Media - 3QFY2011 ICICI Securities: Result Preview

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Media


ƒ Sequentially higher ad revenue growth on back of festive season
Media companies across the board are expected to post robust ad
revenue growth with the festive season shifting to Q3FY11. Our
media universe would grow 18.5% YoY and 7.1% QoQ. Regional
players would register higher ad revenue growth compared to
national peers. Print companies are expected to post 11-29% YoY
ad growth with Jagran Prakashan (up 29%), DB Corp (21%) and HT
Media (28%) while Deccan Chronicle  is expected to post 11% YoY
growth. ENIL is also expected to see 15% YoY ad revenue growth
backed by higher utilisation rate. The consolidated topline would
decline as OOH revenue would be included only for two months.
ƒ Occupancy, footfalls fail to step up in seasonally good quarter
Multiplexes would register lower occupancy in a seasonally good
quarter due to lack of quality content in Q3FY11. Big budget movies
like No Problem, Tees Maar Khan and Khelein Hum Jee Jaan Sey
(KHJJS) failed to perform at the box office. Average occupancy is
expected to inch down by about 1-3% for all multiplexes. ATP is
expected to remain stable sequentially at about | 133-150.

Logistics- 3QFY2011 ICICI Securities: Result Preview

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Logistics

ƒ Container volumes to report healthy growth
Overall volumes at 12 major ports during April-November 2010 have
registered 0.8% YoY increase at 365.9 million tonnes (MT) while
container volumes have increased by 12.3% to 5.0 million TEUs.
Going forward, the trend of outperformance of container volumes
vis-à-vis overall port volumes is expected to continue. In Q3FY11E,
we expect container volumes to  increase ~11.9% YoY to ~1.9
million TEUs.

Information Technology- 3QFY2011 ICICI Securities: Result Preview

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Information Technology


ƒ CY11 IT budget commentary remains the key
Tier I IT companies, led by TCS and Infosys, could report an average
~4-6.5% US$ revenue growth helped in part by volumes and ~2-
9% QoQ depreciation of the US$ against the Euro, British Pound and
Australian dollar. However, at 3.5%, sequential rupee revenue
growth could be muted due to 3.5% appreciation of the currency
against the US$. Although companies are likely to report strong
volume growth of (~4-6%), despite fewer working days, we believe
management tone on CY11 budgets, discretionary spend trends,
Europe, fresher hiring and wage inflation could dictate near term
share price volatility. While structural demand outlook remains
intact, unwarranted expectations  led rally in tech stocks leaves
modest room for disappointments. That said, our estimates are
conservative relative to consensus and upgrades post earnings are
likely

Hotels- 3QFY2011 ICICI Securities: Result Preview

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Hotels


ƒ To report average revenue growth of ~11% YoY in Q3FY11E
Average revenue growth for the I-direct universe is expected to be
in the range of 10-11% in Q3FY11E. The growth in revenues would
be mainly driven by improvement in occupancy levels, which we
expect to improve by 400 bps YoY to 74% in Q3FY11. Average
room rates (ARRs) are expected to improve marginally by 4-5%
during the same period. QoQ, companies are expected to report
average revenue growth of 34.2% on account of the peak season.

Hospitals- 3QFY2011 ICICI Securities: Result Preview

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Hospitals


ƒ Hospital revenues to grow 41.2% YoY
We expect our I-direct hospital  universe revenues to increase by
41.2% YoY on the back of robust revenue growth by Fortis
Healthcare, as there would be incremental revenue inflow of ~| 85
crore from 10 Wockhardt hospitals. Overall, we expect in-patient
volume and average revenue per bed (ARPOB) to grow by 7% and
8% YoY, respectively, for the quarter.

FMCG- 3QFY2011 ICICI Securities: Result Preview

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FMCG


FMCG
ƒ Price led growth in revenues
Sales growth of ~19% in Q2FY11 was led by almost a 15% increase
in volumes. However, in Q3FY11E, we expect growth to be driven by
the impact of increase in prices. Companies across the sector had
taken calibrated price increases in H1FY11 with Marico taking the first
round of price increase across few SKUs of Parachute and Saffola in
August, 2010 by ~5% and the second in October, 2010 by ~7%.
Dabur increased prices of Odonil, Meswak and Vatika Hair Oil by 5%,
3% and 7%, respectively, in the past three months. Asian Paints and
Kansai raised prices in phases in April, June, August and October to
almost 11% YTD in the decorative paints segment. Thus, the impact
from these would be witnessed in revenue growth in Q3FY11.

