India Equity Research: 09/12/11

Emkay Alternate Intelligence - Nifty likely to test resistance levels of 5180-5200

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Emkay Alternate Intelligence

Nifty likely to test resistance levels of 5180-5200

View: Overall F&O data indicates positive sentiments prevailing in the street. A move towards the resistance levels of 5180-5200 seems likely. We expect NSE VIX to decline towards the mean levels of 22% in coming sessions.

Nifty September futures open interest remained unchanged at 26.57 million shares yesterday. However, FIIs witnessed an increase of 3.79% contracts in open interest from 0.67 million contracts to 0.69 million contracts. They turned net buyers to the tune of Rs2.82 billion suggesting long accumulation.

Maximum accumulation among Nifty call options witnessed an upward shift from 5000 strike (5.08 million shares) to 5200 strike (5.65 million shares). Interestingly, ITM call strikes have started observing closure of positions. Maximum accumulation is seen in 5400 strike (addition of 0.47 million shares). Among Nifty put options, increased accumulation is observed in strikes of 5000 and 5100. Open interest in 5000 strike increased to 6.69 million shares from 5.97 million shares. The positive shift in accumulation pattern indicates positive sentiments prevailing.

NSE VIX declined to 27.86% from 28.66% yesterday. It continues to remain at higher than 1 standard deviation away from mean indicating further decline cannot be ruled out. In a data window of 60 days, the mean is 22.30% and standard deviation is close to 4.43.

Southwest Monsoon - Improvement accelerates :: Emkay

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Southwest Monsoon

Improvement accelerates

The rainfall after showing steady improvement over the last six weeks, gathered pace in the week ending Sept 07, 2011. The rainfall for the week ended September 07, 2011 was, ~38.5% above its long period average (LPA). The cumulative rainfall for the week ended September 07, 2011 stood at 2.7% above its LPA.

The number of divisions experiencing excess/normal rainfall remained unchanged at 32 from last week. The number of regions experiencing scanty rainfall stood at 4 and has not changed since last four weeks.

….With higher rainfall in Rain dependent areas

Till the week ended September 07, 2011, cumulative rainfall in rain dependent areas further improved to 10.1% above normal from 6.8% above normal in preceding week. The improvement was primarily drive by higher rainfall in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan region. Moreover rainfall in the eastern region like orissa and chattisgarh also reported significant improvement in rainfall, though continues to remain deficient with 1-10% below normal rainfall for the season.

Reservoir levels at 79% of their FRL’s

The reservoir levels stand at 79% of their full reservoir level (FRL) as against 61% Long Period Average (LPA).

Forecast rainfall for West coast and north eastern states

Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Orissa, Western Himalayan region, Northeastern states and West coast likely to receive fairly widespread rainfall, however rest of the country likely to witness decrease in rainfall.

Overall acreage improves; Pulses and coarse cereals reported substantial decline in acreage

Though acreage under major crops increased by ~3% to ~100mn hectare, crops like Pulses and Coarse cereals reported decline of 10.6% and 7.2% in acreage.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 12-Sep-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 12-Sep-2011
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	84974	2085.42	128757	3160.67	731513	17984.41	-1075.26
INDEX OPTIONS	478547	11625.09	477883	11704.10	2202651	54471.13	-79.01
STOCK FUTURES	68870	1714.89	74342	1798.74	1169481	28341.53	-83.85
STOCK OPTIONS	19749	458.94	20279	470.72	49478	1155.47	-11.78
						Total	-1249.89

