (~at USD 160 bn) is no exception to this.
While claims data for September is not yet available, we think that as the
EU crisis escalated in Aug‐Sept, EU banks began hoarding liquidity and
cutting exposures to EM thereby triggering a harsh fall in EM currencies ‐
similar to what was observed in late 2008. Notably, while EM currencies
recovered somewhat in Oct due to EU deal, INR bucked the trend, largely
reflecting widening current account deficit (CAD), with Oct trade balance
standing at an all time high of ~USD 20 bn.
Going ahead, India’s exports will slow down sharply in H2 and if the
recent trend in crude and gold imports continues, imports will remain
relatively resilient, causing the CAD to widen toward 3.2%‐3.3% of the
GDP in H2. Meanwhile, both equity and debt flows will likely remain
subdued. Given this weak BoP outlook, we believe that INR will remain
weak, averaging ~50 against USD in 2HFY12.
EM currencies exhibiting violent movements
The recent period saw sharp movements in currencies across EMs, with INR weakening
~10%, (BRL, KRW corrected even more) vs USD during Aug‐Sept period. While this is
apparently due to rise in global risk aversion amidst conflagration of EU debt crisis, the
intensity of the fall was clearly surprising. In fact in Apr‐June ’10, when EU debt
problems first emerged and EUR reacted violently, EM currencies incl. INR were far
more resilient (falling only marginally against USD but appreciating against EUR).