09 August 2011

Oil & Gas Atlas Energy equities deep in red :: Macquarie Research,

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Oil & Gas Atlas
Energy equities deep in red
Energy Market Indices WoW Changes
⇒ S&P/TSX Energy Index: -3.9%
⇒ S&P 500 E&P Index: -3.2%
⇒ Oil Service Sector Index: -2.2%
⇒ UK FTSE Oil & Gas Producers Index: -1.5%
⇒ Asia Pacific Oil & Gas Producers Index: -0.6%
Weekly Market Recap
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices declined 4.2% over the past week, to
settle at US$95.70/bbl, primarily driven by bearish EIA numbers and economic data.
Specifically, the EIA announced that domestic crude oil inventories increased by 2.3mmb
compared with expectations for a draw of 2.0mmb. On Friday, the US Commerce
Department reported annualized 2Q GDP growth of 1.3% and revised 1Q growth to just
0.4% from 1.9%. In addition to these two negative data points, markets have received
downward pressure from the uncertainty regarding how the US will resolve its debt ceiling
issues. Henry Hub natural gas prices also closed lower last week, falling 5.8% to
US$4.15/Mcf, on cooler weather forecasts and a larger than expected storage injection.
The Canadian large cap space was headlined by 2Q11 earning announcements from
Suncor and Cenovus. Cenovus reported CFPS of C$1.24, exceeding our expectations of
C$0.95 and consensus of C$0.97. These results were primarily driven by strength in the
downstream segment which reported cashflow of C$322m compared with guidance of
C$150–200m. At the other end of the spectrum Suncor reported CFPS of C$1.26, below
our estimate of C$1.44 and consensus of C$1.30. Production was light at 460mboe/d
compared with our estimate of 465mboe/d. Suncor also realized a C$514m impairment
on its Libyan assets, which remain shut-in indefinitely due to civil unrest in the nation.
In the US, Occidental petroleum reported 2Q EPS of US$2.23, beating both our estimate
and consensus of US$2.15, despite production averaging 2% below our forecast. Of note
in Oxy’s results was continued success in California where the company announced a
50% acceleration to its prior 2011 drilling plan. Schlumberger also reported a strong
quarter with EPS of US$0.87 versus consensus of US$0.82. Supporting these results
was strength in both North American and International markets as the company appears
to have sidestepped the international weakness affecting its peers.
In Europe, 2Q11 earnings for the Integrated’s dominated news flow last week. Key
takeaways included the divergence in upstream earnings between RD Shell and BP.
Shell's 2Q11 upstream net income per barrel increased 34% QoQ to $19.5/bbl in contrast
to BP, which reported flat margins QoQ at $15.4/bbl. Concerns into results about the
weakness of the Iberian downstream proved ill-founded with both Galp and Repsol
beating consensus forecasts. Eni's exposure to Libya across both its upstream and
downstream portfolio was largely behind its 4% miss on consensus.
In the E&P space, Afren joined in the rush to Kurdistan by acquiring two PSC licences for
US$588m. Tullow completed the acquisition of EO Group's Ghana assets (Jubilee and
West Cape Three Points) as expected. Valiant spudded its first Norwegian exploration
well targeting the Chamonix / Cortina stacked prospects and San Leon confirmed plans
to spud two wells in Poland in September, including its first Polish shale gas exploration
well.

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