Construction & Infrastructure- 3QFY2011 ICICI Securities: Result Preview

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Construction & Infrastructure

ƒ Execution improvement to lead revenue growth
After the two quarters of execution blues by infrastructure companies,
we expect the construction and  infrastructure sector coverage
universe to post a healthy revenue growth of ~21% YoY in Q3FY11.
This will be on the back of execution pick-up post heavy monsoon
season with JAL and PEL expected to lead the revenue growth with
26.5% and 24.4% YoY growth, respectively.

Cement - 3QFY2011 ICICI Securities: Result Preview

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 Cement


ƒ Volumes grow ~6% YoY (~8% QoQ) in Q3FY11
In Q3FY11, the all-India cement sales volume has been muted and is
expected to grow 5.6% YoY against 9.4% in Q3FY10 and 3.3% in
Q2FY11. Low dispatches during November-December 2010
(declined ~18% YoY in November) offset the 18% YoY growth
recorded in October 2010. In YTDFY11, dispatches grew 5.2% YoY
against 10% in FY10. Volumes were impacted in Q3FY11 on account
of labour shortage due to the festive season, political turmoil in
Andhra Pradesh, slowdown in infrastructure activities followed by
prolonged monsoon season in several parts of the country. Capacity
utilisation for Q3FY11 and YTDFY11 is expected at 75% against 87%
in FY10. The decline in utilisation rate was on account of ~40 MTPA
of new capacities that have been stabilised during YTDFY11. We
expect utilisation rate for FY12E at 82% against 78% for FY11E on
account of higher incremental demand compared to incremental
effective capacity.

Capital Goods - 3QFY2011 ICICI Securities: Result Preview

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Capital Goods


ƒ Order inflows lagging but some signs of pick up evident
Project announcements (projects worth  | 9.5 trillion have been
announced in H1FY11), better utilisation levels (robust asset
turnover ratios are showing robust signs of a capex pick-up) and
increasing end product prices will encourage corporates (rising
prices of commodities like copper, coal and crude will call for capex
from metals and process sectors) to invest in capacity creation. This,
in turn, will lead to order flows for the capital goods sector. Though
the IIP and IIP for capital goods have been volatile in the past few
months, we believe robust consumption growth will lead to spillover of order inflows in Q4FY11E and H1FY12E.
ƒ

Broking - 3QFY2011 ICICI Securities: Result Preview

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Broking


ƒ Contribution of cash segment plunges further to 14%...
Though the overall daily turnover (ADT) is on a steady rise for the
past three to four quarters, contribution of the cash segment is
consistently sloping down. This segment contributed 20% in
Q4FY10. It stabilised at 16% in the subsequent two quarters and is
now down to the historic low of 14% for Q3FY11. In the trailing one
year futures segment, ADT grew a staggering 230% to | 42810 crore
in Q3FY11 from  |  18641 in Q4FY10, contributing 29% to the total
market turnover. This indicates that despite the steep correction in
the midcap space, risk appetite is still high. Options segment forms
remaining 57% to total turnover for Q3FY11.

Banking and Financial Institutions - 3QFY2011 ICICI Securities: Result Preview

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ƒ Credit picks up; rising costs offset base rate hike, to impact NIM…
Recent RBI data
 reveals a healthy credit growth of 23.7% YoY and
subdued deposit growth at 14% YoY. Interestingly, incremental
lending of | 1709 billion in Q3FY11 comprises | 453 billion added in
the last fortnight

Aviation - 3QFY2011 ICICI Securities: Result Preview

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Aviation 
ƒ Robust growth in pax traffic to continue in Q3FY11
Domestic air carriers are expected to post growth of ~23% QoQ in
passenger traffic during Q3FY11 to 14.9 millions on account of
improved economic environment  and peak season. Average yield
per pax has also gone up by over 12% QoQ on limited supply of
aircrafts. With healthy load factors and improved yields compared to
the last quarter, we expect our I-direct aviation universe revenues to
grow by 25.5% YoY and 21.5% QoQ respectively.

Auto and auto ancillary- 3QFY2011 ICICI Securities: Result Preview

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Auto and auto ancillary 
ƒ Demand sustenance leads to OEM topline growth
Q3FY11 has seen growth of ~27% YoY and ~5% QoQ on strong
volumes despite December being a traditionally weak month. This
has raised the expectations of a stronger Q4, which would confirm
the expected strength of demand based on the rising middle class
and increasing affordability of the same. PV segment has grown in
FY11 (~27% YTD) & ~26% YoY (ex-Hyundai). It has witnessed new
launches at attractive price points and discounts. CV segment has
continued to see healthy growth  of ~22% YoY due to increasing
freight activity linked to manufacturing and infrastructure. However,
due to pre-buying in September 2010 with BS-III implementation in
October 2010, volumes declined ~1% QoQ. Two-wheeler segment
has seen strong rural and Tier-II, III cities led demand, which has
seen ~27% YoY growth. We expect our OEM universe to report
topline growth of 27.3% YoY & a sequential jump of 1.8%.

