21 September 2011

US economic growth and euro zone debt continue to plague equities:: Macquarie Research,

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US economic growth and euro zone
debt continue to plague equities
Energy Market Indices WoW Changes
⇒ S&P/TSX Energy Index: -5.1%
⇒ S&P 500 E&P Index: -5.8%
⇒ Oil Service Sector Index: -4.1%
⇒ UK FTSE Oil & Gas Producers Index: +0.7%
⇒ Asia Pacific Oil & Gas Producers Index: -1.7%
Weekly Market Recap
Concerns over economic growth and weak demand for oil continued to be the main
pressure points for the oil last week, offsetting bullish sentiment from Libya's civil war,
the threat of hurricanes and a battered US dollar. Oil prices have been highly volatile
for much of the past month as investors have been torn between lackluster economic
data in the developed world and increased efforts to find a lasting solution to the Euro
zone crisis. Last week, crude oil fluctuated between a low of US$83.20/bbl and high of
US$90.23/bbl before settling at US$87.01/bbl to end the week down -2.2%.
US crude inventories declined by 4.0mmbbls last week, nearly doubling expectations
for a 2.2mmbbl draw. But a surprise 0.2mmbbl rise in gasoline versus an expected
draw of 1.4mmbbl tempered gains in a cautious market ahead of Obama's key speech
to Congress on jobs later Thursday night. Obama unveiled a $447bn package of tax
cuts and new spending to revive a stalled job market, but he will face an uphill battle
with Republicans. Earlier in the day, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke
highlighted an elevated jobless rate and sluggish growth and hinted that the central
bank may ease monetary policy further at its September meeting.
Natural gas posted gains late in the week, partially offsetting losses earlier in the week,
after the weekly report indicated inventories rose broadly in line with expectations,
further supported by concerns over a disruption to US supplies in the Gulf of Mexico.
Storage in the US rose by 64bcf, after increasing by, in line with expectations of a build
of 60bcf. NYMEX closed the week at US$3.92/mmbtu, down -3.2% WoW.
In Canada, we released a strategy report titled, Looking for a late season recovery.
In the report we stress test our coverage universe with US$70/bbl WTI and
US$4.67/mmbtu Henry Hub for 2012 to come up with our best defensive ideas.
In the European space, Tullow's Zaedyus discovery announced offshore French
Guiana is frankly the highlight of the European E&P industry YTD! Wildcat well GMES-
1 opened up a new basin east of the Demerara High, and placed Tullow 27% up
on the week. In other news, it was a relatively positive week for the Euro Integrateds
with BP declaring exploration successes at Moccasin and Mad Dog in the GoM and
Total announcing a multi-tcf discovery at Absheron in the Caspian Sea offshore
Azerbaijan. There were widespread media reports suggesting the Greenstream gas
pipeline between Italy and Libya could return to commercial operations as early as the
middle of next month (positive for Eni); however, international oil exports from Libya
are not expected to return to pre-conflict levels until YE12

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