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09 November 2011

Result Previews State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Hindalco, Apollo Tyres, CESC, Ranbaxy, Bharat Forge, Lupin, :: Angel Broking,

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Result Previews
State Bank of India
State Bank of India is scheduled to announce its 2QFY2012 results. We expect the
bank to report healthy net interest income growth of 21.9% on a yoy basis
(marginal growth of 2.0% on a qoq basis). Non-interest income is expected to
decline by 8.5% yoy due to lower treasury income. Consequently, the bank’s
operating income is expected to grow moderately by 11.9% yoy. Provisioning
expenses are expected to increase by 22.7% yoy, considering the cyclical
headwinds to asset quality. Net profit growth is expected to be moderate at 10.7%
yoy to `2,769cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.5x FY2013E ABV before
adjusting for subsidiaries (1.3x post adjustment). We maintain our Buy rating on
the stock with the target price of `2,239.

Tata Steel
Tata Steel is slated to report its consolidated 2QFY2012 results. We expect net
sales to increase by 8.0% yoy to `30,936cr mainly on account of higher steel
prices. However, EBITDA margin is expected to contract by 32bp yoy to 12.5% on
account of higher raw-material costs (mainly in its European operations).
Net profit is expected to decrease by 32.3% yoy to `1,339cr. We maintain our Buy
rating on the stock with a target price of `614.

Hindalco
Hindalco is slated to report its 2QFY2012 results. We expect standalone net sales
to increase by 4.1% yoy to `6,039cr mainly on account of increased aluminium
prices. EBITDA margin is expected to improve by 145bp yoy to 12.5% on account
of rise in aluminium prices, partially offset by rising cost of key inputs (primarily
coal). Net profit is expected to increase by 37.3% yoy to `596cr. We maintain our
Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `177.

Ranbaxy Laboratories – 3QCY2011
For 3QCY2011, we expect Ranbaxy to post top-line growth of 9.1% on a yoy basis
to `2,054cr. The company's GPM is expected to expand by 200bp yoy to 6.7%.
We recommend a Buy rating on stock with a target price of `593.

Lupin
Lupin is expected to announce its 2QFY2012 results. The company is expected to
register sales growth of 9.8% yoy. The company’s OPM is expected to contract by
110bp yoy. Consequently, the company's net profit is expected to increase by
3.1% yoy. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `593.


Bharat Forge
Bharat Forge is slated to announce its 2QFY2012 results. On a standalone basis,
we expect the company to deliver 20% yoy growth in its revenue to `839cr. EBITDA
margin is expected to witness a contraction of 72bp yoy to 23.5%. However, net
profit is expected to increase strongly by 32% yoy to `90cr. The stock rating is
under review.

CESC
CESC is expected to announce its 2QFY2012 results. We expect the company to
register 6% yoy growth in its standalone top line to `1,155cr, aided by better
realization. OPM is expected to decline by 455bp yoy to 23.3% on account of
higher base. The company had reported negative other expenses of `14cr in
2QFY2011, which boosted its operating margins considerably. For 2QFY2012, we
expect the company’s net profit to dip by 6% yoy to `146cr. We maintain our Buy
rating on the stock with a target price of `383.

Apollo Tyres
Apollo Tyres is slated to announce its 2QFY2012 results. On a consolidated basis,
we expect the company to report a strong 44% yoy increase in its revenue to
`2,809cr. The company’s EBITDA margin is expected to post a decline of 111bp
yoy to 8.4%. Consequently, the company’s net profit is estimated to report a 40%
yoy increase to `74cr. The stock rating is under review.

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