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India Automobile
Sales Tracker
Jun-11 - Domestic Sales growth moderates while
global luxury car sales growth is resilient
Domestic volume growth continued to moderate further in June. Sales
trends: Passenger car sales +7% yoy vs. +9% YTD; commercial
vehicle sales were up +20% vs. 17% YTD (driven by light trucks
+32% yoy; heavy commercial vehicle sales are up just 7% yoy) and
two wheeler sales were up 16% vs.18% YTD. Inventories have been
rising over the past quarter and stand at 3-4 weeks in certain regions.
Key data points on market share: Maruti continued to loose market
share to competition (-250bp YTD) in the passenger car segment, Tata
Motors has gained (180bp) market share in the commercial vehicle
segment. Hero Honda gained strength in domestic motorcycle market
share (260bps YTD).
Global luxury car sales growth is resilient: Luxury brands Audi,
BMW, and Mercedes-Benz saw healthy growth of 18.5%, 15.9%, and
6.4% respectively in June 2011. Audi's growth was driven by strong
China Sales (up 29% YoY) while US sales grew 16.9%. BMW saw a
growth of 15.1% YoY in US while China sales were up 38.8%YoY.
Mercedes saw China sales growth of 25.2% YoY, however US sales
moderated at 11% yoy
Maruti / SIAM lower sales guidance: Over the month, Maruti Suzuki
cut its volume guidance for the year to 7-8% as compared to 12-15%
earlier. The management cited higher fuel prices / interest rates for the
same. Similarly, SIAM has lowered its passenger car sales growth
outlook to 10-12% in FY12E (as compared to c.16-18% earlier).
The auto sector (+5% mom) outperformed the broader Sensex (+2%
mom) during the month – as commodity prices (crude oil, metals) have
eased. We believe that the sales growth is likely to remain weak in the
current monsoon quarter. We expect sales growth to revive over
2HFY12E as economic activity picks up
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