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07 August 2011

Maruti Suzuki India - Currency the key driver, Maintain Accumulate: Emkay

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Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.
Currency the key driver, Maintain Accumulate


ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs 1,178                                       Target Price: Rs 1,400

n     Strong operational performance (EBIDTA at Rs 8.1bn vs est. of Rs 7.4bn) results in PAT of Rs 5.5bn (est. Rs 4.1bn). Key highlight was higher ASP (up 4% YoY vs est. of 1% decline) 
n     Demand outlook to remain subdued for sometime given another rate increase. Expect demand to pick from festive season. Inventory in the system at ~4 to 5 weeks
n     Lower our FY12/FY13 volumes by 6.3%6.7%. Factoring in prevailing forex rates as Yen exposure is hedged only for 2QFY12
n     Lower FY12/FY13 EPS est. by 13.5%/18% to Rs 88.6/100. Lower our TP to Rs 1,400 (down 20%), retain ACCUMULATE rating. Key upside risk arises from favorable forex movement

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