19 March 2011

Macquarie Research, Japan quake impact on commodities

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Commodities Comment
Japan quake impact on commodities
Feature article
 The full extent impact of the devastating earthquake and tsunami are not yet
clear at this early stage but appears negative for Uranium in the short and
long run. The near-term impact for thermal coal appears negative for
Newcastle pricing, but we think Japan has the capacity to use 4–8mt of
additional coal to make up for lost nuclear baseload capacity.

Goldman Sachs: Bharti Airtel- Purchase of Qualcomm’s license? Complements 3G/LTE footprint

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Bharti Airtel (BRTI.BO) Rs318.30
Equity Research
Purchase of Qualcomm’s license? Complements 3G/LTE footprint
News
As per WSJ (March 17), Bharti is likely to buy Qualcomm’s India
broadband wireless licenses for US$ 1.2 bn. We note that Qualcomm has
licenses in Delhi, Mumbai, Kerala and Haryana and paid US$ 1.1 bn in Jun
2010 during BWA (Broadband Wireless Access) spectrum auctions. There
are no comments from Bharti on this possible transaction till now.
Analysis
If true, 1) Bharti would gain access to the lucrative high ARPU Mumbai and
Delhi circles (RIL owned Infotel is the only LTE (Long Term Evolution)
competitor in these circles); 2) Bharti will have acquired the license almost
at the same cost as Qualcomm acquired it for in Jun ‘10 but at a lower risk
as now there would be better visibility on the roadmap of LTE ; 3) Given
Qualcomm has always expressed interest in selling its licenses (as per its
press releases), we believe Bharti’s move to acquire licenses would keep
any potential new competitor out. Internationally, historical precedence
indicates that incumbents have generally been aggressive in acquiring any
spectrum up for sale, in order to strengthen their dominance and keep
potential competitors away. From a Qualcomm perspective (as indicated in
its press releases and media articles like Business Standard, Oct-29 ‘10) its
intention to promote LTE over WiMax has been achieved and therefore it
makes logical sense to exit the market (as it is not an operator).
Implications
Assuming this transaction goes ahead and is fully debt funded at Bharti’s
average cost of debt, we estimate it would reduce EPS by 1.6%/2.4% for
FY12/FY13E. However, it would open up an opportunity to tap the nascent
zero-penetrated “tablet market”. We believe LTE in India will complement
3G and will be used by operators to target the “tablet market”. We note
that media articles (Business Standard; Feb 16) mentioned that Infotel (the
other LTE operator) has zeroed in on seven-inch and 10–inch Androidbased
tablets with prices starting at Rs 8,000 and data plans likely to start
as low as Rs 1,000 for three to six months. We reiterate Buy (on CL) and TP.
INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP
Asia Pacific Buy List
Asia Pacific Conviction Buy List
Coverage View: Neutral

India Strategy Rate hike – not the last one; RBI, Macquarie Research,

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


India Strategy
Rate hike – not the last one
Event
 Rate hike on expected lines: The RBI continued to be in tightening mode in
its policy review meeting on March 17. The central bank raised the repo and
reverse repo rates by 25bp each, in line with expectations. We believe
inflation will continue to remain elevated forcing RBI to continue with
tightening.
 Market – looking for catalysts: The market correction since Jan’11 appears
to have largely factored in the idiosyncratic factors for India - persistent high
inflation, further rate hikes, slowdown in growth and the near-term overhang
from state elections. Nervousness remains due to a possible oil shock, and a
positive catalyst is awaited. We believe materials (oil, steel and cement) and
IT should deliver strong results in April-May and look ripe for picking. Our top
picks here are JSP, RIL, Infosys and India Cement.
Impact
 Inflation – is a structural issue and has no easy fix: The February reading
of the WPI came in higher than street expectations. We expect recent
increases in the coal price by Coal India to show up in inflation over the next
two months. Already cement and steel prices have moved up. And since the
captive power cost of most industries goes up, it will show up in manufactured
goods gradually. Also, we expect the government to increase diesel prices
post May elections and Coal India is threatening a further coal price hike,
hence inflation may not reduce for next few months.
 Margins over sales volume: Most sectors have adopted the strategy of
retaining margins while sacrificing volume. Banks have aggressively raised
lending rates to compensate for rising deposit rates. Cement companies are
maintaining supply discipline to push prices up. High steel prices seem to
have reduced demand, with clients citing higher working capital requirements.
 Investment – some signs of life, execution lagging: While we have seen
some initiatives by the government to grant environmental clearances, actual
work will likely take at least 6 months to start. In many cases the final approval
letters have not been issued even after 3-4months of in-principle approval. In
addition, rising interest rates have increased the hurdle rate for new projects.
 Earnings revisions continue the downward trend: The trend across
sectors is negative at the moment, with the exception of IT. The consensus
FY12E Sensex EPS has fallen 3% since reaching its peak in Nov’10,
reflecting a 19% growth over FY11, 200bp lower than what was estimated
back in April’10.
Outlook
 Position your portfolio for Q4 results - prefer global cyclicals: Q4 results
remain the key catalyst in the near term. Our overweight sectors - IT,
Materials, Healthcare and Energy - look well poised to deliver strong results.
Our Top-10 Focus Stocks continue to outperform MSCI India by 400bp since
inception in August 2010. Stocks that have outperformed within this basket
are Tata Steel (+17%), ITC (+8.4%) and Infosys (+3.4%).


Reliance Industries -Lower volumes: RIL NAV hit could be 3-5%:: UBS,

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


UBS Investment Research
Reliance Industries
Lower volumes: RIL NAV hit could be 3-5%
􀂄 Gas production could be as low as 47 mmscmd in FY13
Key takeaways from media reports on Reliance Industries’ (RIL) reply to the
Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) about KG-D6 are: 1) production from
the block could be as low as 47 mmscmd (1.66bcf/d)—38 mmscmd (1.34bcf/d)
from D1-D3 fields and 9mmscmd (0.31bcf/d) from the MA field; 2) the reservoir
profile is more complex than expected; and 3) the company is observing higherthan-
expected water cut (percentage of water in the well effluent). The company
maintains that these are estimates that can be updated on further clarity about
reservoir characteristics. Reliance has issued no official communication.

Port volume update: Container volumes outshine :: Centrum

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Container volumes outshine
Volumes at India’s 12 major ports remained lacklustre
with a marginal increase of 1.3% YoY and a decline of
10.2% MoM to 46.4mn tonnes during February 2011. This
was primarily on the back of a decline in POL (Petroleum,
oil & lubricants) and iron ore throughput which offset the
gains recorded by containers. POL volumes declined 5.9%
YoY to 13.6mn tonnes and iron ore traffic declined 6.8%
YoY to 9.2mn tonnes. Container traffic grew 13.6% YoY to
9.5mn tonnes and coal volume grew 5.2% YoY to 5.5mn
tonnes.

Canara Bank -Raise capital via QIP; Attractive risk-return; Buy :: BofA Merrill Lynch

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Canara Bank
Raise capital via QIP; Attractive risk-return; Buy
􀂄 Canara Bank: Raised US$442mn via QIP
Canara Bank has raised ~Rs20bn (US$442mn) via QIP to augment their capital
base and fund future growth opportunities. This is 7.5% dilution (post-money). The
QIP was done at Rs604/shr, which was at a discount of ~3% from CMP. The
Government’s holding in the bank will come down to 67.7% from 73.2% post the
QIP. We est. the bank’s Tier 1 will increase by ~150bps post QIP issue, to ~10%.

