18 February 2011

Construction sector -REVIEW: POST Q3FY11 :: Kotak Securities

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CONSTRUCTION SECTOR REVIEW: POST Q3FY11
Construction sector companies have posted mixed set of numbers for
Q3FY11 with revenues falling largely inline with our estimates with stable
to improved operating margins but net profit growth fell short of
expectation due to higher interest outgo. Order inflow continued to remain
a key concern for the sector as a whole. Inflow was impacted due to change
in key ministries at the state as well as centre level coupled with
environmental issues. Hardening of interest rates as well as liquidity
constraints increased interest outgo for the companies during Q3FY11
owing to working capital intensive nature of the sector. Thus, post Q3FY11
results, we revised our estimates for order inflow for the companies as well
as incorporate higher interest rates going ahead. Sector had also witnessed
de-rating of valuation multiples primarily on account of concerns related to
order inflow, environmental issues as well as higher interest rates.
Post factoring in these concerns, we believe that current order books
continue to provide visibility for next 1.5-2 years and valuations of stocks
have also come down to very attractive levels. We thus continue to remain
positive on the sector and expect inflow momentum to ramp up
significantly from FY12 onwards. Our top picks would be IRB Infra, IVRCL,
Pratibha Industries, Unity Infraprojects and BGR Energy.

Macquarie Research:: Mn ore market outlook remains good

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Commodities Comment
Mn ore market outlook remains good
Feature article
 We review the market outlook for manganese ore following our recent visit to
South Africa, which is the world’s leading producer and hosts the largest and
highest grade reserves. While prices will be under pressure in the short term
after BHP Billiton’s aggressive pricing announcement this week, we remain
positive on market prospects going forward and continue to anticipate that the
market for medium- and high-grade manganese ore will become increasingly
tight over the first half of this decade, underpinning prices.

Budget 2011-12 Preview Tightrope walking :: Emkay

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Budget 2011-12 Preview
Tightrope walking


n        Further stimulus rollback likely
      Rollback of excise duty likely in select sectors
      The pre-crisis excise duty at 14% was cut to 8% after the fiscal stimulus, and currently stand at 10%. With strong growth in sectors like small cars and low inflation in man-made fibers, the rate may be raised to 12%. In large cars and UV also the excise duty may be raised
      Likely rollback of service tax and including more services
      The service rates was spared in last budget and looking at the strong growth in services coupled with 16% GST rates in future, service tax may be increased to 12%. This would also not impact the inflation as much as the excise duty increase. There may be inclusion of more services under service tax
      Customs duty on petroleum products may be reduced
      With steep inflationary pressures building up in fuel items and rising subsidy bill, the customs duty on crude oil/petrochemicals/fuel products may be reduced/waived. The current duty rates are: crude oil – 5%, auto fuel – 7.5% and other petrochemicals – 10%
n        Fiscal deficit to be under pressure
      No bonanza revenues next year
      The unexpected 3G bonanza of ~Rs.720bn had acted as a buffer to absorb a good part of the fiscal deficit in FY11. Come FY12, such unexpected deficit support is not foreseen. Fiscal deficit for FY12  is likely to spill over the target.
      Subsidies to see an increase
      We expect the total subsidy bills on food/fertilisers/fuels to go up by ~Rs800bn from the budgeted estimates. The petroleum subsidy would see a drastic uptick if the price of crude were to increase through FY12. This would undermine the ability of the government to tame the fiscal deficit and consequently inflation.
Price dependent subsidy burden
Rs. Bn
% of GDP
Oil price at $80
361
0.51
Oil price at $90
438
0.62
Oil Price at $100
511
0.73

      Augmentation of revenues to be key thing
      In such scenario, key thing to focus will be augmenting the revenues which may include
§                                                                                                             Raising excise duty/customs duty  rates in few products
§                                                                                                             Raising service tax rate
§                                                                                                             Introduction of voluntary disclosure of income scheme