BSE, Bulk deals, 12/9/2011

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Deal Date	Scrip Code	Company	Client Name	Deal Type *	Quantity	Price **
12/9/2011	524760	Arvind Intl-$	HARSHA MAYURBHAI SHETH	S	83664	18.82
12/9/2011	533469	Birla Pacific Medspa	PINAC STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD	B	600000	22.00
12/9/2011	522292	CHANDNI TE	VENKATESH PRASHANTH	B	2000000	2.25
12/9/2011	522292	CHANDNI TE	AILISH TRADERS PRIVATE LIMITED	S	2023015	2.25
12/9/2011	531364	CHOICE INF	UMANATH RAGHUNATH AGARWAL	B	30000	30.09
12/9/2011	530337	Exelon Infra	SHARADBHAI RAMANBHAI JHAVERI	B	127504	83.02
12/9/2011	530337	Exelon Infra	SHARADBHAI RAMANBHAI JHAVERI	S	107504	82.48
12/9/2011	531137	Gemstone Invest	KIRAN BHIKU BHANAES	B	397152	9.00
12/9/2011	531137	Gemstone Invest	MANISH SURESH JOSHI	S	400000	9.00
12/9/2011	500160	GTL	AMPLE HOTELS AND RESORTS PVT LTD	B	585534	72.93
12/9/2011	500160	GTL	CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED	B	955575	73.02
12/9/2011	500160	GTL	A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTD	B	789924	73.48
12/9/2011	500160	GTL	A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTD	S	789924	73.53
12/9/2011	500160	GTL	AMPLE HOTELS AND RESORTS PVT LTD	S	585534	72.98
12/9/2011	500160	GTL	CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED	S	955575	73.30
12/9/2011	524754	Gujarat Medi	INDU JAIN	B	50000	16.75
12/9/2011	524754	Gujarat Medi	HEM CHAND JAIN	B	50000	16.75
12/9/2011	524754	Gujarat Medi	VIKRAM SHANKAR NANKANI	S	34000	16.78
12/9/2011	524754	Gujarat Medi	KAIZEN STOCKTRADE PRIVATE LIMITED	S	25000	16.85
12/9/2011	524754	Gujarat Medi	GAUTAM RESOURCES LTD	S	24900	16.75
12/9/2011	524754	Gujarat Medi	GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKET & INFRASTRUCTURES LIMITED	S	30000	16.75
12/9/2011	524754	Gujarat Medi	SUNNY RASHMIKANT THAKKAR	S	25000	16.75
12/9/2011	533520	INDBULL WSL	B M TRADERS	S	328177	3.77
12/9/2011	531401	Khodiyar Inds	PARAG PRAVINKUMAR GANDHI	B	45800	6.27
12/9/2011	532368	LGS Glob	YUUZAA NETWORKS PRIVATE LIMITED	B	460000	50.00
12/9/2011	530273	Liberty Phos	RAOOF RAZAK DHANANI	B	147704	53.10
12/9/2011	530273	Liberty Phos	ANISHA RAOOF DHANANI	B	125000	53.60
12/9/2011	530273	Liberty Phos	SANA YUSUF DHANANI	S	275000	53.33
12/9/2011	533343	Lovable Lingerie	CHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITED	B	88347	565.30
12/9/2011	533343	Lovable Lingerie	A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTD	B	128988	558.05
12/9/2011	533343	Lovable Lingerie	A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTD	S	128988	558.37
12/9/2011	533343	Lovable Lingerie	CHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITED	S	88347	567.01
12/9/2011	517206	Lumax Inds	PRIME SECURITIES LTD	B	50000	349.97
12/9/2011	590117	Mahaveer Infoway-$	POOJA JINESH BHATT	B	38000	18.55
12/9/2011	511702	Parsharti Inv	DEEPAK NYALCHAND ABHANI	B	25000	38.50
12/9/2011	511702	Parsharti Inv	NAVEEN GUPTA	B	22721	38.55
12/9/2011	511702	Parsharti Inv	PRATIBHA SYNTEX LTD.	B	20000	38.45
12/9/2011	511702	Parsharti Inv	KRINA JITENDRAKUMAR VYAS	B	17101	37.68
12/9/2011	511702	Parsharti Inv	MILKWAY MERCANTILES PRIVATE LIMITED	B	20278	38.92
12/9/2011	511702	Parsharti Inv	ASHLESH GUNVANTBHAI SHAH	B	193835	38.72
12/9/2011	511702	Parsharti Inv	FACTS SHARE & STOCK BROKING PVT. LTD.	B	18855	38.52
12/9/2011	511702	Parsharti Inv	ASHLESH GUNVANTBHAI SHAH	S	193835	38.27
12/9/2011	511702	Parsharti Inv	DHARMESH JAYESHKUMAR SONI	S	15616	38.70
12/9/2011	511702	Parsharti Inv	MILKWAY MERCANTILES PRIVATE LIMITED	S	20278	39.00
12/9/2011	511702	Parsharti Inv	KRINA JITENDRAKUMAR VYAS	S	34800	38.71
12/9/2011	511702	Parsharti Inv	MITESHGIRI CHANDANGIRI GOSWAMI	S	20000	38.77
12/9/2011	511702	Parsharti Inv	NAVEEN GUPTA	S	22721	38.76
12/9/2011	530525	Sheetal Diam	ARUN DASHRATHBHAI PRAJAPATI	B	28450	20.60
12/9/2011	530525	Sheetal Diam	ARUN DASHRATHBHAI PRAJAPATI	S	28000	20.48
12/9/2011	531013	Sun Granite	INTER GLOBE FINANCE LTD	B	60000	43.00
* B - Buy, S - Sell
** = Weighted Average Trade Price / Trade Price

12/9/11 ::Categories Turnover (Rs. crore) Clients NRI Proprietary Trade Data

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Categories Turnover

(Rs. crore)

Clients NRI Proprietary

Trade Date Buy Sales Net Buy Sales Net Buy Sales Net

12/9/11 1,603.06 1,500.94 102.11 0.51 0.44 0.07 451.89 467.87 -15.98

9/9/11 2,363.64 2,291.45 72.19 2.66 1.28 1.37 528.93 555.31 -26.38

8/9/11 1,943.75 1,978.83 -35.08 2.82 0.64 2.17 514.94 502.95 11.99

Sep , 11 13,372.52 13,352.37 20.15 12.69 4.47 8.23 3,520.84 3,492.17 28.67

Since 1/1/11 359,507.79 364,170.31 -4,662.52 261.17 179.85 81.32 103,509.11 102,933.07 576.04

12 September 2011

Emkay Alternate Intelligence - Nifty likely to test resistance levels of 5180-5200

Southwest Monsoon - Improvement accelerates :: Emkay

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 12-Sep-2011

BSE, Bulk deals, 12/9/2011

12/9/11 ::Categories Turnover (Rs. crore) Clients NRI Proprietary Trade Data

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(Rs. crore)
	Clients			NRI			Proprietary
Trade Date	Buy	Sales	Net	Buy	Sales	Net	Buy	Sales	Net
12/9/11	1,603.06	1,500.94	102.11	0.51	0.44	0.07	451.89	467.87	-15.98
9/9/11	2,363.64	2,291.45	72.19	2.66	1.28	1.37	528.93	555.31	-26.38
8/9/11	1,943.75	1,978.83	-35.08	2.82	0.64	2.17	514.94	502.95	11.99
Sep , 11	13,372.52	13,352.37	20.15	12.69	4.47	8.23	3,520.84	3,492.17	28.67
Since 1/1/11	359,507.79	364,170.31	-4,662.52	261.17	179.85	81.32	103,509.11	102,933.07	576.04