18 July 2011

Nifty expected to trade in a range ::Emkay

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Nifty expected to trade in a range


View: Overall data indicates the Nifty has an immediate support placed at around the 5500 levels. With most of the Asian indices trading in positive territory today, Nifty is expected to exhibit a similar kind of move. Resistance is likely to prevail at the 200-day EMA placed at around the 5585 levels.
Despite the sell-off observed in the index yesterday, Nifty July futures failed to register any significant accumulation in open interest. The open interest increased marginally by 0.04 million shares to 22.71 million shares. FIIs continued to remain net sellers in index futures segment to the tune of Rs6450 million along with an increase in open interest to 0.48 million contracts from 0.47 million contracts.
Among Nifty July options, Nifty July call strike of 5500 and Nifty July put strike of 5300 added around 2.16 million shares each yesterday. Maximum open interest continues to remain at 5800 call strike (8.51 million shares) and 5500 put strike (8.45 million shares). Nifty July 5400 put strike witnessed closure of 0.50 million shares to 6.57 million shares.  Data indicates the index has an immediate support placed at around the 5500 levels. Any slide below 5500 levels will induce selling pressure in the Nifty targeting levels of 5250-5300.

Techcheck Daily Are we headed for a multi month decline? Likely ::EMkay

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Techcheck Daily
Are we headed for a multi month decline? Likely

n     Chart in Focus: Nifty whipsaws trendline convergence at 5720, nature of the whipsaw hints that it was a false breakout, this should have serious negative impact on prices, expect downsides to accelerate once the 200 DEMA around 5580 gets broken
n     MSCI World Index too enters troubled waters, upsides if any seemed capped but downsides at least till 295-300 remain open
n     Bank Nifty prices continue to trade below key resistances, prices unable to break back within a bullish channel; sign of medium term weakness, crossing 11500 now remains a difficult proposition
n     BSE FMCG Index prices trade below multi year trend line, momentum readings hint at a correction before prices can move higher
n     Heavyweights HUL and ITC carry similar setups, expect corrections to the tune of 10-15% in each of them.
n     Stocks with negative short term view
n     HDFC, Bank Nifty, Dish TV, Asian Paints, Bharti, Tata Motors, HUL, ITC, TCS, L&T, Sun Pharma, Ranbaxy, Wipro

Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd. US 5bn@2015-on track, Accumulate:: Emkay

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Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd.
US 5bn@2015-on track, Retain Accumulate  


ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs231                                        Target Price: Rs260

n     Peguform’s (PF) acquisition appears a strategic fit in terms of product, clients and geography
n     SWS’ (25% equity in MSSL) resistance for 100% exposure in PF (non core business) could be the reason for 51:49 JV between MSSL and SMFL (parent of MSSL) to acquire PF
n     Expect acquisition price to be ~Euro 235mn (3.5x CY10 EV/EVIDTA or 0.18x EV/Sales). SMR was acquired at 0.12x EV/Sales. Expect debt attributable to PF ~Euro150 to 200mn
n     Acquisition can be EPS accretive from first year. Retain Accumulate rating

South Indian Bank Q1FY12 Result Update; Balance sheet growth drives profit; Emkay

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South Indian Bank Q1FY12 Result Update; Balance sheet growth drives profit; Accumulate; Target: Rs30
n    SIB’s Q1FY12 results inline with expectations with NII of Rs2.1bn and net profit of Rs825mn
n    The NII grew by 22.5% to Rs2.1bn led by strong 8.1%qoq growth in advances, albeit NIM’s contracted by 42bps qoq to 2.4% higher than expected
n    The asset quality remained stable with GNPA and NNPA at 1.1% and 0.3%. The provision cover also remained higher at 72.7%
n    We remain positive with 30% CAGR in PAT over FY11-13E, robust Tier I and clean asset quality. Maintain ACCUMULATE with TP of Rs30. High gold loan portfolio a key risk

Tata Consultancy Services -Continues to be on a song - ACCUMULATE ::Emkay

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Tata Consultancy Services
Continues to be on a song


ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs 1,125                                        Target Price: Rs 1,300

n     Inline op performance with rev at US$ 2,412 mn(+7.5% QoQ, est +6.2% QoQ) while mgns slipping by ~230 bps QoQ (V/s exp of ~200 bps). Profit beat driven by higher other income 
n     Broad based growth across verticals/services and geographies. 10 deal wins during the qtr and remains confident of growth citing large deal pipeline ahead.
n     Op metrics performance rock solid yet again. Co remains confident of improving margins ahead and sees no significant supply side headwinds
n     Raise FY12/13E EPS by ~2.4/1.5% respectively to Rs 52.5/62.6 driven primarily by higher other income assumptions. Retain ACCUMULATE with a revised March’12 TP of Rs 1,300

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. – Q1FY12 Result Update ::Unicon

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Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. – Q1FY12 Result Update

High Utilization Levels, Strong Volume Growth drive Q1 Performance

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. (TCS) has once again delivered a stellar performance for the first quarter. High utilization levels and better than expected volume growth have balanced the negative effect of wage hikes and employee additions on net profit margins.

