25 July 2011

Buy HT Media-- Target : Rs 188 ::ICICI Securities,

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HT Media


B e t t e r - t h a n - e x p e c t e d   p e r f o r m a n c e …
HT Media reported its Q1FY12 numbers, which surpassed our
expectations. The revenues for the quarter stood at | 494.4 crore against
our estimate of | 470.4 crore, growing 22.7% YoY. EBITDA for the quarter
stood at | 90.3 crore against our estimate of | 70.2 crore. The EBITDA
margin stood at 18.3%, which represents a 143 bps fall YoY. The
contraction in the EBITDA margin has been due to rising input prices. PAT
for the quarter stood at | 51.5 crore against our estimate of | 34.8 crore,
on the back of lower-than-expected rise in the input cost and more than
expected ad revenue growth.
ƒ Highlights for the quarter
In a quarter characterised by ad revenue slowdown, English ad
revenue growth was a pleasant surprise growing at 17.8% to | 273.6
crore.  Hindi  ad  revenues  also  posted  robust  growth  of  15.1%  to  |
110.8 crore. The radio segment also saw good traction with ad
growth of 74.8% to | 21.5 crore. HT Burda also performed well by
achieving EBITDA breakeven in just the second year of its
operations. The EBITDA margin, however, contracted by 143 bps to
18.3% primarily due to high input prices, which rose to | 173.7 crore
from | 135.1 crore.
V a l u a t i o n
The company has performed better than our expectations, testified by the
IRS Q1FY11 data. However, the slowdown in the economy and rising
newsprint prices remain a cause of concern, which can negatively impact
the margins. At the CMP of | 166, HT Media is currently trading at 18.7x
FY12E EPS and 14.1x FY13E EPS. We have valued the stock at 16x FY13E
EPS to arrive at a target price of | 188. This implies an upside of 13%. We
are upgrading the stock from HOLD to BUY

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