09 August 2011

Hold Bharti Airtel; Target : Rs 450:: ICICI Securities

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O p e r a t i n g   p e r f o r m a n c e   i n   l i n e ,   P A T   d i s a p p o i n t s …
Bharti Airtel declared its Q1FY12  numbers, which were operationally in
line with our estimates but below our estimates on the PAT front owing to
a higher-than-expected interest cost and a higher tax outgo. The
company reported a topline of | 16974.5 crore against our expectation of
| 16973.9 crore, registering QoQ growth of 4.4%. The EBITDA margin
jumped a marginal 10 bps QoQ to 33.6%. EBITDA for the quarter stood at
| 5698.0 crore against our expectation of | 5656.2 crore. However, at the
net level, the company reported a PAT of | 1215.2 as against our
expectation of | 1484.7 crore. The variance was primarily due to a higherthan-expected interest cost at | 855.0 crore against our expectation of |
681.5 crore and a higher tax outgo of | 514.1 crore at 29.9% of PBT, up
from 27.3% in last quarter, owing to a reduction in tax holiday benefit.
ƒ Highlights of the quarter
ARPU for India stood  at | 190, down from | 194, declining 1.6%
QoQ. MoU also saw a marginal decline and fell to 445 from 449
QoQ. ARPM declined 0.9% to 42.8 paisa. The Indian subscriber base
grew by 4.3% sequentially to 169.2 million. Traffic on the network
grew by 4.6% QoQ to 222 billion minutes. ARPU for African
operations was at $7.3, improving by 1.6% QoQ while MoU
improved by 5.1% to 121.
V a l u a t i o n
The operating performance was in line with our estimates but a higher
interest and tax expenses resulted in a lower than expected PAT. An
uptake in 3G services, regulatory clarity and a turnaround in Africa would
remain key factors in the near term. At the CMP of | 422, the stock is
trading at 17.7 FY13E. Using the  DCF methodology and assuming
revenue CAGR of 12.8% over FY11–FY20E and terminal growth of 3.0%
thereon, we have arrived at a target price of | 450/share. Due to the
recent run up in the stock, we rate the stock as HOLD

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