Suzlon Energy -Domestic competition heating up : Macquarie Research

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Suzlon Energy
Domestic competition heating up
Event
�� We note competition for Suzlon in the domestic Indian market is heating up.
This is worrisome especially given that overseas markets remain dry. We
believe debt repayment from CY12 could see some pressure unless volumes
pick up meaningfully. Retain Underperform with a price target of Rs42.

JP Morgan: Meeting notes with TCS CEO: Demand environment remains solid, and TCS is making the most of it

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Tata Consultancy Services Overweight
TCS.BO, TCS IN
Meeting notes with the CEO: Demand environment
remains solid, and TCS is making the most of it


We met with Mr. N Chandrasekaran, the CEO/MD of TCS. Mr. Chandrasekaran is
confident that TCS can continue to make the most of a strong demand environment
• Demand environment is solid across verticals, horizontals and geographies.
Demand is strong and all-round. TCS is doing well in capturing its share of wallets
from both existing and new clients. Notably, we note that the outlook in BFSI
(financial services), retail, energy and utilities, which have registered abovecompany
average growth, continues to be good, while lagging verticals such as
manufacturing and telecom will strongly participate in FY12 growth. In terms of
service lines, traction continues to be healthy in testing, infra management, BPO (in
all of these service lines, TCS has sector leadership) and discretionary spending is
ticking well (enterprise solutions). In essence, growth is all-round.

Chinese HRC export prices plunge :: JP Morgan

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Chinese prices correct sharply: Chinese export HRC prices have
corrected sharply with prices falling below $700/MT FOB from as high as
$775-800/MT. CIS export prices have also corrected. Chinese domestic
HRC prices are down only 6% from peak levels of Feb and hence the
sharp export price decline (~10%) is puzzling. Exports in Feb were weak
with exports at the lowest level since Sept-09. While spot iron ore has also
corrected it is down only $20-25/MT from peak levels (implying a cost
reduction on a spot basis of ~$35/MT v/s steel price decline of $75-90/MT
(peak to now levels). While prices in Europe and US have moved up,
the sharp decline in China revives the scare of exports increasing out
from China (there is still an export tax in China on steel exports).

RBI Working Group on Monetary Policy recommends a single policy rate with a "deficit" liquidity regime :: RBS

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��



RBI Working Group on Monetary Policy recommends a single policy rate with a
"deficit" liquidity regime



The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has released the report of the Working Group on the
Operating Procedure of the Monetary Policy. The Group was set up to review the current
monetary policy mechanism operated by the RBI through its Liquidity Adjustment Facility
(LAF) with two policy rates – revrse repo and repo rates, with the difference in the policy
rates defining the policy rate “corridor”.
To improve the efficiency in the transmission of monetary policy signals, ie, ensure that the
rates in the banking system move in tandem with the policy rates, the group has made some
significant recommendations for modifying the way the LAF operates.
The key recommendations on modified LAF are:
1. The modified LAF should operate in a “deficit liquidity” mode and the liquidity level
should be contained around (+) / (-) 1% of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) of
banks’ for optimal monetary transmission.
This implies that the RBI under the modified LAF regime will look to keep the banking system
liquidity in a “deficit” mode on a continuous basis. In other words, banks’ would be borrowing
from the RBI at the repo rate on a regular basis. This will ensure that any change in the repo
rate is reflected in changes in bank lending and deposit rates much more swiftly. This ties in
with the introduction of the base rate methodology of loan pricing introduced last year.
2. The repo rate should be the single policy rate to unambiguously signal the stance
of monetary policy. It will operate within a corridor set by the bank rate and the
reverse repo rate. As the repo rate changes, the bank rate and the reverse repo
rate should change automatically.
This is in line with international practice where most central banks have only one policy rate
and that helps in clearer communication of the policy stance as against maintaining a policy
rate band and allowing short-term rates move around the band depending on liquidity
conditions. In 2010, it was very clear that the approach of managing short-term money
market and call money rates within a band was not working effectively. As under conditions
of excess liquidity, call money rate tends to be lower than the reverse repo rate and under
conditions of tight liquidity, call money remains above the repo rate. That has reduced the
effectiveness of the policy rate band for signalling the monetary policy stance of the RBI.
However, to maintain a single policy rate to make the monetary transmission more efficient,
the RBI will have to ensure deficit liquidity in the banking system.
3. The reverse repo rate will constitute the lower bound of the corridor and the bank
rate will constitute the upper. The optimal width of the policy corridor will be fixed at
150bp and should not be changed in normal circumstances.


A defined corridor for the movement of policy rates would help curb volatility in call money and
other money market rates. Under the existing LAF, the corridor has ranged from 100 to 300bp, as
the RBI did not define a corridor and depending on the inflationary and liquidity conditions, the
RBI focused on one policy rate. This was particularly so in 2008, when inflation touched double
digits on the back of strong demand conditions and the RBI raised the repo rate consistently to
signal its monetary policy stance along with maintaining tight liquidity conditions by raising the
CRR.
4. The corridor should be asymmetric, with the spread between the policy repo rate and
reverse repo rate twice as much as the spread between the repo rate and the bank rate.
With a corridor of 150bp, the bank rate could be fixed at repo rate plus 50bp and the
reverse repo rate at repo rate minus 100bp. The reverse repo rate will have a negative
spread on the repo rate and it will be the rate at which the RBI will absorb liquidity under
the LAF.
This would ensure that the cost incurred by the RBI in mopping up excess liquidity from the
banking system during conditions of surplus liquidity remains manageable and to dissuade banks
from parking funds with the RBI. However, the RBI’s endeavour would be to maintain deficit
liquidity conditions in the banking system.
5. The RBI will provide liquidity at the bank rate under a new collateralised exceptional
standing facility (ESF) up to 1% of NDTL of banks to be carved out of the required
statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) portfolio.
Such a facility has been given from time to time to banks to deal with exceptionally tight liquidity
conditions. This proposed liquidity facility will be a standing facility and will help banks to borrow
funds from the RBI, at the bank rate which will be higher than the repo rate. This measure will be
particularly helpful in preventing a persistent spike in call money rates above the repo rate and
thus help keep the call money rate anchored around the repo rate.
6. Persistent liquidity in excess of (+) / (-) 1% of the NDTL should be managed through
other instruments such as outright open market operations (OMO), cash reserve ratio
(CRR) and market stabilisation scheme (MSS).
This is a significant recommendation and will make it easier for banks to manage liquidity, as at
any point in time the RBI would try and manage liquidity between (+) / (-) 1% of the NDTL.
To effectively manage liquidity however, the RBI will have to take recourse of the OMO route to
inject or take liquidity out of the system. Open market purchases of government bonds by the RBI
have had limited success, as banks, in a rising interest rate environment, are reluctant to sell their
bonds kept in the held-to-maturity (HTM) category, as that exposes them to mark-to-market
losses. To make these OMOs more effective, the working group is urging banks to move to mark
to market of their SLR bond portfolio.
Another significant recommendation of the working group is regarding auctioning of government’s
surplus cash balances held by the RBI. As has been the experience this year, the central
government’s excess cash balances have created significant and persistent liquidity shortages in
the system due to a lag in government spending and large cash balances building up as a result
with the RBI. Auctioning of these surplus balances for a short period of time would further help in
injecting liquidity during tight liquidity conditions and help in stabilizing short-term rates.
Overall it appears that the modified LAF with a single policy rate with a specific objective of
maintaining deficit liquidity conditions and a defined liquidity band would help in making monetary
policy more effective. The modified LAF would also help banks to manage liquidity in a much
better manner, thereby stabilising short-term rates.

