03 November 2011

Buy Allahabad Bank :: Target 183 :: Anand Rathi

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��





    Allahabad Bank                                CMP      166                                                           SL      157                                                         Target     183  
Company Description

Allahabad Bank provides retail banking, corporate/wholesale banking, and treasury services in India and internationally. It accepts demand deposits, savings bank deposits, term deposits, and current accounts. The company’s loan products consist of housing loans, education loans, car loans, personal loans for pensioners and doctors/medical practitioners, rent loans, property loans, furnishing loans, gold loans, overdraft facilities, and reverse mortgage schemes. In addition, it provides cash management services, depository services, real time gross settlement, national electronic funds transfer, bancassurance, mutual fund services, international banking services, visa debit cum ATM cards, and credit cards, as well as online payment and Internet banking services. Further, the company, through its subsidiary, AllBank Finance Ltd., offers corporate advisory, project appraisal, issue management, loan syndication, and debenture and trusteeship underwriting services. As of March 31, 2011, it operated a network of approximately 2416 branches. The company was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in KolkataIndia.
Technical Comments 

Stock has breached the upper resistance line with huge volume activity indicating upside moment may be seen in the counter from current level. One can initiate buy at CMP for the target of  183 with SL of 157 Rs. in coming days.


Monthly PPT Nov 2011 - Equity:: Stock Scrips

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��



 Hotel Industry
  • Indian tourism has been a direct beneficiary of the growing Indian economy. Tourism demand is expected to hit US$ 266.1bn by 2019.
  • TAJGVK Hotels, EIH, Indian Hotels are also looking good the on charts for a 5-7% rally from present levels. 

Pick of the month - Tata Sponge
Short-term target – Rs.365                             Long-term target – Rs.414

    • A joint venture of Tata Steel and The Industrial Promotion & Investment Corporation of Orissa (IPCOL), Tata Sponge Iron (TSIL) was incorporated in 1982 to produce sponge iron.
    • With production of 3.83 lakh tonnes in FY 2011, it achieved capacity utilisation of 98.2%. This is a record for the zero-debt company. With manufacturing capacity of 3.9 lakh tonnes, it is addressing a huge market, estimated at 2.3 crore tonnes of hot briquetting iron and sponge iron in FY 2011.
    •  It is installing a boiler-based power plant, of 25 MW, to utilise the solid waste. The project would be financed through internal generation and borrowings. Tata Sponge Iron currently has installed capacity of 26 MW and sells the surplus, which is more than two-thirds of its output. The new plant would further add to profit.
    • Q2 FY12 results – Sales, at Rs.168.02 crore, were sluggish. Even with revenue under pressure, margins rocketed 884bp, from 8.93% to 17.77%. Consequently, the operating profit scaled a high of Rs.29.86 crore (up 90.80%). After providing for interest, the company generated cash before depreciation of Rs.36.02 crore.
    • TSI’s RoE for FY11 was 21.86%. At present, the stock trades below its five-year average PE. The FY11 EPS was Rs.65.80. The company has a BV of Rs.329.28 and a P/BV of 1x, also below its five-year average P/BV of 2.25x.

Results season in full swing
  • Performance of the CNX 500 universe (242 companies declared results) shows a 28.28% rise in revenue and a 32.8% decline in profit.
  • The Nifty universe (29 companies declared results) shows a 24.4% rise in revenue and a 1.8% rise in profit.
Nifty View

The Nifty failed to trade above its 200 DMA @ 5404 even after breaking out of its trading range of 4700-5200. If the Nifty can hold above 5200 in coming days, a rally to 5430 and
5700 might be possible. Nifty below 100 DMA 5235 levels for 2-3days on closing below it may again witness selling pressure towards 5000-4750-4400 levels could be possible in
coming months.

Due to the volatality in the markets we prefer  to be stock specific. We like EIH, TAJGVK, IRB INFRA, PTC, CHAMBAL, STANCHART IDR (as it quotes at a discount), TATA SPONGE, TATA ELXSI.

BSE, Bulk deals, 3/11/2011

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
3/11/2011530027Aadi IndsRAKESH SAHUS19812916.27
3/11/2011511706Action FinMOONSTAR SECURITIES TRADING & FINANCE CO P LTDB4998926.28
3/11/2011531568Ashutosh PaperARVINDER SINGH PASRICHAB40000174.00
3/11/2011533469Birla Pacific MedspaRUPAK TRADING PRIVATE LIMITEDS116781817.90
3/11/2011512379Cressanda SolRAHUL AGARWALS500005.30
3/11/2011530337Exelon InfraMANISH RATILAL SHAHB10099634.92
3/11/2011523672Flex Foods-$VISIONSTARB9783636.71
3/11/2011523672Flex Foods-$VISIONSTARS12283636.01
3/11/2011500202India LeaseGROSVENOR ESTATE PVT LTDB880008.00
3/11/2011500202India LeaseJAYABHARAT CREDIT LTDS780008.00
3/11/2011533676INDO THAIMILLENNIUM STOCK BROKING PVT LTDB7986721.02