India Market Recap- Fri, Feb 18, 2011

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 INDICES: Sensex 18,211(-295), Nifty 5,558(-87), CNXMCAP 7,699(-132).
* VOLUMES: NSE $3.12bn(14,147), BSE $0.81bn(3,708cr), F&O $42.22bn(1,91,054cr)
* AVERAGE 10 DAYS MKT VOL: NSE $2.88bn (13,042) BSE $0.75bn (3,425)
                          F&O $29.88bn(1,35,186).
* SECTORS: REALTY -4.03%  METAL -1.26%   BANKEX -1.55%   POWER  -1.34%
           AUTO -2.42%  CAP.GOODS -1.83% PHARMA -0.72%  IT -0.76%.
* ADV-DEC RATIO : BSE500 Index 76 Advances & 421 Declines.
* INDEX GAINERS : HLL +2%, J.STEEL +1%, CIPLA & BHEL +0.50%,
* INDEX LOSERS  : RCOM -7%, RELINFRA & JPA -6%, T.MOTORS -4%, ONGC, LT, I.BANK,
                  & M&M -3%, T.STEEL & H.HONDA -2%.

* TOP 5 VOLUMES : SBI, I.BANK, H.BANK, T.STEEL & LIC HOUSING.

* MAJOR BLOCKS  : 1) STANDARD CHA-IDR     14,00,000 @  114.50,
                  2) KEC INTL              8,00,000 @   87.00,
                  3) NTPC                 10,00,000 @  181.00,
                  4) ASIAN PAINTS          2,00,000 @ 2600.00,

* BSE500 GAINERS: H.COPPER +12%, STC +9%, ADHUNIC METALIKS +6%, MAHARASHTRA BNK,
                  & INFO EDGE +5%, KIRI DYES & CHEM, CITY UNION & KGN IND +4%,
                  PRESTIGE ESTATES & MANAPPURAM GEN +3%.

* BSE500 LOSERS : ANANT RAJ IND -20%, DCHL -10%, JAIN IRRIGATION, THOMAS COOK,
                  REL MEDIA & MADHUCON PROJ -8%, MERCATOR LINES, REL CAP,
                  UNITECH & ASSAM CO -7%.

* FII INVESTMENT FROM 1st JAN 2011 to 16th Feb 2011: $-1.66bn.

Buy Daimond Power; target Rs319:: Kotak Securities

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DIAMOND POWER INFRASTRUCTURE LTD
RECOMMENDATION: BUY
TARGET PRICE: RS.319
FY12E P/E: 4.5X
q Numbers are ahead of expectations on the revenue as well as profit
front. Revenue growth has been mainly driven by the Conductors and
Cables segment. The cables business has grown on account of commissioning
of HT cables facility in Q4 FY10. Lower tax outgo also contributed
to the variance between our estimates and actual numbers.
q The company has recently commissioned its transmission towers plant
and expects to complete its EHV cables plant in current fiscal. The company
has been qualified for bidding for PGCIL orders recently.
q The stock is trading at very attractive valuations. We maintain BUY with
a target price of Rs319.

PRE BUDGET NOTE - FEBRUARY 2011 :: Kotak Securities

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PRE BUDGET NOTE - FEBRUARY 2011
A tight rope walk; implementation to be in focus
The Finance Minister will present the FY2011-12 budget at a time when
inflation is at high levels and is raising concerns on future growth rates. The
FM's priority will be inflation control and sustaining growth rates, we
believe, though fiscal rectitude will also invite his attention. The focus was
more on fiscal prudence last year. We believe that, significant stress will be
laid on more effective implementation of the outlays rather than any
increasing outlays significantly.

Macquarie Research, :: Weekly US oil data -Constructive US s/d numbers

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Weekly US oil data
Constructive US s/d numbers
Following several batches of seasonally weak US crude oil data, this week finally
turns a bit more constructive. Demand growth rebounded following nearly a month at
suppressed levels. And these mildly supportive fundamentals come as crude is
already pushing to new highs (Brent oil futures have moved above US$104/b) on
concerns over further geopolitical instability.

Kotak Sec: Industrials- Order inflows and thus earning disappointments likely vs guidance/estimates.