CLSA: J&K Bank:: Roadshow feedback; price target Rs930

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Roadshow feedback
We hosted the management of J&K Bank- Mr. Mushtaq Ahmad (Chairman
and CEO) and Mr. Parvez Ahmed (President, Head IR) for roadshow in
Hong Kong. The management reiterated bank’s strong presence in home
state that dominates it branch network and balance sheet, besides being
highly profitable. Over next 2-3 years, management plans to grow loan
book at 20-25% Cagr, led by growth in the working capital loans to high
quality borrowers outside J&K and retail loans in the home state.

Update on Japan earthquake damage : Macquarie Research

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


MacqTech Express
Update on Japan earthquake damage
Event
 We update on the earthquake impact to the Japanese electronic component
supply chain following the first report Electronic components – Mostly
infrastructural impact on Monday, 14 March.

India Pharmaceuticals Road-show Takeaway: Interest is high : Macquarie Research

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


India Pharmaceuticals
Road-show Takeaway: Interest is high
Event
 We present key takeaways from our marketing trip to the US and EU
where we met with over 70 investors. Valuation post the recent correction
was now cited as reasonable and investors were looking for ideas to buy.
Defensive characteristics, emerging market exposure and patent
expiries were cited as key reasons to go overweight on the sector.

19 March 2011: IPO, Grey market premium : PTC India, Lovable, SBI Bond

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Company Name
Offer Price
Premium

(Rs.)
(Rs.)
Lovable Lingerie Ltd.
205 (Upper Price Band)
55 to 60
PTC India Financial Services
26 to 28
Discount
SBI Bond
10000
290 to 300


India Strategy – RBI hikes rates by 25bp, as expected :: RBS

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


RBI hiked the repo and reverse repo rate by 25bp today, in line with expectations. It expects
to persist with its anti-inflationary stance - so expect at least another 50bp of rate hikes this
calendar.
RBI hiked policy rates by 25bp
􀀟 The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) earlier today in its mid-quarter monetary policy review
for March hiked both the repo rate (to 6.75%) and the reverse repo rate (to 5.75%) by
25bp. This hike was in line with RBS and consensus expectations.
Anti-inflationary stance to be maintained
􀀟 RBI expects to maintain its current anti-inflationary stance; as such, we expect at least
another 50bp of rate hikes this calendar.
􀀟 RBI expects inflation risks to remain on the upside as domestic fuel prices are yet to
adjust fully to global prices, and demand side pressures are persistent (as reflected in
non-food manufacturing inflation).
􀀟 The Reserve Bank also raised its March 2011 WPI inflation target to around 8% from its
earlier target of 7%, to take into account February's acceleration in core manufactured
products inflation, higher international crude prices, and the increase in administered coal
prices.
􀀟 The weekly inflation data for 5 March 2011 was also released today. The fuel and power
WPI increased 3.6% week on week primarily due to higher administered prices of coal -
coking coal up 33%, non-coking coal up 27%, and lignite up 17%. Coal India had raised
prices for select grades of coal in the last week of February. This increase in the fuel &
power WPI should add 55 bp to the headline inflation number for March.
RBI's macro outlook
􀀟 Per the RBI's statement, "Underlying inflationary pressures have accentuated, even as
risks to growth are emerging. Rising global commodity prices, particularly oil, are a major
contributor to both developments."
􀀟 RBI now expects a FY11 current account deficit of 2.5% of GDP, much lower than its
>3% expectation in its second quarter review of monetary policy in early November due
to the recent robust export performance.


Investment conclusion
􀀟 Market level valuations are now close to historical averages, with MSCI India trading at a 12M
forward P/E of around 14.5-15x versus a ten-year historical average of ~14.2x.
􀀟 Though headline yoy WPI inflation should moderate from current levels of 8.3%, it is unlikely
to revert to the RBI's comfort level of 4-5% anytime over the next four-five months. As such,
inflation will continue to be a macro concern for India.
􀀟 We would wait for more attractive valuations (~10% below current levels), and more clarity on
the inflation picture to recommend aggressively buying Indian equities.
􀀟 Crude oil prices continue to be a wild card with every US$10 swing in prices impacting India's
current account deficit by 50bp, and its fiscal deficit by 20-30bp.

Thermax - near-term concerns; long-term outlook positive; Buy :Edelweiss

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


As we understand from industry sources, the SKS Group has recently awarded an
EPC contract to Cethar Vessels for its upcoming IPP near Raigarh (300 MWX4), where
Thermax was also one of the strong bidding participant. We had built in certain large
value IPPs for Thermax between FY11E and FY12E, which we are now trimming down
to build in a lower growth rate, given this recent order loss and slow down in private
IPPs.
􀂃 Revising down earnings for FY12E and FY13E
We are revising down our order intake assumption for FY11 and FY12 17% and
18%, respectively, building in slower thermal order intake, which we had earlier
maintained at INR 70 bn and INR 91 bn for FY11E and FY12E, respectively. This
revision is largely on the back of muted near-term outlook on the IPP market,
which is expected to revive post Q1FY12. Thus, we cut our FY12E & FY13E EPS
by 12.8% & 13%, respectively.
􀂃 Stock down 35% since Nov 2010; market factors in concerns
Thermax has seen a sharp correction of more than 35% since November 2010
given macro concerns with respect to private sector capex in the power sector,
from where the company derives its major revenues. While we believe near-term
pain in terms of absence of large value ticket orders could persist for a while, the
stock will re-bound sharply once the private sector comes back into action.
􀂃 Outlook and valuations: Sustainable business model; maintain ‘BUY’
Bleak outlook for the power equipment space has led to muted order intake for
companies exposed to both public as well as private utilities in the past two to
three quarters. Having said that, we believe, while Thermax is undergoing a
rough patch, the company’s prospects on long-term basis are bright, given its
strong clientele in the captive side, strong balance sheet, RoEs and RoCEs which
reflect its operating efficiency and execution. We maintain our ‘BUY/Sector
Outperformer’ recommendation/ rating on the stock, which is currently trading
at a P/E of 18.6x and 15.6x FY11E and FY12E, respectively.

Goldman Sachs, India January industrial production: A better print

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


The Industrial Production Index (IP) grew 3.7% yoy in January, above the revised 2.5% yoy (from 1.6% yoy)
growth in December. The IP reading was higher than the market consensus of 2.9% yoy and largely in line with
our expectations of 3.4% yoy growth. Sequentially, IP rose 1.2 % mom, s.a. in January after 2.0% mom growth in
December.
The upward surprise was mainly due to a spike in consumer goods. Consumer goods increased by 11.3% yoy
as compared to 3.7 % yoy in December, driven by high  growth in both consumer durables and consumer nondurables. Durable goods continued to grow at an elevated 23.3% yoy, after the 18.8% yoy growth in the previous
month. Consumer non-durables growth rebounded to 6.9% yoy after being negative in the last couple of months.
The lumpy Capital Goods Index declined sharply by 18.6% yoy after the fall of 9.3% yoy in previous month.
The January reading of IP suggests that activity is not decelerating sharply, and is in line with other robust
activity indicators. Recent data on PMI, motor vehicle sales, and non-oil import growth have been robust.
We expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to hike policy rates by 25 bp in the March 17, 2011 meeting.
Beyond that, we believe the RBI will hike policy rates  by another 50 bp in calendar year 2011. WPI inflation
numbers for February will be released on March 14, and we expect it to come in at 7.8% yoy.