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 03-Nov-2011

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 03-Nov-2011 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES593481537.00761031971.4655401014504.73-434.47
INDEX OPTIONS59750415603.6459411715577.65151781639971.9225.99
STOCK FUTURES599121479.76614551544.91116919529036.79-65.15
STOCK OPTIONS13129334.5812221313.1225798671.6021.45
      Total-452.17

 


-- 

NSE, Bulk deals, 03-NOV-2011

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


DateSymbolSecurity NameClient NameBuy / SellQuantity TradedTrade Price /
Wght. Avg.
Price
Remarks
03-Nov-2011ECEINDECE Industries LimitedECE INDUSTRIES LTDBUY4,03,300138.06-
03-Nov-2011ECEINDECE Industries LimitedMinal PatelSELL2,00,000138.00-
03-Nov-2011INDOTHAIIndo Thai Sec LtdALIVE CONSULTANTS ALIVEBUY2,26,46221.13-
03-Nov-2011INDOTHAIIndo Thai Sec LtdALIVE CONSULTANTS ALIVESELL2,26,46221.16-

3/11/11:: Categories Turnover (Rs. crore) Clients NRI Proprietary Trade Date Buy Sales Net Buy Sales Net Buy Sales Net 3/11/11 1,489.04 1,512.91 -23.87 2.12 1.99 0.13 450.31 431.66 18.66 2/11/11 1,588.30 1,592.99 -4.68 0.56 0.34 0.22 474.11 465.44 8.67 1/11/11 1,568.13 1,480.06 88.06 0.55 0.83 -0.28 454.42 454.57 -0.15 Nov , 11 4,645.47 4,585.96 59.51 3.23 3.16 0.07 1,378.84 1,351.67 27.18 Since 1/1/11 417,863.72 422,534.85 -4,671.12 299.87 208.82 91.05 121,679.47 120,816.21 863.27

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��



Categories Turnover
(Rs. crore)
ClientsNRIProprietary
Trade DateBuySalesNetBuySalesNetBuySalesNet
3/11/111,489.041,512.91-23.872.121.990.13450.31431.6618.66
2/11/111,588.301,592.99-4.680.560.340.22474.11465.448.67
1/11/111,568.131,480.0688.060.550.83-0.28454.42454.57-0.15
Nov , 114,645.474,585.9659.513.233.160.071,378.841,351.6727.18
Since 1/1/11417,863.72422,534.85-4,671.12299.87208.8291.05121,679.47120,816.21863.27

3/11/11: FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE) (Rs. crore)

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


FII & DII Turnover (BSE + NSE)
(Rs. crore)
FIIDII
Trade DateBuySalesNetBuySalesNet
3/11/111,884.031,868.5815.45973.06971.151.91
2/11/111,469.281,477.06-7.78736.50744.29-7.79
1/11/111,914.741,935.40-20.66666.561,239.97-573.41
Nov , 115,268.055,281.04-12.992,376.122,955.41-579.29
Since 1/1/11   *524,666.90542,657.13-17,990.23244,642.96223,176.7421,466.22

Utilities: SEBs: Losses mount as tepid tariff hikes fail to reverse the trend :: Kotak Sec,

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Utilities
India
SEBs: Losses mount as tepid tariff hikes fail to reverse the trend. We probe
reasons for the mounting losses of state utilities, which currently stand at Rs635 bn for
FY2010 on an aggregate basis, although on a subsidy-booked basis the losses are
comparatively modest at Rs295 bn. In an environment of rising costs of supply, the
industry continues to be plagued by insufficient tariff increases and non-receipt of
subsidies. Recent tariff hikes by several states and lower cost of power purchased from
the short-term market could help contain, though not reduce, losses.

Muthoot Finance: Strong results; retain BUY :: Kotak Sec,

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Muthoot Finance (MUTH)
Banks/Financial Institutions
Strong results; retain BUY. Muthoot Finance reported PAT of Rs2.15 bn, up 90% yoy
and 4% above estimates. Strong (81% yoy) growth in loan book, marginal yoy
improvement in NIM and somewhat lower tax rates were key growth drivers although
operating expenses were higher than expected. Retain BUY with price target of Rs230.
Sharp decline in gold prices poses a risk to growth and earnings.

Sesa Goa Regulatory checks weigh down performance HOLD :Emkay

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��



Sesa Goa
Regulatory checks weigh down performance


HOLD

CMP: Rs 211                                       Target Price: Rs 239

n     Topline in line with estimates at Rs 7897 mn, down 14% YoY and 63% QoQ on low realizations and on sales volume of only 1.55 mt
n     EBITDA was down 92% YoY and 97% QoQ at Rs 259 mn including forex loss of Rs 2600 mn, well below estimates. EBITDA/ tonne for iron ore business stood at US$33
n     PAT on the back of other income of Rs 504 mn was reported at Rs 12.8 mn. Adjusted for forex loss and tax rate, the PAT stood at Rs 1.6 bn, lower than our estimates of Rs 2.04 bn
n     Cutting core EPS estimates for FY12E and FY13E to Rs 24 and Rs 29. We reduce our SOTP target price to Rs 239;  Assign Hold rating on the stock  