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Industrials
India
Order inflows and thus earning disappointments likely vs guidance/estimates.
Highlight potential for disappointments in 4QFY11E order inflows vs implied asking rate
on guidance and/or full-year estimates. Downgrade L&T to REDUCE with earnings cut
(5%, 11% for FY12E, FY13E) on the back of likely lower inflows (FY12E) along with risk
to margin (commodity price, mix), execution (longer gestation book), RoCE dilution and
higher risk on increasing infrastructure investments. Reiterate BUY on CRG, Thermax.


Stock calls—top picks remain Crompton and Thermax

  • Crompton: BUY (TP: Rs310) on diversified business and overseas business recovery
  • Thermax: BUY (TP: Rs760) on expansion of business opportunity; but wary of capex cycle related risks
  • BHEL: REDUCE (TP: Rs2,400) on sedate inflows leading to lower visibility in mid term
  • Voltas: REDUCE (TP: Rs200) on sedate inflows and potential margin risks
  •  BGR: REDUCE (TP: Rs600) on earnings risks, potential disappointment on near-term opportunities
  • ABB (TP: Rs725, REDUCE)/Siemens (TP: Rs735, REDUCE)

INDIA DAILY- Kotak Sec, February 18, 2011

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Economy News
4 Food inflation eased to a nine week low in the first week of February as
prices of vegetables came down sharply from the previous week. It stood
at 11.05% for the week ended February 5 down from 13.1% a week
earlier (ET)
4 Exporters can start availing sops worth Rs 5 bn that were announced by
the government last week under the Market Linked Focus Product
Scheme (MLFPS) and Focus Product Scheme (FPS) (ET).

Q3FY11 Result Review - dodge ball: Top line healthy ::Edelweiss

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Q3FY11 Result Review - dodge ball: Top line healthy but margin headwinds gather momentum


n  Rising cost pressures dent earnings growth
Q3FY11 earnings for our coverage universe (ex OMCs) came in at 23.1% against our expectation of 20.4%. However, a large part of the positive surprise was contributed by higher–than-expected earnings of ONGC (actual INR 71 bn versus expectation of INR 45 bn). Ex ONGC and OMCs, earnings growth stands at 16.8%, which is below our estimate. The biggest positive surprise came in oil & gas, IT, BFSI, retail, and media, while metals, telecom, and power surprised on the downside. For most stocks where earnings came in below our estimate, rising cost pressure was a determining factor. In our view, this phenomenon will intensify further in the coming quarters, thereby pressurising earnings.

Goldman Sachs :: Aurobindo: Add to Conviction-Buy; TP to Rs313 (33% upside)

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Aurobindo (ARBN.BO): Add to C-Buy; TP to Rs313 (33% upside)
Quality and momentum of transformation undervalued:
We add Aurobindo to our Conviction Buy List with a new 12-month TPof
Rs313, yielding potential upside of 33%. We believe that Aurobindo is
transitioning rapidly from a low-margin API player to a formulations
company with improving quality of revenues. It offers exposure, at
attractive valuations, to the increasing demand for global pharma to tie
up with low-cost Indian drug manufacturers. We now forecast sales
CAGR of 19% over FY10-FY13E and raise our EPS estimates by 3%-
39% over FY11E-FY13E to reflect our improved business outlook.

Goldman Sachs:: DRL (Dr Reddy): 20+ one-off opportunities drive revenue growth

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DRL (REDY.BO): 20+ one-off opportunities drive revenue growth
Source of opportunity
 We raise our 12-month target price for Dr Reddy’s Laboratories
(DRL) to Rs 1,507 (from Rs 1,363) yielding potential upside of 1% on
the back of our raised earnings forecast. We believe that DRL is
poised for strong 23% revenue CAGR and 320 bps margin
expansion over FY11E-FY13E driven by multiple upcoming exclusive
and limited-competition launches in the US market. We maintain
our Neutral rating on valuation as we see limited upside from
current levels.