India February WPI: Unexpectedly high : Goldman Sachs

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


February WPI inflation came in at 8.3% yoy, significantly higher than consensus and our expectations of a
7.8% yoy increase. The increase was mainly due to a jump in core inflation. On a sequential basis, headline
inflation accelerated by 0.8% mom s.a. from the 0.1% mom rise in January. Worryingly, the December headline
number was revised up to 9.4% yoy from 8.4% yoy.
Moderation in food prices, but core inflation rose sharply. Non-food manufactured inflation, the Reserve Bank
of India’s (RBI) measure of core, rose significantly 1.6% mom s.a., after a 0.2% mom increase in January. On a
yoy basis, core jumped to 6.1% yoy from 4.8% yoy in the previous month. Food prices declined by 2% mom s.a.,
from the 1.3% mom increase in January, mainly due to a fall in prices of fruits and vegetables.
The February WPI number suggests that inflation is still on a rising trajectory despite the favorable base.
The increase in core inflation indicates that the pressure from demand remains elevated, and higher input prices
are seeping through. Going forward, we think inflation will likely peak in 2Q2011 (see India: When will inflation
peak? Asia Economics Flash, February 9, 2011), though the February high print poses risks to the upside on the
timing and the magnitude of the peak in inflation.
With the high print, we think a rate hike by the RBI is almost a certainty. We expect the RBI to hike both repo
and reverse repo rates by 25 bp in the March 17 meeting. Beyond that, we believe the RBI will hike policy rates by
another 50 bp in calendar year 2011

Reliance Industries- FY13 D6 prod may fall to 47mmscmd :: RBS

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Reliance Industries 
FY13 D6 prod may fall to 47mmscmd 
RIL has submitted to DGH that the gas production from KG-D6 may fall to
47mmscmd in FY13. Further the five new wells proposed to be drilled up to FY13
can't be brought to production until mid 2014.
! As per Indian Petro (a publication we subscribe to), RIL has submitted to DGH that gas
production from the KG-D6 fields may fall to 47mmscmd in FY13 from the current levels of
51-52mmscmd. This is in reply to earlier comments by DGH that the gas production from KGD6 would rise to 67mmscmd in April 2011. RIL is attributing increasing water cut trends in the
wells which could bring down the production further.

Goldman Sachs: BuyTata Steel- Jamshedpur plant visit: Expansion project on track; Conviction Buy

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��



Tata Steel (TISC.BO)
Buy  Equity Research
Jamshedpur plant visit: Expansion project on track; Conviction Buy
What's changed
We visited Tata Steel’s integrated plant at Jamshedpur, Jharkhand; our key
takeaways include: 1) Execution of growth projects is on track: 2.9 mtpa
capacity expansion project is on schedule with phased commissioning of
various facilities from Aug 2011. The pace of project execution is impressive,
with about 30,000 people engaged at the project site. More than the scale, the
complexity of managing a project of this size within the constraints of space
and resources is notable. 2) Downstream expansion to maintain share of
value-added products in the medium term: The downstream 0.6 mtpa
continuous annealing and processing line (JV with Nippon Steel) for autograde cold-rolled steel is making good progress and is scheduled to be
commissioned by 2013. Capacity expansion at Tinplate subsidiary and JV with
BlueScope would further strengthen the downstream presence, in our view.
3) Strong focus on achieving higher raw material integration: Tata
Steel remains committed to maintaining 50% self sufficiency in coking coal
and 100% in iron ore, post expansion. As such, the focus is on commencing
operations at developmental mines at Ankua, Kotre, etc., over the next 3-5 yrs.

Buy Phillips Carbon Black -Management meet note :: ShareKhan

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


We recently met the management of Phillips Carbon Black Ltd (PCBL) to learn
about the company’s business prospects. We present below the key take-away
from our meeting.
Organic growth will continue to drive future prospect
The company’s business is volume driven so the management continues to focus
on capacity addition to drive its growth. After adding 90,000 tonne of fresh capacity
in FY2010, the company is at the final stage of adding another 50,000 tonne of
carbon black capacity in Mundra with a captive power plant (CPP) of 8MW. We
believe this plant will get operational in Q1FY2012. In the first year of its operations
the 50,000-tonne capacity will naturally boost the volume in FY2012; however, we
believe healthy utilisation can be achieved in FY2013 only. Hence, PCBL is expected
to witness a significant volume growth in both FY2012 and FY2013. Also, the
company is adding 10MW of power capacity at Cochin and this plant should go on
stream in Q1FY2012.
Vietnam expansion plan, as next growth trigger, is on track
PCBL’s next focus is on expansion of its business in Vietnam. It plans to add 50,000
tonne of capacity along with a 12MW CPP in Vietnam. For the project the company
has joined hands with Vietnam National Chemical Corporation (VINACHEM) and
has an 80% stake in the joint venture. Moreover, PCBL has signed a joint venture
agreement with three Vietnamese government-owned tyre companies, Casumina,
Da Nang Rubber and Sao Rubber. This additional capacity is expected to come on
stream in FY2014. The Rs450-crore project will be set up on a 2:1 debt-equity
contribution basis. It will set up 55,000 tonne of capacity in the first phase of the
project, which will be completed in two years, at an expected capital expenditure
(capex) of Rs100 crore.
PCBL has also chalked out a plan to increase its domestic capacity in Orissa and in
south India. The Orissa project has already been finalised; however, the plan to
expand its capacity in south India has yet to be finalised.


Power to drive profitability
The power business has been a high-margin business for
PCBL as it generates power from waste heat. Hence, the
power generation cost for PCBL is around Rs0.5 per unit
on a sales realisation of about Rs3 per unit, indicating an
e a r n i n g s   b e f o r e   i n t e r e s t ,   t a x ,   d e p r e c i a t i o n   a n d
amortisation (EBITDA) margin of more than 80%. With the
ongoing expansion at the power plant in Cochin its total
power generation capacity would reach 76MW. We believe
the power business will continue to add cream to its
margin and profitability. Currently, the power division
generates about one-third of its profit and should continue
to do so for the next few years.
Near-term concerns could affect the stock price
Carbon black feed stock (CBFS) is the major raw material
used to manufacture carbon black. CBFS prices have shot
up recently in line with the rise in crude oil prices. On
the other hand, it seems difficult to pass on the entire
increase in the raw material cost to tyre manufacturers.
Hence, we expect the company to witness margin pressure
in the near term which would affect its Q4FY2011 and
Q1FY2012 numbers too. As a result, its stock could also
face pressure in the near term.
Valuation and view
We are positive about the expansion move of the company
and its impressive share in the carbon black market, both
in India and across the globe. However, the recent spike
in its raw material cost led by a rise in crude oil prices
could pressurise its margin for some time, as it seems
difficult to pass on the hike to the tyre manufacturers in
the near term. These near-term concerns could affect
the stock’s performance in the days ahead. We have
factored in a CBFS rate of $420 per tonne, as CBFS prices
have gone above the $400 level and even touched $450
for a while. We retain our estimates for now and will
revise our CBFS price assumption if CBFS surges further
and stabilises at a higher level.
At the current market price, the PCBL stock trades at
attractive valuations of 3.2x FY2012E earnings and 3x
FY2012E enterprise value (EV)/EBITDA. We maintain our
Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of
Rs212, based on 4x EV/EBITDA of FY2012E.