Petronet LNG 2QFY12: Strong operational delivery continues ::JPMorgan,

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


PLNG net profit of Rs2.6bn (+99%y/y) was ahead of our and consensus
expectations. LNG volumes were higher-than-expected and were the key
reason for the beat. We are more positive towards the stock post the 8%
correction over the last month and robust near-term outlook on LNG
volumes.
 Sustaining high utilizations… PLNG Dahej utilization levels continued
to be high at 106% and management guided that this is likely to sustain
over the next quarter based on tied-up spot volumes. Recent dip in spot
LNG prices, coupled with coal shortages and high merchant power
prices also makes us more sanguine on LNG offtake over the near-term.
 ..and robust marketing margins: Marketing margins were in-line with
1Q levels and management guidance. Average EBITDA/mmbtu of
Rs33.2 was marginally higher than last quarter levels. Reported other
expenditure contained an element of foreign exchange loss of Rs530m
pertaining to raw materials.
 Projects running on schedule. Kochi terminal is expected to be
commercialized in 4QCY12, with some volumes starting to come into
the terminal in 3Q; the second jetty at Dahej will be completed by Oct-
Nov 2013. Capex on Kochi is expected to be contained at Rs42bn and
for the Jetty at Rs9bn.
 Maintain PT of Rs190. We marginally adjust FY12 earnings by 3% on
lower-than-anticipated finance charges. We however continue to hold
our full year volume expectation at 10.5mMT (105% utilization) - the
coming quarters should see larger LT volumes, which would lower spot
berths - unless utilization levels are upped further. Our PT now provides
16% potential upside to the stock – we would be buyers of the stock at
Rs150-155 levels.

Tackle volatility to reach investment goals smoothly :: Business Line

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Short-term price volatility can adversely affect an investor's liquidity needs.
Since the beginning of 2011, the Nifty Index has fallen from a high of 6,181 to a low of 4,720. This drawdown does not capture the high volatility that the market has witnessed during the period. Volatility is rewarding when asset prices move upwards, but not when prices swing up and down. For, the investor is then faced with a choice: Is it good to take losses and reduce equity exposure? Or is it optimal to hold the position? The choice is not easy, but the decision is important for achieving an investment objective.
This article explains the importance of goal setting. It then discusses how goal setting can help investors moderate the impact of price volatility on their portfolio and enhance their chances of meeting their investment objectives.

LIQUIDITY RISK

Individuals typically invest to generate returns. Without any particular goal, such a portfolio would carry some proportion of bonds and equity. Cash is held in the portfolio primarily to buy these assets. This no-clear-objective portfolio faces high liquidity risk. This risk has two components- marketability and volatility.
An actively traded stock such as Reliance Industries is marketable because the cost of finding counterparty is low. The same cannot be said of, say, Electrotherm India. One indicator of high marketability is a low bid-ask spread.
Next, consider volatility. Suppose an individual wants to pay Rs 31 lakh as down payment towards purchase of a house in 2013. Assume that the individual invests Rs 25 lakh in an index fund in 2011 and that the investment is worth Rs 33 lakh in 2013. The investor can no doubt make the down payment. But she may be forced to sell the investment at a price that is significantly lower than the year's high. The impact of such fire-sale will be visible when the Nifty Index moves up in value after the individual has withdrawn the necessary cash. This happens because the individual did not envisage the impact of volatility on her liquidity needs.
Wealth mapping prompts an individual to map her investments to the desired objectives. But not before the individual sets aside enough money to take care of her short-term needs. It is this process that help individuals weather the market volatility.

LIQUIDITY NEEDS

An individual's lifecycle needs can be divided into protective assets, lifestyle assets and aspiration assets. Protective assets essentially help an individual protect her basic standard of living. Lifestyle assets take care of intermediate objectives such as buying a house and meeting children's education costs. Aspiration assets help an individual significantly enhance her standard of living.
Now, market volatility affects lifestyle assets the most, especially those investments that have short-term objectives. One way to moderate this effect is to move investments into protective assets based on a pre-defined rule.
Consider a five-year investment to make down payment for a house. Such an investment would be in stocks and bonds as part of lifestyle assets. Suppose the expected return on the investment is 15 per cent per annum. If the investment earns returns in excess of 15 per cent in any year, the individual should move the excess returns to money market funds within the protective assets. This process will help the investor lock-in the excess returns and cushion any shortfall due to high volatility in later years.
Besides, an investor should ideally keep investment less than three years inside the protective assets to moderate the impact of price volatility. Such investments would, however, expose an individual to shortfall risk, as money market funds generate low returns. An optimal alternative would be to gradually move an investment from lifestyle assets to protective assets as it approaches the horizon date.

CONCLUSION

High volatility primarily affects short-term objectives within the lifestyle assets. Investors can adopt a glide path to move investments with less than three years maturity from lifestyle assets to protective assets, just the same way a target-date fund moves investment from equity to bonds as it approaches the target retirement date. This process could balance liquidity and shortfall risks and enable individuals' weather turbulent market conditions.