Please Share:: 
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
UBS Investment Research
India Oil and Gas Sector
I ndia oil monthly: Issue 9
Monthly oil demand growth picks up
According to Reuters and PPAC data, India’s oil product demand rose 4.2% YoY
to 3.09mbpd in April 2011. The growth was supported by higher LPG, gasoline,
and jet fuel use. FY11 product demand rose 3.3% YoY, slightly below our
expectations.
Diesel demand growth slowed; gasoline, jet fuel maintain growth rates
We believe the anomalous increase MoM in diesel sales last month was a precursor
to the state elections that were held in May. As expected, diesel sales growth over
the previous month slowed down in April. The increase in gasoline prices dented
demand only slightly and it maintained its trend of YoY growth. Jet fuel demand
grew fastest after the Oil Marketing Companies reduced ATF prices by ~4% in line
with international trends. Bitumen demand fell most over the previous year, in line
with slow execution on infrastructure projects.
High diesel demand growth—reflects growth but also increased subsidy
For the year, diesel continued to be the most heavily used petroleum product,
accounting for a little less than half of oil demand. Fuel is subsidised and the
government loses ~Rs15/litre of diesel sold; while high diesel demand growth
reflects positively on the economy, it also points to the higher fiscal burden due to
the increased subsidy outgo. We expect that the ministry panel, which is scheduled
to meet on 9 June 2011, could hike diesel/LPG and kerosene prices at the meeting.
We expect demand growth to be 4.6% in FY12
We expect consumer demand to drive an 8% growth in gasoline in FY11-14E.
Diesel demand may grow at 5% due to agricultural and industrial growth.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
UBS Investment Research
India Oil and Gas Sector
I ndia oil monthly: Issue 9
Monthly oil demand growth picks up
According to Reuters and PPAC data, India’s oil product demand rose 4.2% YoY
to 3.09mbpd in April 2011. The growth was supported by higher LPG, gasoline,
and jet fuel use. FY11 product demand rose 3.3% YoY, slightly below our
expectations.
Diesel demand growth slowed; gasoline, jet fuel maintain growth rates
We believe the anomalous increase MoM in diesel sales last month was a precursor
to the state elections that were held in May. As expected, diesel sales growth over
the previous month slowed down in April. The increase in gasoline prices dented
demand only slightly and it maintained its trend of YoY growth. Jet fuel demand
grew fastest after the Oil Marketing Companies reduced ATF prices by ~4% in line
with international trends. Bitumen demand fell most over the previous year, in line
with slow execution on infrastructure projects.
High diesel demand growth—reflects growth but also increased subsidy
For the year, diesel continued to be the most heavily used petroleum product,
accounting for a little less than half of oil demand. Fuel is subsidised and the
government loses ~Rs15/litre of diesel sold; while high diesel demand growth
reflects positively on the economy, it also points to the higher fiscal burden due to
the increased subsidy outgo. We expect that the ministry panel, which is scheduled
to meet on 9 June 2011, could hike diesel/LPG and kerosene prices at the meeting.
We expect demand growth to be 4.6% in FY12
We expect consumer demand to drive an 8% growth in gasoline in FY11-14E.
Diesel demand may grow at 5% due to agricultural and industrial growth.
No comments:
Post a Comment