Energy: Oil on the boil will make India toil :Kotak Sec

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Energy
India
Oil on the boil will make India toil. Ongoing social and political unrest in the MENA
region may keep crude oil prices high despite ample OPEC spare capacity (on paper)
and weakening global fundamentals. India faces a Hobson’s choice between (1) higher
subsidies and government borrowing and (2) higher inflation. In reality, we will see
both. We rule out a sustained improvement in refining margins given significant new
capacity additions and continued global over-supply

Buy Nestle India - Analyst meet update :: RBS

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Nestle India
Analyst meet update
Nestle management highlighted near-term head winds on margins due to rising
material costs, corporate tax rates and adverse budget implications. It is
witnessing strong growth from smaller cities and towns, and hence is preparing
itself for higher growth post 2012 when new expansions go on stream.
Management highlighted it is facing a challenging year ahead
! The management's key concern has been on the rising raw material costs through 2010, and
a further acceleration in January and February 2011. It indicated that its index of raw material,
which rose by 12% in 2008, remained stable in 2009, before rising by 10% in 2010. There has
very sharp upward movement in Q1 2011 in raw materials like coffee, palm oil and the
volatality in the prices of all key materials is a concern. However, there has been a correction
in prices of most key raw materials from recent highs in March 2011. The management also
indicated that it has taken some good buying decisions in late 2010, and early 2011 which
should help it to manage costs in the near term. Besides, the above, they indicated the recent
Union Budget, which raised excise duty and service tax on certain items, will increase Nestle
India's excise 50bps on net sales, while, the tax cuts (surcharge) would reduce burden by
10bps.
Nestle India is making good progress in its capacity expansions
! NI has embarked on a major capital expenditure programme across all its manufacturing
plants to increase capacities. At its Mooga plant it is de-bottlenecking its capacities, at
Samalka it is doubling its infant nutrition products capacity, at its Goa plants it is raising
capacity of noodles and soups, at Ponda Plant it is raising its chocolates and confectionery
manufacturing capacities, at Nangangud Plant it is raising its noodles manufacturing capacity,
and in Pantnagar it is investing in pasta manufacturing. While, the management did not
disclose its overall CAPEX expenditure, it indicated that $450mn of ECB is being raised from
Nestle SA mainly for these expenditure programmes. In most the above plants, its has
committed 60-85% of the estimated investment, and expects commissioning in end 2011 and
early 2012. This will fuel stronger volume growth in 2012 and beyond.


Growth opportunity and outlook remains robust.
! NI is now increasingly focusying on increasing its distribution points in smaller towns and
cities. In 2010, it has added 464,000 new points of sale. The management stated that in 2010,
while the company as whole, achieved 21.9% growth, the growth has lower than company
average in Tier 1 cities, while, it was very strong in tier 2-4 cities. NI has sustained a healthy
double digit growth for the last 16 quarters, and management remained extremly confident of
growth opportunties in the medium term and long term in India. Its " Nescafe" brand has seen
a good pick up in growth in the 2H 2011. As regards, the emerging competition in "noodles"
segment, management was critical on competitive strengths of some its competitors, and
stated that NI is very strongly positioned in this category selling around 1.5bn packs annually

India: RBI raises inflation forecast, continues rate hike :Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


RBI revises upwards March inflation outlook to around 8.0% YoY from 7.0%
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised its overnight repo rate (at which it lends
to commercial banks) 25bps to 6.75% at its mid-quarterly monetary policy review
on March 17 (Figure 1). It also raised its reverse repo rate (at which it pays
interests on deposits from commercial banks) 25bps to 5.75%. It maintained the
cash reserve ratio (CRR)  of 6.00% and 24.0% statutory liquidity ratio (Figure
1).This was the RBI’s second rate hike of 2011 after raising interest rates at its
January 25 quarterly monetary policy review and the eighth hike since it
embarked on a policy of monetary tightening on March 19, 2010.
The RBI’s decision to raise interest rates comes against a backdrop of increasing
domestic inflationary pressure. India’s wholesale price index (WPI) for February
(announced March 14) rose 8.3% YoY, exceeding the market consensus forecast
of 7.8%. At its mid-quarterly review, the RBI said that food-price inflation,
particularly for vegetables, had slowed, but emphasized that fuel prices were still
high and non-food manufactured goods inflation rose to 6.1% in February from
4.8% in January (Figure 2). The bank also pointed out that accelerating inflation
is spreading to the manufacturing industry as manufacturers pass on higher raw
material and energy costs to consumers


At its quarterly monetary policy review on January 25, the RBI raised the WPI
inflation forecast for March 2011 to 7.0% YoY from 5.5%, and subsequently
raised this to 8.0% at its most recent meeting. The bank cited the risk of the rising
international price of crude on liberalized gasoline prices, administered coal
prices (an alternative fuel), and prices for non-food processed goods.


The RBI expects agricultural production to be firm this year given an improved
harvest in the rabi season (dry season) from a year earlier. Despite sharp
changes in the IIP, the bank says the domestic economy is continuing to expand
in light of firm data for manufacturing PMI, tax income, and trade statistics. That
said, the RBI highlighted a possibility of weakening appetite for private-sector
investment given higher fuel prices and a slowdown in capital goods output.
The RBI took a bullish stance on the economies of emerging nations and in the
US and EU, but also pointed to increasing uncertainty over the pace of growth
given the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa. The bank did not consider
the consequences of the Tohoku earthquake, but did point to the likelihood of
upward pressure on crude prices given the uncertainty over nuclear power.
We think inflationary pressure will continue to rise in India due to rising
commodity prices and domestic tightening of demand. We therefore expect the
RBI to continue hiking its policy rate in instalments by a total of 75bps through
March 2012 to tamp down inflation. We expect inflation to fall below 6.0% YoY by
March 2012 as the pace of growth in WPI slows due to a tightening of total
demand spurred by an increase in real interest rates.
The rise in the policy rate is likely to lead to a weakening of capex given the
knock-on effect on commercial banks’ lending rates (Figure 3). However, the
government has increased planned infrastructure spending by 23% YoY in its
2011-12 budget, and looks for urban rail, roads, power station and other
infrastructure building to take off through public private partnerships as overseas
investment increases. Consumer spending will likely continue to increase on the
back of purchases of durable goods and we expect both consumer and
infrastructure spending to drive India’s economic growth going forward.


