UBS India: Monsoon Tracker 1 „

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UBS Investment Research
Asian Economic Comment
India: Monsoon Tracker 1
„ Rainfall - It's early days for the South West monsoon, but in general the
signs look good. Rainfall has been on average in most areas except NE
India which records a deficiency. This is an important rice-growing area
and rainfall here would need to change for a normal sowing pattern.
Reservoir levels to date are above last year's and above the 10 year
average.
„ Things to watch - The Meteorological Dept is due to also release a
second update on Long range forecast on Tuesday 21st with separate
forecasts for monthly rainfall (Jul-Aug) over the country as a whole and
seasonal rainfall over the 4 main regions of India. (The first Long Range
forecast (issued April) told us rainfall nationwide would be 'normal'.)
Sowing data by the Ministry of Agriculture is traditionally released in
the first fortnight of July.