India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Telecom
Potential result outperformers: Bharti
Potential result underperformers: Reliance Com
Result Expectations – Key Highlights
Modest topline growth & stable EBITDA margins: We expect 1Q FY12 results
to reflect ~4% QoQ EBITDA improvement led by similar topline growth and stable
wireless margins in India.
Net profit trends may not be comparable due to 3G roll-out: Our 1Q FY12
estimates factor 3G amortization and interest for Bharti and Idea that have
already launched 3G operations across bulk of their footprint during 4Q FY11 &
1Q FY12. RCom has also launched 3G services in several circles but we do not
assume any accounting impact as the Co may remain in soft-launch mode.
Traffic momentum intact despite slower net adds: In Apr-May ’11, net adds of
listed majors put together slowed to an average 7.3mn per month from 9.2mn per
month in 4Q FY11. However, seasonally stronger usage should help to keep
traffic momentum intact. We expect traffic growth for the majors to remain steady
at an average level of 6% QoQ growth in line with 4Q FY11. Data for Apr-May ’11
shows that the majors (Bharti, RCom & Idea) garnered 51% of industry net adds
vs 46% share in 4Q FY11. BSNL and Tata DoCoMo were the major losers.
Benign attrition in revenue per minute to continue: Revenue per minute (rpm)
will likely post modest ~2% QoQ attrition as competition among the majors is still
high even though impact of smaller players is fading. The forecast 2% QoQ tariff
drop is benign relative to a 4-7% QoQ drop witnessed in the same quarter last
year for GSM majors.
Bharti Africa – likely to post strong performance: We expect Bharti-Africa to
post 10% QoQ growth in EBITDA led by acceleration in net adds and full-impact
of outsourcing agreements.
No comments:
Post a Comment