United Phosphorus: MAI confirms positive outlook for 1Q2011E :Kotak Sec

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


United Phosphorus (UNTP)
Others
MAI confirms positive outlook for 1QCY11E. Analysis of Makheteshim (MAI) annual
results confirms trends reported by UPL YTD: (1) ROW markets remain key sales growth
driver in 2010 with tepid growth in EU/NA, (2) Brazil market underperforms reporting
volume/price decline for MAI, (3) selling price declined in CY2010 with most of it seen
in 1HCY10, (4) Europe underperforms for UPL, although up 3% for MAI, and (5) low
inventories, favorable weather, positive trend for price/volume are likely to result in
strong 1QCY11E. We believe turnaround in Europe in 4QFY11E is key to UPL meeting
its FY2011E sales guidance of 5%. Maintain BUY with TP of Rs220.

Mumbai Real Estate- Registrations continue to trend down ::Prabhudas Lilladher

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


 Downward trend in Sales registrations continues
 Sales registrations down 22% YoY, mirroring the trend in January 2011
 Lease volumes continue to trend up, reiterating the stress on affordability
 Sales volumes in the City and Suburbs are off ~45% from their 2010 peak

Banks: Further sell - offs , an opportunity to accumulate…ICICI Securities

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��

Banks: F u r t h e r   s e l l - o f f s ,   a n   o p p o r t u n i t y   t o   a c c umu l a t e…


We are upbeat on the growth story of Indian financials over the longer
term. Keeping aside shorter term jitters over asset quality, rising rates and
tight liquidity, which is factored in correction of stock prices, the longer
term picture provides comfort and opportunities to build the portfolio.
We believe that we have now entered the final round of rate hikes but the
road could be a little long. External shocks of rising crude and commodity
prices pose a threat to longer sustainability of elevated rates. The
expectation of a contraction in NIM due to tight liquidity and falling CASA
share is factored in the price.

PTC India - PFS IPO to strengthen valuations; Buy :Edelweiss

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


PTC India Financial Services (PFS), a 77% subsidiary of PTC India (PTC) involved in
equity and debt financing of power projects, has announced its IPO (16-18 March),
in a price band of INR 26-28/share. We analyse the impact of the IPO on PTC’s
valuations.
􀂃 PFS IPO price band adds 4% to SOTP; implies upside of 6% on CMP
We have thus far been valuing PTC’s stake in PFS at book value (INR
15/share). Post the IPO, based on the price band and after taking a
25% holding company discount, we find PFS’ value in PTC’s books to be
INR 18-20/share.
􀂃 IPO to offload stake and strengthen balance sheet
The IPO is a combination of part stake sale by Macquarie (7% of existing equity)
and further dilution (29% of existing equity) by PFS to raise INR 3.3-3.5 bn to
strengthen its balance sheet. PFS has invested INR 4 bn in equity stakes in 3.2
GW of upcoming capacities, while it has disbursed INR 5.9 bn in loans to 6.8 GW
projects under construction.
􀂃 Recent correction on exaggerated investor concerns
The penalty income booked in December 2010 by PTC triggered investor
concerns about SEBs defaulting on payments to PTC. However, the concerns
appear exaggerated since the penalty received from Bihar was for past dues
(already received in 2009), while the one month delay in payment from Tamil
Nadu SEB was due to administrative roadblocks caused by its trifurcation into
genco, transco, and discom. Although the exposure to SEB finances is a valid
risk for PTC, the risk is much larger for generators and banks. Given the high
stakes we believe remedial measures by the government are in the offing.
􀂃 Outlook & valuations: CMP factors only cash, trading ; maintain ‘BUY’
The current prices factor in only the value of cash on books and core trading
business, leaving out value of tolling projects and investments including PFS. Our
current SOTP of INR 135/share values PFS at book value, culminating in to
INR 15/share. However, taking 25% discount to the IPO price band, our revised
SOTP works out to INR 139-140/share. We reiterate our ‘BUY/Sector
Outperformer’ recommendation/rating on the stock.

Nestle: Parent funds expansion; shortterm dip in asset turns:; Deutsche bank

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Capex commitments imply strong growth prospects
Nestle India's entire capex is to be funded by a drawdown debt facility of
USD450m from Nestle SA. To put this  in perspective, Nestle India's capital
employed is at present ~INR5bn. Demand and gross margins have been navigated
admirably over 2010. Operational cash flow over the past four years has doubled
from INR5.2bn in 2006 to INR10.4bn. The stock remains among our top picks
within the sector with a target price of INR4,200

Policy Review - RBI raises policy rates by 25bps; CRR remains unchanged :Edelweiss

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


RBI raises policy rates by 25bps; CRR remains unchanged
Reserve Bank of India continued with its calibrated approach towards the
normalization of policy rates raising the Repo and Reverse Repo rate by 25bps to
6.75% and 5.75% respectively. It also expressed concerns about the shift in the
drivers of inflation to the non food manufactured products and revised its inflation
target for FY11 to 8% from the earlier target of 7%. The cash reserve ratio (CRR) of
scheduled banks has also been retained at 6.0% of net demand and time liabilities
(NDTL)
Key concerns going ahead
Shift in inflation drivers to be a concern
 Although inflation witnessed a respite in the month of January due to the sharp
correction in food articles prices, an increase non food manufactured products
prices continues to be a concern for the central bank
 For the month of Feb-11 food articles inflation eased to 14.79% YoY compared to
17.28% in Jan-11. However the manufacturing index (accounting for 65% of the
WPI) witnessed a sharp rise of 4.94% in Feb-11 compared to 3.75% in Jan-11
indicating a gradual spill over of the food and commodity prices into more
generalized inflation
 RBI revised its target inflation of 7% for FY11 as per the third quarter review to
8% factoring in the impact of freely priced petroleum products, increase in the
administered coal prices and pick up in the manufacturing product prices
Financing the credit-deposit growth gap
 The direct fall out of the rising inflation and the negative real interest situation
has been the sluggish growth of deposits. Deposit growth floated around the
15.50% level compared to 18% target set by the central bank for FY11
 In order to achieve the target deposit growth of 18% for FY11, banks have to
mobilize another INR2.10trn in the month of March-11 (YTD mobilization at INR
5.97trn). With persistently high inflation, banks are unlikely to achieve the target
set by RBI
 Due to the credit off take outpacing the deposit growth consistently for FY11,
banks have resorted to their excess SLR investment and the short term
borrowing through the CD market to sustain their growth target. Central bank
has already highlighted the concerns of rising Credit-Deposit (CD) ratio and ALM
mismatch at its last policy review in Jan-11
 At the pace credit is growing, banks will have to garner additional deposits of at
least another INR 3.50trn so as to maintain its CD ratio under 75. Given that
SCBs have managed to achieve an average growth of 12% per annum in the
incremental deposits for the last four years, this will put upward pressure on the
interest rates


