04 November 2011

Result Previews ONGC , NCC, Marico. GSK, Nestle, Airtel

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Result Previews
ONGC
ONGC is slated to announce its 2QFY2012 results. We expect the company’s top
line to grow by 24.7% yoy to `22,991cr mainly on account of higher realization.
ONGC's subsidy amount for 2QFY2012 would be significantly lower than
1QFY2012 due to (1) price increases on diesel, kerosene and LPG and (2) excise
tax reduction on diesel and customs duty cuts on crude oil, diesel and gasoline
implemented by the government during June 2011. On the operating front,
EBITDA margin is expected to decline by 495bp yoy to 55.0%. The bottom line is
expected to grow by 14.3% yoy to `6,161cr. We maintain our Buy view on the
stock with a target price of `326.
Bharti Airtel
Bharti Airtel is slated to announce its 2QFY2012 results. We expect the company to
record revenue of `17,091cr with merely 0.6% qoq growth due to seasonality in
2Q. This is expected primarily on the back of growth in qoq flat ARPM at
`0.43/min and 3.0% qoq decline in MOU to 432. Also, we expect Zain’s mobile
business revenue to grow by 7.4% qoq to `4,703cr, with EBITDA margin of 27.2%.
Consolidated EBITDA margin of the company is expected to decline by 88bp qoq
to 32.7%. PAT is expected at `1,308cr. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the
stock with a target price of `430.
Nestle – 3QCY2011
Nestle is expected to announce its 3QCY2011 results. For the quarter, we expect
the company to post modest 17.8% yoy growth in its top line to `1,928cr, aided by
steady growth across categories. Earnings for the quarter are expected to register
healthy 20.4% yoy growth to `263cr, aided by margin expansion of 84bp to
20.5%. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
GSK Pharmaceuticals – 3QCY2011
GSK Pharmaceuticals is expected to announce its 3QCY2011 results. For the
quarter, we expect the company to post modest 7.8% yoy growth in its top line to
`627cr, aided by steady growth across categories. Earnings for the quarter are
expected to register healthy 2.7% yoy growth to `162cr, aided by margin dip of
350bp to 32.4%. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
GSK Consumer – 3QCY2011
GSK Consumer is slated to announce its 3QCY2011 numbers. For the quarter, we
expect GSK Consumer to post healthy top-line growth of 20% yoy to `735cr,
driven by growth in its core brands. The bottom line is expected to register modest

growth of 14.3% yoy to `90, aided by top-line growth and margin contraction of
32bp to 15.2%. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Marico
Marico is expected to announce its 2QFY2012 results. For the quarter, we expect
Marico to report healthy 26.3% yoy growth in its consolidated top line to `984cr,
driven by steady growth in its core brands, Parachute and Saffola. Marico’s
earnings for the quarter are expected to remain flat owing to a 90bp yoy operating
margin contraction due to high raw-material costs. We maintain our Neutral
recommendation on the stock.
Nagarjuna Construction Company
We expect subdued performance from Nagarjuna Construction (NCC) for this
quarter. On the top-line front, NCC is expected to post modest yoy growth of 5.0%
to `1,261cr. EBITDA margin is expected to be flat at ~10.3% for the quarter.
However, the blow is expected on the earnings front, as we expect the company to
post a decline of 35.1% on a yoy basis to `29.8cr (`46.0cr) for the quarter. This
would be primarily on account of burgeoning interest cost (yoy jump of ~79.4%),
led by elongated working capital cycle. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock
with a target price of `82.

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