Goldman Sachs:: Cipla : Conviction Sell List; domestic growth to lag peers

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Cipla (CIPL.BO): Add to C-List; domestic growth to lag peers
Source of opportunity
We add Cipla to the Conviction Sell List with a lowered DC-based 12-month
TP of Rs253 (from Rs276) as we lower our revenue forecast owing to
domestic business performance, implying potential downside of 19%.
Underperformance of last 3 yrs to likely to continue: While Cipla has
outperformed the broader markets over the last 3 months (down 11% vs.
BSE Sensex down 16%) mainly due to media reports suggesting its stake
sale, we expect the stock to underperform its peers going ahead, as it has
done for each of the last ten years, owing to its lower growth prospects.
We believe Cipla’s revenue growth will continue to lag its peers as
its domestic leadership is under threat with rising competition and its
export growth continues to be muted due to product launch delays. We
cut our revenue and earnings estimates by 5%-6% and 7%-15% over
FY11E-FY13E to reflect our lower growth and margin expectations.

Goldman Sachs:: Ranbaxy: Best pipeline, Year of Lipitor; UG to Neutral

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Ranbaxy (RANB.BO): Best pipeline, Year of Lipitor; UG to Neutral
What happened
We upgrade Ranbaxy to Neutral from Sell with a revised 12-month target
price of Rs556 as we believe that Ranbaxy is well positioned to exploit the
upcoming wave of patent expiry in the US given its best-in-class generic
pipeline and potential resolution of the FDA/DoJ manufacturing issue that
has been a headwind since 2008. Our confidence in Ranbaxy’s ability to
monetize its multiple FTF opportunities has been boosted by the recent
launch of Aricept. Since we downgraded it to Sell on July 18, 2008,
Ranbaxy is up 17.7% vs. the Sensex up at 33.5% and has
underperformed its Indian pharma peers under our coverage by 83%.

Goldman Sachs:: Lupin : Steady fundamentals; reiterate Buy; raise TP

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Lupin (LUPN.BO): Steady fundamentals; reiterate Buy; raise TP
Source of opportunity
 We reiterate our Buy rating on Lupin with a revised 12-month target
price of Rs463, implying 13% potential upside. We maintain our
thesis that Lupin is one the best positioned Indian pharma
companies on a long-term horizon due to its leading presence in the
key generics markets of US and Japan.

Goldman Sachs,:: Sun : Sell as cash returns continue to decline

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Sun (SUN.BO): Retain Sell as cash returns continue to decline
Source of opportunity
 We retain our Sell rating on Sun as we believe that the current
valuation is rich and outweighs its growth prospects. We revise our
12-month target price to Rs308 (from Rs307) as we raise our EPS
estimates by 3%-10% for FY11E-FY13E.
 We see limited publicly known product opportunities for Sun in
2011-2012 with launches restricted mainly to focus areas of
oncology and CNS. Our ANDA pipeline analysis yields a revenue
potential of US$288mn for Sun over 2011-2014 from major
product launches. We forecast sales and earnings CAGR of 19% and
13%, respectively, over FY2011E-FY2013E.

Goldman Sachs, :: Jubilant Life Sciences: Incorporate demerger; value pick

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Jubilant Life Sciences (JULS.BO): Incorporate demerger; value pick
Source of opportunity
We reiterate our Buy rating on Jubilant Life with a revised 12-month
target price of Rs 248, implying 22% potential upside. We incorporate
the demerger of the agri and industrial polymers (APP) business and
recent quarterly trends and revise our revenue and earnings estimates
down by 17%-18% and 29%-39%, respectively over FY11E-FY13E. We
forecast revenue CAGR of 13% for Jubilant over FY11E-FY13E on the
back of the anticipated revival in the CRAMS (Contract Research and
Manufacturing Services) industry and capacity expansion in the core
areas of pyridines and injectables. We maintain our Buy rating as
Jubilant as the largest CRAMS company in India, offers exposure, at
historically low valuation, to the secular growth of increased outsourcing
of pharma R&D and manufacturing.