CAD supported by the robust export growth
 RBI revised the CAD estimate for FY11 to 2.50% of GDP backed by the robust
export performance. India witnessed a robust growth clocking in a cumulative
export of USD 184.6bn for Apr-Jan, 29.30% higher than the same period last
year
 Although the import growth has been relatively stable at USD 273.6bn for Apr-
Jan, 17.60% higher than same period last year, the volatility in the energy prices
could put upside pressure on the oil import bill
 The trade deficit is currently funded by the volatile portfolio flows which tend to
be an unpredictable source for sustainable balance of payment. The central bank
expressed the need to focus on more foreign direct investments to fund the trade
deficit
Interest rates to edge higher; frontloaded borrowing from GoI
 LAF borrowing continued to stay outside the comfort zone of +/- 1% of NDTL
despite an aggressive drawdown of the surplus cash balance. Liquidity is likely to
remain under pressure due to temporary factors like the advance taxes collection
and more continuing factors which include the disinvestment as well as the
~INR110bn – INR 120bn borrowing by GoI every week
 Although the gross borrowing target of INR 4.17trn is lower than expected, the
net borrowing at INR 3.43trn due to the lower redemption this year. Typically
GoI front loads 60%-65% of the total borrowing in the first two quarters which
leads to a drain of about INR 90bn – INR 110bn in the first 23 weeks of FY12.
Besides these weekly auctions, GoI has planned disinvestment of about INR
250bn in the H1FY12 which will drain the system liquidity further
 With short terms already reining under the tight liquidity pressure (three month
CD rates at 10%) rates may rise further once the borrowing from GoI beginning
in FY12
 Long term interest rates, although comforted by the fiscal consolidation pointed
out in the budget, are likely to witness pressure on the upside since commitment
to contain the subsidies are farfetched. In the Union Budget, GoI declared a
target deficit of 4.60%; however the subsidy bill seems to grossly understate the
subsidies at INR 1.43trn. With continuing uncertainty about the energy and
commodity prices the fiscal deficit target has a high risk of surprising on the
upside in the second half of FY12, leading to a sharp rise in the long term yields



Reliance Industries- Gas output to decline? -JP Morgan

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


• RIL indicates potential reduction in supply:  RIL has reportedly
(CNBC) responded to the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH)
on the issue of gas output from the KG-D6 field, saying that unless
changes are implemented in the block, output is likely to decline further.
We estimate a ~11.5% cut in EPS with lower output, all else remaining
equal.
• Output could drop to ~47mmscmd: In the absence of further
development inputs, output from the D1-D3 areas of the block could
drop to ~38mmscmd (from ~44 currently). Output from the MA area is
~9mmscmd.
• Additional inputs may help: RIL said the above estimates do not factor
in potential success from ongoing workover and additional physical
inputs to existing wells – which could help boost output from these
wells.
• Negative for sentiment and near term earnings…: Newsflow on the
E&P business will continue to influence stock performance. With a drop
in output (as opposed to a rise we factor), FY12 EPS could be ~11.5%
lower.
• …but should not impact value for the E&P business: BP’s entry into
the block (among others) provides a floor valuation to this business, in
our view. With large experience, and greater access to details of the
block, BP is well placed to judge the potential of KG-D6 – and would
seek to generate value for its stakeholders for the price it paid for the
assets.
• Buying opportunity: The refining business remains strong, and PX
spreads have spiked due to the supply disruption and FM from major
Japanese producers. We estimate that a sustained rise in PX spreads (up
$220/MT w/w and likely to sustain at higher levels) could significantly
mitigate the loss of earnings from lower gas output. We re-iterate our
Overweight rating on the stock.

Buy Tata Consultancy: Investor call takeaways: BNP Paribas

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Investor call takeaways
ƒ Takeaways from investor call with infrastructure services head
ƒ Strong opportunity; segment growth to outpace company growth
ƒ Segment margin similar to company average, can improve further
ƒ BUY: Likely seasonal weakness in 4Q, but FY12 shaping up well

RBI hikes policy rates by 25bps; inflatio n target revised to 8% for March-11: :Edelweiss

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


RBI hikes policy rates by 25bps; inflation target revised to 8% for March-11
Government securities
 RBI continued with its calibrated approach towards the normalization of policy
rates raising the Repo and Reverse Repo rate by 25bps to 6.75% and 5.75%
respectively. It also expressed concerns about the shift in the drivers of inflation to
the non food manufactured products and revised its inflation target for FY11 to 8%
from the earlier target of 7%. The cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks has
also been retained at 6.0% of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL). Yields
remained largely range bound since the policy rate hike was in line with
expectation however there was an upward pressure due to a second revision in the
inflation target for March-11.
 Swap rates rose across maturities as revision in the inflation raised possibility of
another rate hike by RBI (at its next review) to maintain its anti inflationary
stance. The one year swap closed 5bps higher at 7.42% while the five year swap
ended at 7.92%, 4bps higher than previous close.
Non-SLR market
 Rates on the short term money market instruments declined 5-8bps despite
increase in the policy rates. Three month CDs were dealt at 9.70%-9.75% while
one year CDs were dealt at 9.90%-9.95%. State Bank of India placed INR 10bn of
24th Jun maturity CD at 9.70% while Andhra Bank placed INR 9bn of similar
maturity CD between 9.75%-9.83%. Vijaya Bank placed INR 6.35bn of one year
CD at 10% and OBC placed INR 1.50bn of one year CD at 9.96%.
Money markets
 Banks borrowed INR 1.45trn at the first LAF prior to the policy in anticipation of an
increase the repo rate. At the second LAF the borrowing was only INR 6.30bn.
Banks have maintained a more aggressively skewed borrowing at the LAF window
in this fortnight with the excess CRR touching 9% above the requirement on 14th
March (INR 290bn in absolute terms).

Nestle India :Timely expansions provide comfort -Macquarie Research

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Nestle India
Timely expansions provide comfort
Event
 We interacted with the senior management of Nestlé India (NEST IN, Not rated)
at the analyst meeting held in Delhi on 17 March. Nestlé’s management is
confident of strong volume growth and has guided for the maintenance of its
operating margin band (17–18%) despite raw material cost pressure. Nestlé’s
capacity expansion plan is on track and provides a strong growth outlook.
Impact
 Aims to double sales and profit in next 3-4 years. Management is
confident about doubling its sales and profit in the next 3-4 years on strong
demand growth in premium and popular products and with a focus on new
launches and distribution reach. For CY10, Nestlé reported 22.9% YoY
domestic sales growth, aided by sales growth in prepared dishes and cooking
aids (↑29.2%), chocolate and confectionary (↑25.7%), and milk products and
nutrition (↑20.1%). Domestic volume grew by 17.6% YoY.
 Despite challenging cost environment, margin improved. During CY10,
Nestlé reported operating profit margin of 18.2% (↑30bp), despite raw material
cost pressure. Although it is cautious on costs, management is confident of
maintaining its operating margin band (17-18%), even with cost pressure in
key commodities such as coffee, palm oil and milk, through a better product
mix, calibrated price hikes and operating leverage.
 Focus on new launches and distribution. New launches are planned in
popularly priced point, nutritional, out of home and premium categories. Also,
Nestlé enhanced its distribution reach by adding 464,000 new points of sales
in CY10, and it aims to expand its reach further in tier II, III and IV cities.
Strong demand for premium products in smaller cities has strengthened its
distribution expansion strategy, despite high food inflation.
 Expansion plan on track and geared to meet demand growth. Nestlé’s
expansion plans are progressing well, and it has received US$450m debt funding
from its parent for its expansion. It expects to complete the Nanjangud (noodles,
trial run), Bicholim (pasta, first line started) and Ponda (chocolate) expansions in
CY11, and its Samalkha (nutritional) and Tahliwal (chocolate and noodles)
expansions in CY12. In addition, it expects debottlenecking and operational
efficiency at existing facilities to help meet near-term demand growth.
 New excise duty can affect operating margin by 50bp. According to
Nestlé’s management, a 1% excise duty levied in Union Budget will affect its
EBIT margin by 50bp in the absence of any action. However, the company
can pass through the recent excise duty hike to its customers due to its
pricing power.
Outlook
 Nestlé is present in very high-growth categories, where penetration levels are
very low and competition is modest. Nestlé has consistently delivered ROEs
and ROICs of over ~100% and 60%, respectively.
 Nestlé is trading at 35x CY11E and 29x CY12E PER, based on Bloomberg
consensus estimates.

