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India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
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India Banks: Twin growth drivers: pvt consumption & working capital [Manish Shukla]
Latest RBI data on sector deployment of credit indicate that ~20% of banking system loan growth is being driven by consumer and corporate working capital demand. This underscores our view that private final consumption expenditure remains strong, even though gross fixed capital formation is moderating. Banks indicate that consumer demand from non-metro locations remains strong. We expect FY12 banking system loan growth of ~18%. With substantial upside to our TPs, HDFC Bank and HDFC Ltd are our top picks to play this theme.
DLF: Inline 1Q operations with better than expected EBITDA [Abhay Shanbhag]
Inline operational performance in seasonally weak 1Q: (1) Good residential presales of 2.2msf (1.9 in previous 1Q & 3.8 in 4Q) of which 1.3msf is plots but weak leasing of office space of 0.73msf (0.98, 1.4 gross). Delivery of ~1.9msf made entirely of office space (1.37, 3.39). This is on track for FY12e guidance of ~12msf of pre-sales, ~3msf of leasing &~12msf of deliveries (2) Expected slow monetisation at INR 1.6bn on targeted INR 60bn over 2-3 years.
JSW Steel: Waiting for August 5 [Abhay Laijawala]
The Indian supreme court has imposed a blanket ban on iron ore mining in Bellary region accounting for 75-80% of iron ore production in Karnataka state, with next hearing scheduled for Aug. 5. Court has asked Ministry of Environment to submit an interim report on iron ore needs of domestic steelmakers and supply feed of iron ore from Bellary for domestic steel production.
Telecommunications: Govt goes after the golden goose [Srinivas Rao]
News reports (Economic Times) indicate potential telecom policy changes by the Telecom Commission that would have negative implications for incumbent operators like Bharti and Idea. The key policy issues are: * Licence renewal only for 10 years (vs expectation of 20years). * Only 6.2MHz spectrum to be given at the time of renewal (Bharti/Idea have an average of 8Mhz spectrum in their key circles which will come up for renewal in 3-4 years time). * Uniform license fee at 8.5% of revenue - Bharti and Idea already pay around 9% of revenues as licence fees and hence no impact incrementally.
Asia Economics Daily: India: PM's Council Expects Growth to Slow in FY11/12 [Taimur Baig]
According to the Prime Minister's Advisory Council's report (released yesterday), the Indian economy will slow somewhat in 2011/12. The Council sees real GDP to grow by 8.2% during the fiscal year, which is within our 8-8.5% forecast range.
The Investigator / Quick Thoughts: Some Unconventional Risks [Ajay Kapur]
The conventional risks – sovereign issues in Europe and the US – are well covered by the research community, and in the press. Using the Pareto principle (the “80-20” rule), we think that, while these are important issues, the damage done to portfolios so far this year has come from more mundane, yet concentrated risks.
Global Economic Perspectives: US Debt Ceiling Raise & Euro Rescue: Rough Roads Ahead [Peter Hooper]
The markets and the economy dodged a bullet when Congress and the Obama Administration finally came to terms on raising the debt ceiling this week. But getting there was a painful process, and the measures enacted left a great deal still to be done to put US fiscal policy on a sustainable path.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
India Banks: Twin growth drivers: pvt consumption & working capital [Manish Shukla]
Latest RBI data on sector deployment of credit indicate that ~20% of banking system loan growth is being driven by consumer and corporate working capital demand. This underscores our view that private final consumption expenditure remains strong, even though gross fixed capital formation is moderating. Banks indicate that consumer demand from non-metro locations remains strong. We expect FY12 banking system loan growth of ~18%. With substantial upside to our TPs, HDFC Bank and HDFC Ltd are our top picks to play this theme.
DLF: Inline 1Q operations with better than expected EBITDA [Abhay Shanbhag]
Inline operational performance in seasonally weak 1Q: (1) Good residential presales of 2.2msf (1.9 in previous 1Q & 3.8 in 4Q) of which 1.3msf is plots but weak leasing of office space of 0.73msf (0.98, 1.4 gross). Delivery of ~1.9msf made entirely of office space (1.37, 3.39). This is on track for FY12e guidance of ~12msf of pre-sales, ~3msf of leasing &~12msf of deliveries (2) Expected slow monetisation at INR 1.6bn on targeted INR 60bn over 2-3 years.
JSW Steel: Waiting for August 5 [Abhay Laijawala]
The Indian supreme court has imposed a blanket ban on iron ore mining in Bellary region accounting for 75-80% of iron ore production in Karnataka state, with next hearing scheduled for Aug. 5. Court has asked Ministry of Environment to submit an interim report on iron ore needs of domestic steelmakers and supply feed of iron ore from Bellary for domestic steel production.
Telecommunications: Govt goes after the golden goose [Srinivas Rao]
News reports (Economic Times) indicate potential telecom policy changes by the Telecom Commission that would have negative implications for incumbent operators like Bharti and Idea. The key policy issues are: * Licence renewal only for 10 years (vs expectation of 20years). * Only 6.2MHz spectrum to be given at the time of renewal (Bharti/Idea have an average of 8Mhz spectrum in their key circles which will come up for renewal in 3-4 years time). * Uniform license fee at 8.5% of revenue - Bharti and Idea already pay around 9% of revenues as licence fees and hence no impact incrementally.
Asia Economics Daily: India: PM's Council Expects Growth to Slow in FY11/12 [Taimur Baig]
According to the Prime Minister's Advisory Council's report (released yesterday), the Indian economy will slow somewhat in 2011/12. The Council sees real GDP to grow by 8.2% during the fiscal year, which is within our 8-8.5% forecast range.
The Investigator / Quick Thoughts: Some Unconventional Risks [Ajay Kapur]
The conventional risks – sovereign issues in Europe and the US – are well covered by the research community, and in the press. Using the Pareto principle (the “80-20” rule), we think that, while these are important issues, the damage done to portfolios so far this year has come from more mundane, yet concentrated risks.
Global Economic Perspectives: US Debt Ceiling Raise & Euro Rescue: Rough Roads Ahead [Peter Hooper]
The markets and the economy dodged a bullet when Congress and the Obama Administration finally came to terms on raising the debt ceiling this week. But getting there was a painful process, and the measures enacted left a great deal still to be done to put US fiscal policy on a sustainable path.
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