Goldman Sachs:: Glenmark: Limited growth; lack of NT pipeline catalysts

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Glenmark (GLEN.BO): Limited growth; lack of NT pipeline catalysts
Source of opportunity
 We raise our 12-month TP for Glenmark to Rs320 (from Rs296) on
the back of improving generics outlook in the US. We however,
eliminate our forecasts for milestone income for the stock, and
hence our net income forecasts are lowered. We remain Neutral
rated on the stock.

Goldman Sachs:: Cadila: Neutral on balanced risk reward; steady outlook

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Cadila (CADI.BO): Neutral on balanced risk reward; steady outlook
What’s changed
 We raise our FY11E-FY13E net income estimates for Cadila by up to
11% on the back of improved growth expectations from the US
formulations business, joint venture with Hospira and margin
expansion.

Goldman Sachs :: Biocon: Neutral as Axicorp set to be LT drag; reduce TP

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Biocon (BION.BO): Neutral as Axicorp set to be LT drag; reduce TP
What’s changed
We reduce our FY11E-FY13E earnings estimates for Biocon by 15%-41%
on the back of 3QFY11 results and greater clarity on revenue recognition
and R&D expenditure from the Pfizer deal. As a result, we reduce our 12-
month TP to Rs 318 (from Rs392), implying 2% potential downside. We
remain Neutral on Biocon despite the recent correction (down 26% in
CY2011) as we believe the stock is fairly valued at current levels.

Goldman Sachs -Piramal : 2011 to be year of transition; Neutral

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Piramal (PIRA.BO): 2011 to be year of transition; remain Neutral
What’s changed
We maintain our Neutral rating on Piramal as the company charts its
future strategy and growth course. In our view, a large component of the
company’s value is currently cash and a smaller component the residual
businesses of CRAMS, Global Critical Care and OTC. We maintain our
12-month TP of Rs480, implying 14% potential upside.

Goldman Sachs:: Pharmaceuticals :: Deep dive into patent cliff - US$3bn opportunity for Top 6 cos

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India: Healthcare: Pharmaceuticals
Equity Research
Deep dive into patent cliff - US$3bn opportunity for Top 6 cos
Indian pharma sector’s outperformance to continue in 2011
We expect Indian pharma to continue its outperformance for the fourth
consecutive year in 2011 owing to accelerating revenue growth and
expanding margins. While the sector has seen multiples expand in 2010,
we prefer companies with ability to surprise on the upside. The key driver
for this view is the 50+ potential product launch opportunities arising from
the impending patent cliff of global pharma (US$ 88bn of sales in
blockbuster drugs going off-patent over 2011-14). In this report, we analyze
these opportunities in detail, and forecast 18%/29% sales/EPS CAGR for the
sector over FY2010-FY13E. We reiterate Buy on Lupin, upgrade Ranbaxy to
Neutral, add Aurobindo to C-Buy and Cipla to C-Sell.

Accenture (ACN):: Well positioned :: CLSA

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Accenture:: Well positioned
Accenture has strengthened its business in the past five years, cutting
delivery costs and reducing exposure to the US market and financial
services. Meanwhile, the firm continues to build on its leading position in
consulting and systems integration. At 16.2xAug’11 earnings, we find
Accenture compellingly priced, especially amid a strong demand
environment for IT Services. We see five key drivers of a positive
investment thesis in Accenture over the next 2 years.

Unconventional Wisdom- Energising the US recovery:: Macquarie Research

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Unconventional Wisdom
Energising the US recovery
Event
 Despite bitterly cold weather in the US, natural gas prices have remained very
low.

CLSA:: India Budget: Time to shape up

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India Budget: Time to shape up
Indian federal budgets are like pregnancies – the uncertainty in the run-up
to the delivery typically has little to do with the eventual outcome. The
forthcoming Budget 2011-12 takes place at a time when there are low
expectations from the government, which has been mired in a series of
corruption scandals, governance issues, mismanagement on food inflation,
and a general disappointing delivery on reforms. With economic growth
having rebounded, the government cannot use the same liberal spending
script of the last two budgets. Indeed, the most important message from the
upcoming budget should be that of fiscal consolidation, which is vital for
near-term inflation management and for medium-term fiscal sustainability.