Buy MIRZA INTERNATIONAL LTD.- RED TAPE:: Microsec Research

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


We re-affirm Mirza International a BUY. We have earlier recommended at CMP of INR17
with a Target price of INR26 which had been achieved. However due to correction in the
stock price from INR28 to INR19, there exist an opportunity to enter into the stock. Mirza
International Limited has emerged as a frontrunner in the manufacturing and marketing of
leather and leather footwear. None the less, it has also bettered upon the projections set by
us in our earlier report. Its brand ‘RED TAPE’ has a strong footing in the footwear market.

MotoGaze–March,2011; Demand remains robust; was it excise or structural? ICICI Securities

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Demand remains robust; was it excise or structural?
Demand momentum continues to positively surprise…
February has seen volume growth maintenance. This could partially be
attributed to structural demand and primarily to sales in anticipation of
excise hike. The growth has been robust at 22.1% YoY and ~4.3% MoM
(on a higher base) at ~1.52 million units reaching 1.58 million units. The
growth in sales in CY11 despite across the board price hikes in the
automobile sector could be an early indicator of pricing power in the
industry and growing income strength. However, this would only be
confirmed post the sales in March 2011 when externalities for sales like
pre-Budget buying would cease to exist. The volume growth of the
industry has been ~27.4% with the passenger car (PV) segment growing
24.1%, commercial vehicle (CV) segment growing the fastest at 32.1%
and the largest segment, two-wheelers growing at 27.7% on a YTD basis.
The demand scene would be a key deliverable for the industry. It has
been provided uplift with status quo being maintained in excise structure.
However, an increase in input prices would be a big deterrent.
Status quo on excise duty big boost sentimentally…
Against market expectations, the Union Budget proved to be positive for
the automotive sector as it maintained the status quo on the excise duty
structure and provided sops for the green initiative “electric vehicles”. The
unchanged excise structure would provide headroom for OEMs to arrest a
declining margin trend amid higher input prices and also not dampen the
structural demand scene prevalent in the domestic market.
Commodity rise main concern, Japanese disaster provides short term relief
Commodity prices, led by steel, aluminium and plastics prices, have
increased ~5-15% YoY. The price of natural rubber has seen the steepest
hike and kept on rising in this fiscal touching a peak of  |  235 (~58%
higher YoY). This steep rise has somewhat corrected due to the recent
untoward developments in Japan. This has caused prices to crash to ~|
185 level. This decline in commodities due to the Japanese tsunami is a
temporary phenomenon spiralling to probable demand decline
anticipations in the short-term. However, we believe that overall this
calamity would be a negative for global commodity prices and demand
due to reconstruction would be immense.
Industry Outlook
The outlook towards volume growth of the sector is positive. We expect
CAGR of volume growth to range between 18% and 20% in FY10-12E. On
the index performance basis, the BSE Auto index has outperformed the
BSE  Sensex  with  YoY  return  of  14.6%  as  compared  to  6%  during  the
same period. The demand side has remained robust in CY11 and is an
early signal for our belief towards the structural nature of automotive
demand similar to what was witnessed in China post CY03. The
confirmation of the same would arrive post March 2011, which would be
free from any externalities pushing demand higher. The major spoilers for
the sector remain steep commodity hikes and unfavourable currency
volatility that could cause a serious concern to the whole industry as
profitability could see an erosion. Among our I-direct auto coverage, we
remain bullish on frontline OEM stocks like Tata Motors and Maruti
Suzuki. Among our ancillary coverage stocks, we find favourable valuation
and business growth perspectives in Bharat Forge and Exide Industries.

Economy: RBI Credit Policy: Inflation rules the roost :Kotak Sec

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Economy
Monetary Policy
RBI Credit Policy: Inflation rules the roost. The RBI during today’s mid-quarter
meeting decided to raise repo and reverse repo rates by 25 bps each citing reasons of
demand-side pressures in the economy. The policy maintains its anti-inflationary bias as
inflation has continued to surprise on the upside. In a bid to control expectations, the
RBI stressed the necessity to maintain a calibrated approach to the rate hike cycle.
CRR and SLR rates were kept unchanged at 6% and 24%, respectively.

VoltampTransformers, : management meeting key highlights: Kotak Sec

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


VOLTAMP TRANSFORMERS LTD
PRICE: RS.551 RECOMMENDATION: BUY
TARGET  PRICE:  RS.712
FY12E P/E: 10X
q Pricing continues to remain under pressure in the transformer market.
EBITDA margins sharply lower in 9M FY11. Management indicated that
further downside in margins cannot be ruled out in view of firm commodity prices and no let-up in competition intensity.
q Capital engagement has increased and the company is cautious on order
intake.
q However, contrary to ongoing pain in the industry, taking note of the
price correction, we maintain BUY. We have made downward revision to
earnings in FY11 and FY12. Consequently, we arrive at a DCF based price
target Rs.712 (Rs.893 earlier), thus valuing the stock at 12.9x FY12 earnings. Company remains debt-free and estimated cash surplus of Rs 130
per share.

Kotak Securities - News Update: March 19, 2011

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Economy News
4 Reserve Bank of India  increased key policy rates by a quarter point – the
eighth increase in a year – warning that rising oil prices will put more
pressure on the already high inflation. The repo rate – RBI’s short-term
lending rate – has gone up from 6.5 per cent to 6.75 per cent with
immediate effect. The reverse repo rate – its short-term borrowing rate
– has risen from 5.5 per cent to 5.75 per cent. (BS)
4 An agreement for ensuring supply of additional gas to the power projects
in Andhra Pradesh was signed today in New Delhi. The agreement was
signed between GAIL, RIL, RGTIL and power plants in Andhra Pradesh.
This would enable additional power production of almost 600 MW in
Andhra Pradesh (12 million units per day), which is critical for the State in
summer months. (PIB)
4 The finance ministry has given a gift to the 47.2 million Employees
Provident Fund (EPF) subscribers. The ministry on Thursday cleared the
proposal for paying 9.5 per cent interest on EPF deposits for 2010-11. (BS)
4 Property sales registrations in Mumbai fell on an annual basis, for the
seventh month in succession, as realty prices remained high in the
country’s commercial capital. Mumbai saw registration of 4,716 sale deed
agreements in February 2011, down 22 per cent compared to the same
month in 2010 and seven per cent lower than those registered in January
2010. (BS)
4 The Reserve Bank of India today allowed non-banking finance companies
(NBFC) to classify credit extended to 'telecom tower' companies as
infrastructure loans. (BS)

RBI Action : Monetary Policy Update (March 2011) ICICI Securities

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��

Monetary Policy Update (March 2011)


W H A T ’ S   C H A N G E D …
CRR, Bank rate....................................................................................Unchanged at 6%
Repo rate................................................................................ Hiked by 25 bps to 6.75%
Reverse Repo rate.................................................................. Hiked by 25 bps to 5.75%