28 April 2011

Techcheck Daily -Chart in Focus: CRB Commodities Index ::Emkay

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Techcheck Daily
Chart in Focus: CRB Commodities Index

n     Chart in Focus: CRB Commodity Index, next few sessions crucial as prices approach the crucial trend deciding 61.8% retracement levels, the wave setups looks copybook and hint at medium term downsides
n     Why 5650 on Nifty remains a crucial medium term support ? Similar medium trend channels on Bank Nifty, BSE 100 and 500
n     Nifty prices fail to go past hurdle, short term momentum rolls over, expect a cool off towards the lower end of the trading range around 5700
n     Nifty 5348 continues to remain a high probability starting point for a fresh bull market
n     INR likely triple bottom in place, 44 remains crucial support going forward
n     Stocks with positive short term view
n     BHEL, DLF, Bharti, Tata Motors (stop 1153), Maruti
n     Stocks with negative short term view
n     HLL, RIL, HDFC, Yes Bank (stop 336), Tata Steel  
  

Ansal API - IDFC SSKI

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Ansal Properties & Infrastructure (CMP: Rs44)            
Mkt Cap: Rs6.9bn; US$156m       Bloomberg code (APIL IN)


Ansal Properties & Infrastructure Limited (APIL), a well-entrenched and experienced developer in North India, is taking firm strides towards regaining its old glory. APIL is leveraging its core competency of developing large integrated townships in tier II cities with focus on affordable housing. Impressive FY11 sales of >24msf (average realization, Rs1,067psf) underline this resurgence. With ~27msf in cumulative sales (~Rs20bn in value), the 3,530-acre Lucknow township has crossed the hump and, along with the upcoming 2,504-acre Greater Noida township and 108-acre Essencia II township in Gurgaon, is expected to drive accelerated profit growth. We estimate cash generation of >Rs21bn over FY12-14E (before land payments), which mitigates concerns on managing the Rs15.6bn debt (repayment of Rs6.4bn due in FY12). We initiate coverage with Outperformer and a 12-month price target of Rs120 (25% discount to FY12E NAV of Rs160/share). Any material step-up in land acquisition strategy and inability to refinance debt are key risks.

Techcheck Daily Nifty failure to break past 5910 :: Emkay

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Techcheck Daily
Nifty failure to break past 5910

n     Chart in Focus: Nifty prices fail to go past hurdle, short term momentum rolls over, expect a cool off towards the lower end of the 5700-5900 range
n     Nifty medium term setups remain positive but suggest critical supports around the 5650 mark
n     Nifty 5348 continues to remain a high probability starting point for a fresh bull market
n     Hang Seng trend continuation signals get louder, expect momentum to kick in once 24470 is broken out, 26000 should than be initial targets
n     INR likely triple bottom in place, 44 remains crucial support going forward
n     Stocks with positive short term view
n     DLF, Bharti, Tata Motors (stop 1153), Maruti
n     Stocks with negative short term view
n     HDFC, Yes Bank (stop 336), Tata Steel  
  

ACC - Q1CY2011 Result Update: LKP

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The cement industry has had a robust January to March quarter as the production discipline provided a 25-30% YoY rise in the cement prices during the past 4-6 months. The sharp increase in cement prices has enabled the industry to combat increase in energy prices and increase in cost on account of implementation of VAT. Approaching monsoons and lower construction activities witnessed in recent past could pose an uncertainty to future growth for cement demand. Hence, we believe that cement prices at these levels are not sustainable and could correct by ~ Rs.15-20 per 50kg bag. Thus, in spite of robust performance by ACC in Q1CY11 we refrain from upgrading our earnings estimates. We maintain our NEUTRAL rating with an upward revision in price target to Rs.1065     

Indian banks - Banking monthly: April 2011: CLSA

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􀂉 Key takeaways- management meeting and interviews
􀂉 Round up on news flows- regulatory and company-specific
􀂉 Banking sector round-up- Credit growth, interest rates and liquidity
􀂉 Update on insurance and mutual funds– Flow, market share
􀂉 Valuation– Price performance, comparative matrix, P/B band charts
􀂉 Take a look!, ‘Banking Calendar’, links to our recent reports

Maruti Suzuki: In-line 4Q results :: CLSA

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In-line 4Q results
Maruti’s 4Q net profit at Rs6.6bn was flat YoY and 3% above estimates.
EBITDA margins improved 50bps QoQ, mainly due to lower staff costs. Maruti
is seeing weakening retail demand with footfalls as well as conversions
dropping Feb onwards – in line with the findings of our recent dealer survey –
and sounded tentative on demand outlook. Management sounded sanguine on
component supply post the Japan earthquake and expects production to
remain stable. Slowing industry growth, rising commodity prices and
continuing competitive pressures are likely to keep Maruti’s margins subdued
in FY12. Stock performance could improve in 2HFY12 post Manesar plant
expansion and launch of new UV in 4Q. O-PF.

Sterlite Industries: Strong 4Q results : CLSA

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Strong 4Q results
Sterlite’s 4Q results were strong with net profit rising 39% YoY – above
expectations – though we remain puzzled with the sharp QoQ rise in other
income. Margins expanded QoQ in all divisions helped by strong commodity
and by-product prices. FY12-13 should see strong profit growth boosted by
ramp-up of power capacities in SEL and Balco, metal and silver output in HZL,
full accretion of Anglo-Zinc and higher TC/RCs in copper business. A key
negative in the result was the disclosure that loan to VAL still stands at
Rs80bn, virtually unchanged from FY10. We are not hopeful of this money
coming back. We upgrade FY12 EPS 1% and FY13 EPS 17%. Maintain O-PF.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 28-Apr-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 28-Apr-2011
BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES1628734741.071562024549.6250484114668.12191.45
INDEX OPTIONS2795818070.852610227577.69122595635463.87493.16
STOCK FUTURES2455016486.662491826545.23115899029846.85-58.57
STOCK OPTIONS92827.85151743.15219759.12-15.30
Total610.74


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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 28-Apr-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 28-Apr-2011 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES1628734741.071562024549.6250484114668.12191.45
INDEX OPTIONS2795818070.852610227577.69122595635463.87493.16
STOCK FUTURES2455016486.662491826545.23115899029846.85-58.57
STOCK OPTIONS92827.85151743.15219759.12-15.30
      Total610.74

 

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