21 November 2011

Buy GMR Infrastructure; Target : Rs 32:: ICICI Securities

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N e t   l o s s e s   l o w e r   t h a n   e x p e c t e d …
GMR Infrastructure’s (GMR) Q2FY12 net losses were lower than expected
largely on account of better-than-expected revenues and margin in the
other segment (investment income, project management fees & charter
rental income). During the quarter, GMR agreed to sell a 30% stake in
GMR Energy (Singapore) implying deal value of ~S$50 million and
contributing |1.7/share in our SOTP valuation. We maintain BUY.
ƒ Q2FY12 losses lower than expected…
GMR’s net sales grew 48.3% in  Q2FY12 mainly on account of
consolidation of the Male Airport  (| 225 crore). The net losses came
lower at | 62.5 crore vs. our expectation of | 91.1 crore largely on
account of higher revenues and EBIT margin in the other segment
(includes investment income, project management fees & charter rental
income). The others division revenues grew 56.2% sequentially at |190
crore with the EBIT margin of 77.2% in Q2FY12 (38.4% in Q1FY12).
ƒ AERA, gas allocation uncertainty remains…
The company has raised bridge loan to account for funding shortage
due to suspension of ADF collection at DIAL. We believe any
development on the tariff fixation from AERA will be a key trigger. The
Rajahmundry project is on track and GMR expects the commissioning
of the same by Q4FY12. However,  the uncertainty over gas allocation
for the plant continues to persist.
ƒ Sale of 30% stake in Jurong Island project
During  Q2FY12,  GMR  agreed  to  sell  a  30%  stake  in  GMR  Energy
(Singapore) Pte to Petronas International Corp. The deal was done at a
30% premium to its equity investment (S$127 million) implying a deal
value of ~ S$50 million for a 30% stake.
V a l u a t i o n
At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.0 FY13 P/BV. With uncertainty over
airport regulation and concern over gas supply looming large, we believe
any positive development on the airport issue will act as a key catalyst for
GMR’s stock price performance. We maintain our BUY recommendation
on the stock with a revised SOTP based price target of | 32/share. We
have now incorporated GMR Energy (Singapore - |1.7/share), EPC
business (|1 /share) and standalone net debt (-|4/share).

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