CLSA:: India Markets:: It’s not the ETFs, again…

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It’s not the ETFs, again…
With macro concerns (inflation, infra slowdown etc) stepping up, FII
outflows have started from India. The total FII AUM in India at an all time
high of US$237bn as at Dec-10 doesn’t help. EM to DM trade is evident in
the ETF flow analysis with c.90% of all ETF inflows into US-based ETFs
going to US equities since the last two months (vis-à-vis only 32% in
CY10). In India, ETFs have accounted for only 6% of YTD FII outflows.
However, steep outflows by one ADR focussed fund ETF (EEM US) has
resulted in contraction of ADR/GDR premiums and the trend may
continue if the fund continues to see outflows.

Credit Suisse:: Avoid Hexaware - Strong business momentum priced in

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Hexaware ------------------------------------------------------------------- Maintain UNDERPERFORM
Strong business momentum priced in



● Hexaware reported strong Dec-10 revenue growth of 9% QoQ in
US$ terms, ahead of CS estimate of 8.1%. Its EBIT margin
improved 290 bp QoQ (vs CS estimate of a 90 bp increase). Thus,
PAT came in 16% ahead of estimate.
● Management was positive on the growth outlook and guided for
2011 sales of US$290 mn, 25% YoY growth. We believe that
strong growth is driven largely by a resurgence in the Peoplesoft
business.
● The company has guided for EBIT margin of over 10% in 2011. It
expects margin improvement to be driven by: 1) more offshoring,
2) higher utilisation, 3) pyramidisation and 4) pricing improvement.
● While growth is not in doubt, margin performance could be the key
to its share price performance in 2011. Despite a YoY
improvement, margin guidance falls short of our estimate and the
last five years’ average. We believe that this could keep its share
price under pressure.
● Post results, we increase our FY11 revenue estimate but lower
our margin numbers, leading to a 7% decline in our 2011E EPS.
We increase our target price to Rs100 (10x 2011E P/E) and
maintain our UNDERPERFORM rating.

FII & DII trading activity on NSE and BSE as on 18-Feb-2011

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FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment
The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 18-Feb-2011.
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII18-Feb-20112844.582636.91207.67
 
Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment
The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance, MFs and New Pension System on 18-Feb-2011.
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII18-Feb-20111266.671455.81-189.14

--

Credit Suisse:: Simplex -3Q11 disappoints mainly on account of decline in international revenues

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Simplex --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Maintain NEUTRAL
3Q11 disappoints mainly on account of decline in international revenues


● Simplex’s 3Q FY11 recurring PAT at Rs232 mn was flat YoY and
31% below our estimates. Key reason for the disappointment was
lower-than-expected revenue from its international business that
constitutes 12% of sales and declined 46% YoY.
● Lower-than-expected sales hit operating margins led by operating
leverage which, combined with a high interest expense on
account of rising interest rates and a high working capital cycle (at
114 days versus 95 days at Mar 2010), led to muted profits.
● Simplex cut its sales guidance for FY11 to 10% growth compared
to 15% earlier. However, it guided for recovery in international
business from 4Q FY11 onwards and expects its FY12 sales
growth at 20-25%. We are at the lower end of this guidance.
Management guided for operating margins to be in the range of
10-10.5% versus our estimate of 9.8%.
● We cut our EPS by 17-23% over FY11-13E, led by weak 3Q
results, high working capital cycle and borrowing costs and
slower-than-expected execution at international orders. We cut
our target price to Rs376 and maintain our NEUTRAL rating.

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 18-Feb-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 18-Feb-2011 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES1474184089.711359763765.6863393617298.96324.03
INDEX OPTIONS37341210245.383501889627.40220892060292.30617.98
STOCK FUTURES1843384702.611717044355.42123149330349.78347.18
STOCK OPTIONS21331589.8722515618.7828726762.99-28.92
      Total1260.27