Kotak Securities:: LIC Housing Finance: Management meeting update

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Management meeting update. We returned fairly positive from a meeting with Mr
V.K. Sharma, the new Chief Executive of LIC Housing Finance. Mr Sharma is confident
of growth and assured us that the bribes-for-loan scam is not a cause for concern.
LICHF’s retail lending continues to grow rapidly though the company has temporarily
paused new approvals of developer loans. We retain our positive outlook for the
business amidst concerns about high bulk borrowings rates which can impact NIMs for
NBFCs. Retain ADD rating.

Global Property Insight Rallying into the New Year: Macquarie Research,

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Global real estate trends up in December
December was a good month, with gains in all global real estate securities
markets. Globally, however, the sector (+5.9% in US$) still underperformed the
global equity market (+7.2% in US$). In US$, Europe was the best performing
region in December, up +10.8%, compared to -12.4% last month.

IIP comes in below expectations, driven down by consumer goods:: Edelweiss

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The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) reported 2.7% growth Y-o-Y for November against our expectations of 6.0% and consensus’ 6.6%. While the weakness in November was broad-based across sectors, consumer goods led the major decline in the headline number. Consumer durables, which was quite strong in the recent months (April-October, at average ~25%), has slowed down sharply to a little over 4% in November, partly reflecting the expected ebb in production in a post-Diwali month. Meanwhile, what is notable is the growth in the consumer non-durables category, which was on a weakening trend, turned negative in November. This weakness could partly be attributed to high and sticky inflation. Growth in intermediate goods, which held steady between 9% and 10% Y-o-Y, also slowed down considerably to 2.4%, reflecting moderation in the overall industrial growth. Going ahead, December and March numbers are likely to be particularly weak, given the high base effect in these months. However, uptick in credit growth and exports in recent months as well as robust PMI index are indicative of industrial activity recovering from its soft patch.

Importantly, weak trends in IIP and rising inflation pose a challenge for the monetary policy. While price stabilization is dominant concern for RBI, an aggressive tightening by RBI (given the tight liquidity conditions) could impact sentiments.

IGL | 3QFY2011 Result Update: Angel Broking

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IGL – 3QFY2011 Result Update

Angel Broking maintains a Neutral on IGL

IGL’s 3QFY2011 result was marginally below our expectation both on the top-line

and bottom-line fronts. Top-line registered a growth of 59.7% yoy to `457cr

(`286cr) as against our expectation of `461cr. Bottom-line during the quarter

stood at `67.2cr (`58.9cr), registering a yoy increase of 14% and was marginally

lower than our expectation mainly on account of higher interest cost and lowerthan-

expected other income. We had projected bottom-line to come in at `70.2cr

during the quarter. We maintain Neutral on the stock.

CRISIL – Initiating Coverage- BUY target Rs7,584: Angel Broking

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CRISIL – Initiating Coverage

Angel Broking Initiates Coverage on CRISIL with a Buy recommendation and Target Price of Rs7,584

CRISIL is the largest credit rating agency with a market share of around 65% and is
one of the biggest research houses in India. With the recent acquisition of Pipal
Research Corp. (Pipal), robust credit demand and strong infrastructure-spend, we
expect strong growth across all the segments of the company. The company has
also recently finished a buyback of 1.3lakh shares worth `80cr at an average price
of `6,200. We Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy rating.

Goldman Sachs: Modest value unlocking from L&T Finance spin-off, retain Neutral

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COMPANY UPDATE
Larsen & Toubro (LART.BO)
Neutral Equity Research
Modest value unlocking from L&T Finance spin-off, retain Neutral
What's changed
L&T has filed a draft prospectus to spin off its finance business and list it
as a separate entity. The businesses intended to be listed under L&T
Finance Holding Ltd (LTFHL) before Q4FY11-end include the infrastructure
finance, retail & corporate finance, and investment management
subsidiaries. As of FY10 end, L&T’s finance division had a loan book of
Rs114 bn and revenue of Rs14 bn for FY10.