Outlook & Valuation

Strong volume growth and management commentary indicating continued confidence in offshore IT service demand in an uncertain economic environment strengthens our confidence in this stock. Good double digit growth in service verticals like BFSI, Telecom, etc. as well as expansion in emerging markets could improve bottom-line margins going forward. At the current market price, the stock is trading at 21.36x its FY12 earnings estimate. We reiterate our accumulate rating on this stock for a price target of INR 1,280, implying an upside of 14% from current levels.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 18-Jul-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 18-Jul-2011 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES451781257.68400421106.6544055812264.89151.03
INDEX OPTIONS1644194593.481704904768.34153198442645.18-174.86
STOCK FUTURES462381300.35496671444.51115032632364.83-144.16
STOCK OPTIONS9366257.298738240.06431831210.2217.23
      Total-150.76
 
 


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Infosys Limited In line show marred by heightened expectations :Emkay

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Infosys Limited
In line show marred by heightened expectations


ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs2,794                                        Target Price: Rs3,250

n     Infy reported marginally lower than expected operating performance (4.3% QoQ US$ rev growth with a 300 bps QoQ decline) with profit beat driven by higher other income
n     Opmetrics performance mixed with top 5/10 clients growing by ~7.7/5.6% QoQ while Europe up by ~0.5% QoQ despite cross currency aid as Telecom continues to drag(-7% QoQ)
n     FY12 rev guidance unchanged at 18-20% YoY while INR EPS outlook raised to ~Rs 128-130 along expected lines. Sep’11 outlook disappointing at +3.5-5% QoQ given historical record
n     Tweak FY12/13E EPS down by 0.7/0.6% to ~ Rs 138/164, ACCUMULATE with an unchanged TP of Rs 3,250. Macro uncertainty plus INR appreciation remain downside risks

BSE, Bulk deals, 18/7/2011

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Deal DateScrip CodeCompanyClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
18/7/2011526397Alphageo India-$A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDB25804154.60
18/7/2011526397Alphageo India-$A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDS25804154.19
18/7/2011513309Alumeco India-$DEUTSCHE SECURITIES MAURITIUS LIMITEDS800009.01
18/7/2011590006Amrutanjan Health-$A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDB43036804.25
18/7/2011590006Amrutanjan Health-$CHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDB20927806.96
18/7/2011590006Amrutanjan Health-$CHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS PRIVATE LIMITEDS20927807.00
18/7/2011590006Amrutanjan Health-$A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTDS43036805.05
18/7/2011590059APL APOLLONEETA HEMANT ASHARB101984154.99
18/7/2011531320Arsi CosmeticsKUSHAL MUKUND THAKERB3000024.45

NSE, Bulk deals, 18-Jul-2011

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DateSymbolSecurity NameClient NameBuy / SellQuantity TradedTrade Price /
Wght. Avg.
Price
Remarks
18-Jul-2011ALPHAGEOAlphageo (India) LimitedMULTIPLEX CAPITAL LTD.BUY42,842154.40-
18-Jul-2011ALPHAGEOAlphageo (India) LimitedMULTIPLEX CAPITAL LTD.SELL42,842154.60-
18-Jul-2011AMRUTANJANAmrutajan Health LtdCHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS P. LTDBUY20,889806.28-
18-Jul-2011AMRUTANJANAmrutajan Health LtdCHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS P. LTDSELL20,889807.33-
18-Jul-2011AMRUTANJANAmrutajan Health LtdRADHIKA DIPAN MEHTABUY17,244795.24-
18-Jul-2011AMRUTANJANAmrutajan Health LtdRADHIKA DIPAN MEHTASELL17,244796.62-
18-Jul-2011ASSAMCOAssam Company India LtdCRESTA FUND LTD.BUY130,00,00015.30-
18-Jul-2011ASSAMCOAssam Company India LtdINVEST INDIA (MAURITIUS) LTD-FDISELL130,00,00015.30-
18-Jul-2011ATLASCYCLEAtlas Cycles (Haryana) LtMANIPUT INVESTMENTS PVT. LTD.BUY17,084309.98-
18-Jul-2011ATLASCYCLEAtlas Cycles (Haryana) LtMANIPUT INVESTMENTS PVT. LTD.SELL17,084310.10-
18-Jul-2011AVTNPLAVT Natural Products LimiBP FINTRADE PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY53,243361.58-
18-Jul-2011AVTNPLAVT Natural Products LimiBP FINTRADE PRIVATE LIMITEDSELL49,543361.55-
18-Jul-2011EXCELINFOExcel Infoways LimitedBP FINTRADE PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY2,45,26024.10-
18-Jul-2011EXCELINFOExcel Infoways LimitedBP FINTRADE PRIVATE LIMITEDSELL2,45,26023.91-
18-Jul-2011EXCELINFOExcel Infoways LimitedDHAVAL ANILBHAI SHAHBUY1,95,65523.70-
18-Jul-2011EXCELINFOExcel Infoways LimitedDHAVAL ANILBHAI SHAHSELL1,95,65523.81-
18-Jul-2011EXCELINFOExcel Infoways LimitedJHAVERI TRADING AND INVESTMENT PVT LTDBUY15,00024.05-
18-Jul-2011EXCELINFOExcel Infoways LimitedJHAVERI TRADING AND INVESTMENT PVT LTDSELL2,40,00023.58-
18-Jul-2011EXCELINFOExcel Infoways LimitedTRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.BUY1,88,04524.14-
18-Jul-2011EXCELINFOExcel Infoways LimitedTRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.SELL1,93,04523.79-
18-Jul-2011GDLGateway Distriparks LimitCITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKETS MAURITIUS PVT LTDBUY30,00,000124.00-
18-Jul-2011GDLGateway Distriparks LimitFIRST STATE INVESTMENTS(HONGKONG) LIMITED A\C RBS GL EMG MKSELL5,63,964124.00-