India Pharma -: Will the next Teva be from India? Credit Suisse,

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● We contrasted expansion strategies of Indian generics with global
generic peers (Teva, Mylan, Watson, Sandoz, Actavis, Stada) to
determine portfolio gaps and strongholds for Indian generics in
our report, Will the next Teva be from India?
● In our view, organic growth of Indian firms should continue to be
strong as their portfolio mix is better (high Emerging markets and
low Europe) and market share gains continue in the US market.
Indian firms have quadrupled volume share to 17% in the US in
last five years though their scale is still a third of top five peers.
● About inorganics, we expect acquisitions to accelerate for Indian
firms given low market share of 5% in EMs and need to add
capabilities in the US to address a larger basket of the market, like
global generics. Indian firms are at a similar scale to Teva in
CY00, and historically, the market has rewarded Teva’s inorganic
strategy with market cap growth being similar to sales growth of
22% in the past 18 years.
● Sun Pharma looks best placed for acquisitions in the US and EMs
given (1) strong B/S (net cash: US$860 mn), (2) past acquisitions
were highly accretive and (3) promoters have high stake of 64%.