Macquarie: Oil & Gas- Brent premium to WTI near two-year high; equities up WoW

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Oil & Gas Atlas
Brent premium to WTI near two-year high; equities up WoW
Energy Market Indices WoW Changes
⇒ S&P/TSX Energy Index: +1.2%
⇒ S&P 500 E&P Index: 0%
⇒ Oil Service Sector Index: +0.8%
⇒ UK FTSE Oil & Gas Producers Index: +1.7%
⇒ Asia Pacific Oil & Gas Producers Index: -0.9%

Accumulate: Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals: Asit C Mehta

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Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals


We initiate coverage on Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd (GSFC) with
“ACCUMULATE” recommendation and target price of `357, based on 6x FY12E
EPS of `59.4. GSFC manufactures fertilizers and industrial products, which contribute
71% and 29% respectively, for FY10 revenue. GSFC has a large market share of
63% in Gujarat for DAP (Di-ammonium phosphate). DAP contributed 71% of total
fertilizer revenue in FY10, having total capacity of 0.8 million tonnes. In industrial
products segment, caprolactam contributed ~50% of the total revenue in FY10.
We expect DAP revenue to grow at CAGR of 5% during FY10-FY12E on back of
introduction of NBS policy by the government. Caprolactam revenue is expected
grow at CAGR of 15% due to increase in the prices.

Macquarie Agri-View- Anticipating bullish USDA reports

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Macquarie Agri-View
Anticipating bullish USDA reports
Feature article
 The market faces a barrage of key USDA reports this week. On 12 January
2011 the USDA will release the January WASDE, the final 2010/11 Crop
Production Report, the December Quarterly Stocks Report, and a Winter
Wheat Seedings report. Each of these reports has the potential to significantly
alter the fundamental parameters of the grain and oilseed markets.

Coromandel International Concall Invite 13 Jan 2011 at 3.30 PM: Emkay

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Grey Market Premium: C. Mahendra, Midvalley IPOs: Jan 12th, 2011

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Company Name	Offer Price	Premium
	(Rs.)	(Rs.)
C. Mahendra Export	95 to 110	3 to 4
Midvalley entertainment	64 to 70	8 to 9

FII & DII trading activity on NSE and BSE as on 12-Jan-2011

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FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 12-Jan-2011.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 12-Jan-2011 3366.8 3738.3 -371.5

Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance, MFs and New Pension System on 12-Jan-2011.

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 12-Jan-2011 1495.93 1136.72 359.21

 

 

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 12-Jan-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 12-Jan-2011
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	101069	2918.61	107943	3135.77	415591	12131.55	-217.16
INDEX OPTIONS	415454	11963.18	402527	11611.75	1637405	47811.27	351.43
STOCK FUTURES	93654	2641.58	70859	1925.97	1298098	34434.47	715.60
STOCK OPTIONS	24073	732.31	24706	747.32	17083	505.19	-15.01
						Total	834.86

 

Bajaj Electricals (E&P to bounce back in 2HFY11, BUY): IIFL

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Bajaj Electricals (E&P to bounce back in 2HFY11, BUY): 


During our recent meeting with the company, management reiterated its expectation of a rebound in E&P segment margins, which were impaired by low-margin projects executed for the Commonwealth Games during 2QFY11. For 3QFY11, we expect the company to report a 200bps QoQ improvement in overall margins, but YoY, they would be down 50bps, owing to pressure from copper and aluminium prices in the consumer segment. We reduce our earnings estimate for FY11 by 4% to account for the margin compression. Overall, we continue to expect a rebound in PAT growth during 2HFY11 (~20% YoY) from the flat PAT recorded during 1HFY11.

Midvalley Entertainment: Final Over Subscription Details: 4x; retail 9x

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MIDVALLEY ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED


           

Total Issue Size	9375000
Total Bids Received	37776655
Total Bids Received at Cut-off Price	27621820
No. of times issue is subscribed	4.03

Sr.No.	Category	No.of shares offered/reserved	No. of shares bid for	No. of times of total meant for the category
1	Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs)	4687500	1630010	0.35
1(a)	Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)		1429940
1(b)	Domestic Financial Institutions(Banks/ Financial Institutions(FIs)/ Insurance Companies)		0
1(c)	Mutual Funds		0
1(d)	Others		200070
2	Non Institutional Investors	1406250	6577515	4.68
2(a)	Corporates		3278355
2(b)	Individuals (Other than RIIs)		3299160
2(c)	Others		0
3	Retail Individual Investors (RIIs)	3281250	29569130	9.01
3(a)	Cut Off		27621820
3(b)	Price Bids		1947310

Updated as on 12 January 2011 at 1730 hrs


Click here to see grey market premium for IPOs